September 16, 2016

The Grade III CT Oaks is an interesting race around the bullring going seven-furlongs, and with ten fillies lined up, there is any number of possibilities with horses cutting back in distance, shipping across country and trying to overcome tough finishes in their last events. Much of the speed has drawn to the inside, and that could lead to a fast pace, so look for an outside closer to come on and take down a big share as well, in a race that sets things up nicely for the BC F&M Sprint.

1-Fleeting Affair (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Mb Stables)

Two time Graded Stakes winner Fleeting Spirit fell back through the middle stages of the Grade I Test last time out, but was able to re-rally for a minor placing and now should get a better trip over a fast track with speed to her outside. She was effective at this distance back in January before a long spell at route distances,, and while she might not have shown her best at SAR, she has enough talent to handle this class in the very least.

Analysis-Solid at this level but distance is the question

Fair Odds-8/1

2-Fight Song (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Sccj Stables)

Fight Song finally broke through for a solid win in the Duchess at WO last time out, and while every start has been an improvement, there is not enough to suggest that she will be able to move forward in this event to finish better than some of the outside runners. That speed rating was solid and she worked well at BEL in preparation, but the question is whether she will be forwardly placed in this spot, and if she is, she will at least be able to save ground over others.

Analysis-Got a big win last time but steps up to a tough level
Fair Odds-15/1

3-Poison Jane (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Sir Daniel Martin)

Poison Jane has had a very long campaign, but one that is also successful with eight top three placings and two recent wins in state-bred company, making her a middle choice against open level competition. She charged home to finish a co-second in the Grade III Seaway against older runners at WO last time out, but will most likely be the speed of the speed and try to take the field as far as she can at this tricky distance.

Analysis-Has had a solid but long campaign and that could test her

Fair Odds-10/1

4-Zenna The Ruler (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Night Mare Racing)

Toss out the debacle over the mud in the Test at SAR, and Zenna The Ruler is a solid contender in the CT Oaks with five wins in eight starts, including a score over one-mile in the Pine Stakes, albeit with only a modest 90-speed rating. She rolled to a 30-1 win in the Spring Fever, but seems to be one of those who loves California racing and will need to take her show on the road to prove she can handle open class fillies.

Analysis-CA star will need to travel well to win

Fair Odds-6/1

5-City Bus (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Tiratzo)

Since being purchased for only $17.500 back in January, City Bus has won three races and finished in the top three in all seven starts for her owner and will try to step up in Grade III company once again after runner-up finishes in the Mother Goose and the Test. She got away slowly in both and closed well into the blistering pace, and if the inside speed goes forward, she will have the best shot of any to make a late run and pick up all the pieces.

Analysis-Huge efforts all season long make her logical here

Fair Odds-3/1

6-Thats Mean (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

Thats Mean is a two-time stakes winner since being purchased for $90.000 in June, but those efforts have come in near wire-to-wire fashion, and she will have to contend with a bevy of early speed runners here, making her task that much more difficult. Her effort in the Jersey Girl was probably her best, and she has an excellent pair of workouts at five-furlongs, but the feeling is that she might not be fast enough as the leader and unless she gets a clear lead, she would be in tough against this group right now.

Analysis-Excellent since being bought and could surprise

Fair Odds-10/1

7-Command And Conquer (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-John Henry)

A winner over the grass, then a huge $600.000, Command And Conquer has been a non-factor at huge odds in three Grade I events, and while the drop in class will certainly assist her, there are so many questions to be answered before backing this filly at any kind of price. She has closed modestly in each start, but has never been good enough to battle going short, and with so many issues lately, you have to make her a longshot until she shows more.

Analysis-Not at her best in Grade I and this is still tough

Fair Odds-25/1

8-Broom Line (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-Sir Daniel Martin)

Broom Line has been holding her own in turf sprints and could easily have found a race at HRP, but looks to move back to the main track here in the CT Oaks and will use her outside post to get her into the race early and make a solid run. Seven-furlong workouts have been good, and she races for a high percentage barn, with an inside stablemate who might set the pace and make things easier for her if she chooses to close.

Analysis-A solid threat for the win with her speedy stablemate

Fair Odds-5/1

9-Here Comes Trouble (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Canny Lodge)

If she had raced better in the Victory Ride, Here Comes Trouble would likely have been the favourite, but she failed to make a forward run, and that kind of effort is not the type you want to see from a filly who faces the same class and a much tougher track. One of the far draws will not assist her chances in making an early run, and the best hope for her is to take back, hope for a duel and to make a big run into the short stretch with enough momentum to pass others.

Analysis-Failed at BEL and that increases her odds

Fair Odds-12/1

10-You Little Beauty (Three-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Australia Wide)

A state-bred winner at WO right off the hop, You Little Beauty is easily at her best going shorter and will aim to get back on track with a top notch effort from the widest draw, especially if she can save any kind of ground. Unfortunately, she has never posted a huge speed rating and faces some very talented fillies; on paper, she will have to improve by many points to hit the board and that is unlikely, even coming from one of the best barns in HRP history.

Analysis-Wide post hurts her speedy chances

Fair Odds-12/1

Overall

The Grade III CT Oaks is a real grab-bag of talent from the three-year-old division, but City Bus has certainly faced some tough customers as of late and held her own, making this drop in class very logical if she hopes to continue her big season. Broom Line has a quick stablemate to her inside and seems to be improving at this level, so look for another good effort from her while Zenna The Ruler has been excellent all season and shows speed ratings going short that are among the best in the field.

Prediction

Win-City Bus (3/1)

Place-Broom Line (5/1)

Show-Zenna The Ruler (6/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES