September 28, 2016
The final leg of the FL Stallion Series for colts and geldings is the $500.000 In Reality, named for a very prolific colt from the 1980’s, and a field of six has signed on to go 1 1/16th miles in hopes of establishing themselves before the BC Juvenile in a few week’s time. Smile, Holy Bull and Big Drama are probably the best three winners of this event in real-life while last year’s HRP winner, Champagne Supernova, parlayed his win here into a championship, so there is precedent for one of these colts to really step up and use this as a means to a very big end.
1-Devil Water (Two-year-old black colt / Owner-Mb Stables)
Out of a hugely popular sire and from a stakes winning dam, Devil Water started off his career with promise and has done well going shorter in the first two legs of the Stallion Series, facilitating the move up to a longer distance to really showcase his ability. Speed figures are some of the best in the field and his closing kick is always in full effect, making him one of the logical choices to handle the stretch out in distance better than most.
Analysis-Looks to be the best suited to handle two-turns
Fair Odds-2/1
2-Brontasaurus (Two-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Blushing Meadows)
A maiden winner at SAR who came up for third in the Affirmed over this same course, Brontasaurus faces a familiar cast of characters and while he will also benefit from the move to a route of ground, he might not be as good as his inside rival. He will have to try and get the jump on the likely favourite or risk tracking that one around the oval and unless he gets an aggressive ride, look for a top three placing but not necessarily a winning one right now.
Analysis-Could be good if he gets the right ride
Fair Odds-5/1
3-Zigmunderful (Two-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Big Guns Stables)
Zigmunderful has already faced the best of the two-year-old division in races like the KY Juvenile and Bashford Manor and came away with a big win from off the pace in the Affirmed, making him one of the top horses versus rivals he has already beaten. The only concern with this colt is that he tends to break slowly and while that might be okay with a quick pace to chase, the fractions might be slow here and that might mute his ability to get up in time, against others who will be much closer to the leader.
Analysis-Will have to be quicker from the gate to be effective
Fair Odds-3/1
4-Sweep The Mach (Two-year-old gray colt / Owner-Night Rider Stables)
Sweep The Mach won a minor maiden race at BTP two starts back but was unable to get anything going in the Tyro at MTH and will be switching back to the dirt in search of renewed form for his new connections. He has never been farther than 5.5-furlongs and is now asked to go an extra 3-furlongs so the question will be one of stamina and for this handicapper, it is a huge question that will need to be answered first before backing him for the win.
Analysis-Speedy type will need to carry it two-turns
Fair Odds-20/1
5-Single One (Two-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Running Farms)
A maiden after two starts and a non-factor against open company at MTH last time out, Single One races for a new owner yet still has to be considered the longest shot on the board against winners, stakes winners and future stars. Workouts have been decent but this is not the right spot for him and after testing these waters, the move back to maiden company will be the best option.
Analysis-Longshot, plain and simple
Fair Odds-50/1
6-Good Authority (Two-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Mb Stables)
Good Authority was fourth as the favourite in the Grade I DMR Futurity but posted the best speed rating of anyone in the In Reality field and will be another one who benefits from the stretch out to 1 1/16 miles, much like his stablemate. He is another who should be able to handle the added distance but has never faced state-bred company and while some might say this is a drop in class, others will say that this is a tougher race and only time and the right trip will tell us just how good he is.
Analysis-Big run at DMR but this could be even tougher
Fair Odds-4/1
Overall
Handling the stretch out to 1 1/16 miles will be the big key in the FL Stallion Series-In Reality at GP on Saturday afternoon and on paper, Devil Water looks to be best suited from the inside to get the right trip and the jump on his rivals. Zigmunderful came from well off the pace last time out to beat the likely choice but might not get the right pace scenario while Good Authority ships from DMR off a big speed figure but might be facing an even better field despite it being a state-bred race.
Prediction
Win-Devil Water (2/1)
Place-Zigmunderful (3/1)
Show-Good Authority (4/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
