February 26, 2016
The Grade II Fountain Of Youth Stakes has been a beacon for many three-year-olds over the years and even having produced two Horse Of The Year winners, it has never produced a KYD winner and each of the 12 entrants assembled on Saturday will be hoping to buck that trend. Graded Stakes winners are scattered throughout the field but horses to the outside will take much of the betting interest, with an undefeated colt taking on an exciting gelding who rides a six-race streak into GP, but with the added pressure of going slightly longer for the first time in his improving career.
1-Dogs Got Wings (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Downwind Stables)
Owner Downwind Stables already has two horses in contention for the Roses and looks to add a third from the rail with Dogs Got Wings, who just missed last time out in the Pasco but has also gone long with mild success. He has made the perfect progression in stakes company in Florida but now ships to GP rather than await the TAM Derby and that has to be seen as a vote of confidence, even if his speed ratings are lower than most in the field.
Analysis-Stakes winner seems to be moving forward
Fair Odds-12/1
2-Bolkonski (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Blushing Meadows)
A N1X allowance winner last time at GP over a good course, Bolkonski makes a huge leap into Grade II company on Saturday and based on speed and distance alone, looks to be a longshot against proven commodities. A confirmed closer, he carries more weight than he has ever done in the past and without any experience around two-turns, it will be left to his jockey to find the right path and that is easier said than done in a race like this.
Analysis-Does not have the necessary credentials to win
Fair Odds-25/1
3-Custer Of The West (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)
A huge figure maiden winner and Grade III victor at two, Custer Of The West failed to menace in the Holy Bull last time over this same course but might be able to make some headway here if he learns to relax a little bit more. Speed ratings are very consistent but need to be better if he hopes to progress; add to the fact that his owner is off to a slower than expected start and you might have a gelding who is in need of class relief before showing his best.
Analysis-Bad effort could signal a downward form cycle
Fair Odds-12/1
4-Pentagon (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Pentagon was a near wire-to-wire stakes winner of the Grade II Best Pal after being purchased for a huge sum and a recent auction purchase saw him change hands once again, and he responded with a very close third in the Jerome to kick off 2016. Now he gets a chance to move forward off some very good workouts and on paper, could be a horse with a big future if he can find a way to sit calmly and make a single, effective run.
Analysis-Not as good against much tougher but this is reachable
Fair Odds-8/1
5-Edwin Drood (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)
Edwin Drood scratched out of the Risen Star to come to GP and with a better post position, could be a better factor than he was at FG off a sixth as the favourite in the Smarty Jones last time out. That being said, he was unable to make any ground despite fractions that clearly played into his closing abilities and unless he can move forward from the middle here, he looks to be a horse who will be left behind turning for home versus tougher rivals.
Analysis-Did not show enough at OP to warrant a big look
Fair Odds-15/1
6-Lord Byron (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Jerry Garcia Racing)
Owner Jerry Garcia Racing has won this race three times in the past and comes back in search of a fourth with Lord Byron, a two-time winner who was most recently second behind a runaway winner in the restricted CAC Derby. He has proven effective over both dirt and turf and knows how to stalk the pace and press on down the lane; assets that cannot be overlooked in a race that is looking for a closer when the pace slows down after two tight GP turns.
Analysis-Moves up in class and could be the best closer
Fair Odds-6/1
7-Ghost Star (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
Ghost Star has been first or second in his last seven starts and finally came through for a stakes win last time out at SUN, in his second start for the connections, and while he could have stayed there for the SUN Derby, with a huge purse, he moves to GP with hopes of running away like he has in his last two. His 97-speed rating is clearly the best in the field and came at the expense of a decent field, in track record time, and that kind of race is enough to win here in spades, even if he does not have to with the FL Derby well within his scope down the line.
Analysis-Impressive purchase looks to impressive in a big way
Fair Odds-7/2
8-City Grounds (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
While Ghost Star might be the proven commodity, City Grounds is the hidden talent and coming in off two straight wins including an allowance score with Lasix and blinkers in a quick final time, he has all the right tools to move forward and make a good account of himself in the FoY. Speedy workouts at AQU could seem him split away from his stablemate and go back to NY for the Wood Memorial but for right now, he enters on a role and could be the dark horse in a field loaded with outside talent and things to prove.
Analysis-Lightly raced but talent is certainly there
Fair Odds-6/1
9-Stolen Thunder (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Riggins Racing)
Stolen Thunder has been steadily improving in stakes company and was fourth in the Nashua back in November but comes into the FoY off a layoff and on paper, does not have the progression that others have, making him a longshot. He has been high odds in all three of his recent starts and will be once again on Saturday; unless he has found a new footing right off the bat, it will be tough to take him at face value and he will probably need the start before he shows his best.
Analysis-Has to do more to make his presence felt
Fair Odds-25/1
10-Palestinian (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Nakamura Stables)
Although he has never faced a field of this quality before, Palestinian enters the Fountain Of Youth having won six in a row and with an outside gate, will be using all of his early momentum to try and get to the lead and at least save some ground. His score in the Sham at SA could have seen him stay there for the SA Derby but he makes the move back to Florida where he scored in the Smooth Air at CRC and with proven speed, could be loose on the lead early with plenty left for the drive.
Analysis-Rides a huge streak into his toughest test
Fair Odds-4/1
11-Compress (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Cherrytree Hill Farm)
Undefeated in four starts with scores in both the Dania Beach on turf and the Grade II Holy Bull over the main track, Compress is the son of a stakes winner who could surprise once again at huge odds, with the only knock against him being a far outside stall which will force him to retreat into a closing position. If things become tough, he might not have the room to close into the speed like he did last time out and facing a smarter field, he will have to overcome some obstacles if he hopes to keep his perfect record intact.
Analysis-Faces challenges but has overcome them before
Fair Odds-3/1
12-Who Stole My Sock (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Jkk Racing Stables)
The addition of Lasix in his last could not help Who Stole My Sock from finishing any better than sixth and now, he gets the outside post and a much tougher field; factors that will increase his odds heavily come Saturday. He is not proven going long on the main track and while the turf to dirt angle is nice, it will not be as effective here and he needs to improve to have a chance of hitting the board.
Analysis-Outside post hurts his chances
Fair Odds-30/1
Overall
The Grade II Fountain Of Youth Stakes carries some huge cache leading into the FL Derby and it falls on the shoulders of some very good three-year-olds to pick up the mantle and lead the charge into CD, with the undefeated Compress trying to build on his Holy Bull score in a big way. Despite one of the widest draws, he will get my support on top ahead of Ghost Star in second, coming in off two blowout wins out West, and Palestinian, who rides a huge winning streak in and could surprise off a docile and workmanlike win in the Sham.
Prediction
Win-Compress (3/1)
Place-Ghost Star (7/2)
Show-Palestinian (4/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
