The BEL Oaks (Grade 1)- $500.000 Purse
AQU- For Fillies Three Years Old
One Mile and Three Sixteenths on the Turf
July 6, 2024

After a few weeks that were not exactly loaded with big races, we have ourselves a busy weekend at the Big A, with many key races. One of them is the BEL Oaks, which is a Grade 1 for three-year-old fillies on the turf. While the $500.000 purse is a big one, this race has seen larger, and went for $1,000.000 between 2014 and 2019. Last year was when we saw the reduction to the present level, and it has remained constant for 2024. It should also be mentioned that this is a slightly shorter distance than what we have seen when the race was held at BEL. Bombing For Peace was the winner last year for Jerry Garcia Racing, but she has not won again. She ran through a disappointing run of form afterwards but did run third in the Eatontown a few weeks ago, so maybe she should not be written off yet. This year, we have ten heading to the gate, so let’s meet them now:

1- Turquoise Tide (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by F Pennington)- This filly made her turf debut in late May at the $100.000 for PA-Breds, and it could not have gone any better. She would begin the race at the back of the field but came on strong in the stretch to earn the win as a 14/1 longshot. Previously, she had ran in a lot of PA-Bred stakes on the dirt with decent success, but no wins. Can she step it up to a Grade 1? You won’t know unless you try.

2- Gormley (Royalty Stables, ridden by P Lopez)- The trainer was not discouraged by Gormley’s poor performance in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride Stakes and it’s a good thing she wasn’t! Since then, Gormley has won three in a row, heading west to take an optional claimer at SA before coming here to AQU for her last two races. She has liked it on this racetrack, winning the $150.000 Memories of Silver in April, and then the Grade 2 Wonder Again a month later. She should like it here as well, and it will be interesting to see how she handles the toughest competition of her life thus far.

3- Bella Latte (Fractious, ridden by Mario Gutierrez)- She was in the Herecomesthebride Stakes as well, and was able to pick a fourth-place check there. Things improved for her as well after that race, winning two of her last three. She not crossed paths with Gormley since then, and her victories came in the Grade 2 Appalachian at KEE as well as the Grade 3 Regret at CD, where the soft turf was no issue at all for her. Bella Latte may have a pretty high ceiling as far as her potential here, and a win in the BEL Oaks would be huge for her.

4- Reaper Lightning (Fractious, ridden by R L Moore)- This will be the third race in a row that Reaper Lightning has run against her stablemate, Bella Latte. The “series” is tied at one, as this filly defeated her stablemate in the Edgewood, but finished third to her in the Regret. Both of them have hit the board in each of the races, and it should be mentioned that both were on soft turf and that is something that might be a factor again as there is a 61% chance of isolated showers here on Saturday, but we are four days out. Going back a little further, Reaper Lightning was a BC Juvenile Fillies Turf participant, but did not cash a check.

5- Pragmatic (Mb Stables, ridden by M Franco)- After breaking her maiden on the dirt, Pragmatic was moved to the grass for an allowance at HOU that she won. She would then follow that up very well at PIM where she won the $100.000 Hilltop Stakes by two lengths. Now it is about testing her, and to see just how much more that she is capable. You have to feel good right now that Pragmatic has great potential based on those margins of victory, and even if she does not have a big race here, don’t forget about her.

6- Superface Party (Mb Stables, ridden by F Prat)- The second of three runners that Mb Stables sends to the starting gate, and Superface Party will be most remembered for placing second in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf last year on only a week of rest. In the week prior, she won the $135.000 Flower right here at AQU, which likely secured her berth in the BC. Since then, she’s been hit and miss, with a couple of not very encouraging performances in the Herecomesthebride and Appalachian, especially when you consider there are multiple runners here that also ran in them. Superface Party was a lot better in the Wonder Again, though, running second.

7- Right As Rain (Alydar Stables, ridden by S X Bridgmohan)- Theoretically, you would think that she would like to see that there as a 61% chances of showers four days before the race, but her two off track starts thus far were mediocre, but still earned fourth place checks. Struggled in the Miss PS last time out, so she will be heading to the grass for just the second time in her career. The previous time is when she broke her maiden, last October. The works are good, so now it is time for her to translate that to better on-track success.

8- Let Me Explain (Mb Stables, ridden by J R Velazquez)- With as well as she has run on the dirt this year, it might be easy to forget that she won the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf last fall. That’s the last that she has run on the grass, and certainly the way she handled the KYO preps showed Mb Stables made the right call. She won the Honeybee at OP to get into the KYO, and even though that did not go well, she bounced back nicely at the Spa last month in capturing the Grade 1 Acorn. So much like her other massive win, she is going to change her surface right after. No question that the trainer absolutely loves her versatility.

9- Midnight Rumble (Riggins Racing, ridden by P Husbands)- After running in both the KYO and the Acorn and particularly struggling in the latter, Midnight Rumble is going to make her turf debut. It’s not going to come easy, as the Grade 1 BEL Oaks is a tough way to do that, but at least we know that she plenty of experience running against top opposition. She works very well on the dirt, and we do have one recent turf work to look at it, though it might not tell us much.

10- Beat Down (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by A Cedillo)- Beat Down won on debut and since then has seem nothing but stakes competition, including Grade 1 Natalma and the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf. She has not won any of them and early on this year, she wasn’t showing much of anything. That might be changing recently, has she has hit the board in two of her last three, ending a stretch of six out of the money finishes. Perhaps that could be a little enticing to think she could be about to breakout, but I will be looking elsewhere.

Prediction: 8-3-4-2

— NS

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES