April 22, 2016

You know that Spring is in the air when both the road to the KYD and the WO racing meeting are in full swing and on Saturday, things continue to heat up north of the border with the Providence Stakes, a six-furlong sprint for ON-bred foals with a solid $125.000 purse. Won by future Smile Sprint and Grade I Whitney winner Jolly Be Great in its first year of existence, it has also been a stepping stone for multiple state-bred stakes winner Crush, a son of the aforementioned, as well as multiple Grade I winning filly Mondo Grosso and near $1,000.000 earner Quasi Normal, who has provided owner Night Rider Stables one of their two back-to-back wins in the event. They are looking for a three-peat but in their way stands three-time winner Team 7 Illusions and powerhouses Mb Stables and Australia Wide, setting up a battle for the big time owners for what could be the start of many top prizes throughout the meeting.

1-Impressive Force (Five-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)

The last two winners of the Providence for owner Night Rider Stables have been heavily involved in top class racing but Impressive Force does not carry those credentials and will need to handle the competition if he hopes to graduate to the upper levels. A five-year-old with only six career starts, he holds one of the best last out speed ratings in the field but that came in the GP mud and it will take a big effort from the rail to see him get to the lead and hold it the entire six-furlongs.

Analysis-Has shown big speed in the past but faces a tougher challenge

Fair Odds-5/1

2-Ferro (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Team 7 Illusions)

A stakes runner in his debut at WO last September, Ferro became a stakes-winner against three-year-olds at AQU two back in the Rego Park and while the Bay Shore was a disaster, it might have been at a distance that was too long and he will look to regroup going six-furlongs instead. His speed ratings continue to improve and he does have knowledge of the track but this is a tough field for a sophomore and while he might be good, you have to feel that this is a stepping stone to restricted races over the course down the line.

Analysis-Takes on older and might be using this as a benchmark

Fair Odds-8/1

3-Quick Application (Six-year-old bay horse / Owner-Hacienda Don Tito)

Quick Application has tried stakes company only once in his 23 race career and ended up winning the Overskate on this same track last September but that came over a sloppy going and he will need to handle a fast track to win once again. Some even efforts against starter company do not bode well for his chances in moving up the class ladder and the move back to the shortest distance he has raced over since his debut is also a concern, making him a longer shot that he would be at this time last year.

Analysis-Has not really grown with his age

Fair Odds-12/1

4-Clown Candy (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)

In too tough last season facing both the Queens Plate and Prince Of Wales fields, Clown Candy was dropped down into easier company off the layoff and has found a way to win three of his last five including his last going short, and that sets him up nicely for a good effort here at his home track. Speed ratings in his last three have been dazzling and his owner is a tyrant at WO with multiple meet titles so look for his gelding to continue his good fortune and provide another big cheque for his connections.

Analysis-Impressive last time but needs to find enough at the shorter trip

Fair Odds-3/1

5-Smokinngrinnin (Five-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Wolfs Den)

Smokinngrinnin went from turf sprinting to turf marathons but fell off the wagon in a pair of Grade II events at GP, leading to both a change in distance and a change in surface to the dirt, which he has only raced over once in the last two years. That effort at SAR was a tiring fifth at 1000-1 and now, he is asked to take on some crack sprinters; all in all, a tough request for this five-year-old and one that will see him as a longshot until he shows an affinity for the surface.

Analysis-Tries dirt again but has never had success

Fair Odds-25/1

6-Asereje (Five-year-old gray horse / Owner-Rockitpad)

The only win Asereje has in the last year is a going-away effort at TAM over a good main track and with suspect form over a fast surface, and a big jump in class, he will be considered one of the bigger prices on Saturday with eyes on just hitting the board. He was a longshot in two stakes races over this course last year and could not finish in the top three and against similar company but at a shorter trip, he will have to find more in the lane if he wants to upset the bigger chances.

Analysis-Has not been able to get the job done at this class

Fair Odds-15/1

7-My Friend Bernie (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Australia Wide)

My Friend Bernie won his maiden and the restricted Bull Page in quick succession as a juvenile but has been unable to move forward as a three-year-old, yet still jumps in class to face older runners and will try to handle the six-furlongs over this familiar surface. A workout on April 8 at GP was amazing, he does seem to enjoy sprinting and he comes from a barn with a high level of experience winning at this track so look for a decent effort from the outside post, as long as he does not expel too much early energy.

Analysis-Excellent as a juvenile and hopes to regain that lost form

Fair Odds-4/1

8-Crimson Devil (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Mo Mentum Farm)

A three-year-old has never defeated older runners in the Providence and it is unlikely that the winner will come from the farthest gate but in Crimson Devil, you do get a horse who knows how to win but usually at much lower levels. Three straight wins to start his career saw him get claimed twice and sold again and for his new connections, he has moved forward but probably not enough to make a mark at this class just yet.

Analysis-Faces much tougher than he is used to in his career

Fair Odds-15/1

Overall

There are only two entrants in the Providence Stakes field coming in off last out victories and both of them factor into the top three placings with Clown Candy as the top choice, coming off a huge win at PRX and with speed ratings that are clearly the best in the field. My Friend Bernie is an intriguing entrant with huge wins over this course as a juvenile, nothing to show from his current campaign and plenty to prove, while Impressive Force was truly impressive in a wire-to-wire at GP but will face at fast track and will need to prove that might over the better going.

Prediction

Win-Clown Candy (3/1)

Place-My Friend Bernie (4/1)

Show-Impressive Force (5/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded