The Smith (Grade 3)- $100.000 Purse
AQU- For Three Year Olds and Upward
One Mile and Three Eighths on the Inner Turf
November 21, 2020
The Smith is a smaller graded stake that is anything but short in terms of its distance. It will send a field of eleven a total of eleven furlongs around the inner turf course as it runs for the 16th time. As is the norm for this type of race, it features a mixture of horses that are dropping down from higher purses and others looking to move their career forward into those levels. Last year, the race was won by Aml Racing’s People Doubted, a horse that entered the race off of disappointment in the Pattison a month before. The horse remains active and has had an occasional strong start, but has not been able to build on his run in the Smith last year. Let’s take a look at those going to post for this year’s race.
#1- Rainbow Walk (Czech Out Farms, ridden by M Franco)- You can go back in this horse’s past performances and see stake attempts, but recently, he has only been found in claiming races. Czech Out Farms acquired him in early October with a $25.000 claim, after he was third in a race at CRC. This is quite a jump, and the speed figures must become much better than what they have been for him to have a shot in this race.
#2- Thanks For Nothing (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by J R Velazquez)- Showed what he was capable of in the Grade 1 Man O War, and eleven furlong turf event at BEL, coming from behind to win back in May. Then, he lived up to his name, but that is meant as a good thing. When the trend was downward, he was sharp last month in the Hirsch Turf Classic, again at BEL, to be third. With the competition being less here, there are not many excuses for him to not have a good showing here.
#3- Wired Up (Rampage Stable, ridden by J Rosario)- Finished second in the 2019 Hirsch Turf Classic, but was never able to build on it. After disappointing performances a few graded stakes, it was down to optional claimers. Even in those, he was not winning, but was at least hitting the board. Finally, it was back to the winners circle in his last start, a SA optional claimer, so the trainer hopes he can find his stride at this level again.
#4- Welcome To My World (Maxmillion Farm, ridden by K Carmouche)- This six year old gelding has managed seven wins in his 22 career starts, with the majority of them coming in overnights. He has had a few cracks at Grade 3’s in his career and one of them was right here last year when the race was known as the Smith Handicap. He was third, and within a length of the win. This is a horse that always seems to be in the mix at the end but has not been able to pull off a signature win. AQU has been a good track for him, though.
#5- Maybe Tonight (Alydar Stables, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- Another veteran racehorse, making his 26th start, and hoping it will result in his seventh win. Those wins have all come in overnights, as like Welcome To My World, he has not been able to get the graded win in the handful attempts that he has made at it. He does come off a good showing, running third in the Grade 3 Sycamore. So, using the way too obvious question, will it be maybe tonight? Usually a reliable horse, and knows how to be near the front more often not.
#6- Secret Dream (Night Rider Stables, ridden by E Cancel)- Spent the early portion of his career running in claimers, but after Night Rider snagged him for $19.000, he’d be placed higher. He’d send him a little longer than he had been running previously, and he was second in a PA-bred stake, the $100.000 Crowd Pleaser at PRX. He followed that up with a win in the $100.000 Jersey Derby, and now looks to grab a graded win, as he stretches a distance a little more.
#7- Steel Home (Nakamura Stables, ridden by J Bravo)- This five year old gelding has had a strong year, with three of his six career wins coming here in 2020. However, he has yet to pick up a win in any of the seven graded stakes that he has attempted, and if we add ungraded stakes without claiming crown conditions, that goes to nine. Of course, he did win the CC Emerald, which was a nice win in December 2018, but the trainer certainly wants more than that. With three wins in his last four starts in overnights, it can’t be denied that he comes here running well, but will this be the time that he finally steps up at this level?
#8- Brave Diplomat (Nakamura Stables, ridden by N Juarez)- Starting next to his stablemate, this Chai Latte gelding has won five of sixteen races in his career. However, he too, is looking to pick up a win in the graded level after two disappointing starts. Though, he might simply be hoping for some sun, as each of those two races were on off tracks, and he was in very good form going into them. He should have that here, so it will be interesting to see how much of a difference it could make. This is also the longest he will be asked to run in his career.
#9- So Lonely (Diablo Diablo, ridden by D Davis)- Back in June, So Lonely ran a great race and finished second in the Grade 1 Manhattan at BEL. Since then, however, the results have been quite ugly. 11th of 14, 9th of 11, and 10th of 12, losing by eight, nine, then six lengths respectively in each of them. So, how do we get excited about So Lonely here? Well, two of those duds were on off tracks, which we can give him a pass on since we don’t expect rain here on Saturday. But then, you still have the last one. He is dropping down in class, which is needed. I expect him to be better, but still can’t pick him.
#10- King Que Niagra (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by J Lezcano)- Purchased by the trainer for $200.000 on April Fool’s Day, but the purchase has not been foolish since then. D J C would eventually move the horse to the grass, and he has run on this surface with success in his last four starts. He would win the $100.000 Manila in July, and his last two starts have seen him get his picture taken with the winner at the wire: running 2nd in the Grade 3 Singspiel Stakes, and then third in the Nearctic. The Singspiel is the race to look at, and if he runs that way again, he can pull it off. I feel good about him.
#11- Rhossili (Asgar, ridden by J L Ortiz)- Drawing the outside post, this three year old gelding is hoping to return to the form that he was on at the beginning of the year. That led him to be moved to the KYD trail for a bit, but that did not go well. He has not really recovered fully from that, and while there was nothing wrong with his efforts in his last two races, they do not instill confidence here.
Prediction: 10-4-2-6
— NS
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
