The Toboggan (Grade 3)- $150.000 Purse
AQU- For Four Year Olds and Upward
Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
January 28, 2023

While other tracks have bigger races on Saturday, AQU is not completely shut out of the action as it plays host to the 19th running of the Grade 3 Toboggan, a seven-furlong sprint on the main track. There have been slight variations to the conditions of the race throughout time, with it being six furlongs for over half of its life, as well being a time where three-year-olds were allowed to participate. Conditions have been consistent since 2018, and the purse level has not seen much change. Last year, Angelos Stable celebrated victory with Rock N Rattle as the gelding came from off the pace to get the win. The horse is still active today, but Angelos has another in here to try and defend his title. Let’s take a look at him and the eleven others making up the full field!

#1- On The Turning Away (Gdp Inc., ridden by O Moreno)- Over his 35-race career, On The Turning Away has done a little bit of everything in regard to his distance and surface, and just three back he has a good looking third place finish in the Shadwell Turf Mile. However, he has had plenty of success as a sprinter, and once was a participant in the BC Sprint (2021). His last two races have been overnights, and he earned a win on New Years Eve at GP with a 99 SRF.

#2- First Down Dash (Axeman, ridden by G G Richards)- A horse that knows how to win, with eleven trips to the winners circle out of his 34 races. He’s been in a handful of stakes, and he has earned a few ungraded wins, with the most recent one coming two back at DMR in the Grant Stakes for CA-breds. He followed that up well by finally hitting the board in a graded race, placing third in the Grade 3 Mr Prospector, beaten only by a neck for the win.

#3- Well Done Charley (Night Rider Stables, ridden by Be Hernandez)- Well done to the trainer for finding this one in a claimer, needing just $4.000 to pick him up at TUP last February. Night Rider promptly moved him up in class, with one allowance and then into the ungraded ranks. They’re still looking for their first win together, but he has been second three times in his five starts since then, and third in another. Has some tough company here to take on, but I think he can be competitive with them.

#4- Croton Road (Invicta Group Llc, ridden by J A Gomez)- There was once a lot of hope surrounding this horse, as he ran in the Grade 1 Hopeful and SA Derby, among others, but never got the job done there. Prior trainer Fractious exposed him in a $22.500 claimer and Invicta Group Llc won the three-way shake. A month later, Croton Road paid that back and a lot more by winning the $250.000 St. Louis Derby at FP and despite finishing sixth in the PA Derby a month later he only missed by a length. He’s been idle since October and cuts back a bit on distance here.

#5- Queens Commander (Angelos Stable, ridden by A S Worrie)- In November 2021, Angelos Stable lost this one in a claimer for $20.000. Eight months later, he took the opportunity to get the gelding back for the same $20.000 claiming price and did so. It was a great move, since Queens Commander has won three of four since then, highlighted by the Grade 3 Vigil Stakes in September. That field featured Dutty John Crow, Junior, and Night Creature, so it was an impressive win, and the gelding is capable of doing the same to this crowd.

#6- Dancing Rattler (Martyparty, ridden by K Carmouche)- The Timber Rattler gelding has won half of his starts (7 of 14), with three victories coming in ungraded stakes. None of them particularly jump out at you as being the most attractive of the group, but it does show that Dancing Rattler can be counted on to run a competitive race. He rarely runs poorly, but the lack of a signature win to this point holds him back. This is his graded debut, technically, but the Indian Summer in 2021 and the Harrods Creek last September were graded quality.

#7- Crypto (Maxmillion Farm, ridden by T D Houghton)- Just a few pennies shy of $700.000 for his career, and he has flourished with Maxmillion. He had been fine before, but the geld upon picking him up in private sales (for $175.000) may have been what moved him to the next level. Crypto’s value would increase with three straight graded victories highlighted by the Grade 2 Vosburgh right here in October. It was then off to the BC Sprint where he was a respectable fifth, and then he’d run second in the Malibu. Unlike what he is named after, I think he’s a safe investment.

#8- Wifi Connection (M.a.r Racing, ridden by E Cancel)- This is a big jump in class for a horse that has predominantly been in claimers for his entire career. M.a.r Racing picked him up with a $17.500 claim in early December but decided his aspirations would be much bigger. Back in 2021, he had one stake he ran in. I do like his consistency, and he has been in the top of four of every race he has been in since February 2021, so I think he has earned a chance to see what he can do and we will see how he stacks up on Saturday. Hopefully, if not a win, it can be something the trainer can build on.

#9- Crimson Dragon (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by L A Rodriguez)- In December 2021, Crimson Dragon pulled off a win in the Queens County Handicap right here. He has not hit the board in the nine starts since. The trainer has not backed down from running him at this level and he’s more of a horse that finishes in the middle of the pack rather than at the back. Maybe, he just needs to catch a break.

#10- Hard To Forgive (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by T McCarthy)- This will be the 27th career start for this five-year-old and he will be looking for his first graded win. You’ll see a lot of ungraded stakes in his past performances, and competitive runs, such as the second place in the $200.000 Blame. In October, he finally got that stake win with the $100.000 Appreciation Mile at PRX. Despite that, he’s another one of the horses in here that I don’t dislike but he just doesn’t have that appeal to me against the rivals he faces here.

#11- Tormented (Whitewater Stables, ridden by Os Gomez)- Spent the majority of his career running for Mb Stables, and was on the KYD trail in 2021 for a little while. Eventually, he would become a turf sprinter and ran in the BC Turf Sprint that year. He’d be sold in the September auction for just $15.000, a price that surprises me and he’s looked good in a couple of graded starts in the Whitewater silks. I think he has something left, and even if he doesn’t factor into this result, he’ll be productive, at least for a while, in 2023. Wish I was paying attention to that auction!

#12- Lokoya Road (Establo Pichon, ridden by J A Vargas Jr)- Started on the outside is this WV-bred, who has had success when going against fellow horses from that state. After not enjoying a home state advantage in the CT Classic, Lokoya Road defeated three rivals in the WV OJ Breeders Classic in October. A run at SAR, where he was second in a July allowance can give hope here as well if that form can be duplicated. It’s a tough assignment, though, and the post doesn’t help.

Prediction: 7-5-11-3

— NS

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES