September 24, 2016

A stalwart of three-year-old racing in the American Midwest, the Grade III OK Derby will be run once again at RP on Sunday afternoon and has attracted a field of six high-class sophomores for a large $400.000 purse, with many coming in from big races including the Longacres Mile and even the Grade I Travers. After being a fixture of racing at HRP for at the start, it took a long hiatus before coming back in 2014, with both Diamond Sales and Captain General using it as a springboard to a win in the Grade I Clark. This year, however, the race takes on added significant as a big leap to the BC Classic with many of the three-year-olds trying to cement their position while earnings some good reviews heading into the biggest race of the year.

1-Champagne Supernova (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Eastern Equine)

Two-year-old champion Champagne Supernova has had a difficult 2016 to say the least but a return to a shorter distance in the Longacres Mile against older runners might have been the turning point he needed and he could be looking for this race as a marker for his ambitions for either the Classic or the Dirt Mile. Regular jockey R Bejarano hops aboard and he has been simply dazzling in workouts so look for a quick break from the rail and a race that could be on the pace, with that final furlong being the real challenge.

Analysis-Champ could be rounding into form at the right time

Fair Odds-3/1

2-Lord Byron (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Jerry Garcia Racing)

Lord Byron was supposed to break through in the Travers and was in contention through the opening stages but came up empty in the drive and will simply have to show more if he wants to beat some of the same horses, and some new shooters. Speed ratings have really hit their peak at races shorter than his nine-furlong trip and although he was quick at BEL in a recent work, he is not at the same caliber as some of his stablemates or rivals and would need to show improved late pace to hit the board.

Analysis-Faded at SAR and faces similar here

Fair Odds-12/1

3-Scott The Great (Three-year-old gray colt / Owner-Night Mare Racing)

Coming from one of the most impressive mares in HRP history and as a sibling to some of the greatest producers we have seen, Scott The Great as a chance to jump up to that level after so many close finishes in state-bred company. There is really nothing to say about his efforts in the Canadian TC, expect that he was unable to close enough to win, and a repeat of any of those efforts would be good enough to hit the board, although his win-shy prowess makes it difficult to make him the favourite.

Analysis-Excellent up north and should be contending here
Fair Odds-5/1

4-Moment Of Madness (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

You had to think that Moment Of Madness was a real threat in the Travers with a good middle post and while he made a solid move to the head of the lane, he was one of many who stalled and that makes him a longer shot than he should be, especially facing the winner of that race. A more modest pace set-up might have him closer to the pace and in a small field, that could be an advantage if others break slow and he is able to get into a two-wide placing and save some ground.

Analysis-Always seems to be there but never come out on top

Fair Odds-8/1

5-Copper Beast (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-John Henry)

Copper Beast won first time out for the new connections in the AR Derby and won first time out for the second new connections in the Grade I Travers and now, looks to move to the forefront of his division with a third stakes win this season against rivals he has beaten already. He sat the perfect trip at SAR and capitalized with a dead-heat win and while his co-winner has not been seen, others have come out of the Midsummer Derby with good efforts, which bodes well for his chances against this type.

Analysis-Deserves to be the favourite off his last

Fair Odds-5/2

6-Lucky Sexxyflex (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Downwind Stables)

You cannot make any case for Lucky Sexxyflex to hit the board in the OK Derby off a free maiden win and a 82-1 upset against claiming company at SAR last time out and even if that race was a track-record, it might still not be enough to come close to this field. The only saving grace might be his workouts, which give him a glimpse of hope for backers but on paper, he is not fast enough and has not faced this level of competition and that makes him the longest shot by far.

Analysis-No chance

Fair Odds-50/1

Overall

Grade I Travers winner Copper Beast looms the likely choice in the Grade III OK Derby but that comes with a grain of salt and he will have to be at his best, or better, to upend the champion from last year, who seems to be getting good. In Champagne Supernova, you have a colt who comes with big shoes to fill but one who filled them with style at PRM and could be dangerous, with Scott The Great always there for a piece but unable to close enough to get all the marbles.

Prediction

Win-Copper Beast (5/2)

Place-Champagne Supernova (3/1)

Show-Scott The Great (5/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES