October 14, 2016

Many of the stakes races at Woodbine in Toronto, Canada are named for pillars of the horse racing community there but none is more significant than the Grade I Taylor Stakes, named for arguably the most influential man in Canadian horse racing and the breeder of Northern Dancer, who has a Grade I race named after him as well. It has always been a well-regarded race with winners including champions Northern Queen, Tudor Queen, De La Rose, Hatoof and Canadian Horse Of The Year Arravale while at HRP, the list includes Catachresis, Speed Talker and Flambetta, all horses who earned considerably amounts of money and placings or even victory in the BC F&M Turf. Any of the nine entrants on Sunday afternoon will have a chance of make the road to SA a reality but questions abound with some of the top choices, with distance and recent form a concern for those who will try to handle the 1 ¼ miles on turf the best.

1-Charged Adage (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Australia Wide)

Never off the board in seven starts on the grass, Charged Adage was simply amazing at GP in the Panama City last time out but that was clearly a product of the off-track, if you go back to her blowout win in an allowance at WO in April, and she would be well suited to a soft turf at WO if he occurs. For now, you have to take her for what she is and that is a closer testing these waters for the first time and the fear is that she might bounce off that huge effort, making her an underlay against some very good fillies and mares.

Analysis-Big off-track win might deflate her odds

Fair Odds-8/1

2-Regal Portrait (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Mb Stables)

Regal Portrait is winless in six starts this campaign but has finished no more than two-lengths from the winner in any of those starts and off two closing efforts on less-than-firm turf, will be hoping for a quick grass course that will help with her late kick. Unfortunately, the forecast for the weekend at WO is not so good so she will have to improve at the distance to hit the board and while that is possible, it is unlikely that her first win of the year will come in the toughest Grade I of her career.

Analysis-Jumps in class and needs to show more late to win

Fair Odds-10/1

3-Triptych (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-John Henry)

Triptych is a maiden winner from seven lifetime starts who was a non-threatening fifth in the Lake Placid over a good SAR turf and while she might have shown more in races like the Honeymoon and even the Wonder Where over this same course and distance, she does not appear to have enough to win this event. Speed ratings are lower than most and she seemed to move backwards in that last race; while her marathon events are good, they are a notch below the top in here and she will need more than she has shown as of late.

Analysis-Has yet to handle anything close to this caliber of field

Fair Odds-20/1

4-In Z Balance (Four-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Diablo Diablo)

In Z Balance scratched from the Flower Bowl last weekend to go in this easier event and coming off a win in the Ballston Handicap at SAR, clearly has the best speed ratings and current form to be made one of the top choices. The only question with her will be an off-turf, as expected on Sunday, and if she does not handle it, she might not have enough points to guarantee her spot in the BC F&M Turf, making this a very important race.

Analysis-Needs to handle the surface to ensure her BC start

Fair Odds-4/1

5-Dragonville (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Drabfantasy)

Dragonville started off the year in fine fettle and nearly won both the Grade I Gamely and the Grade I BEL Oaks, making her another with a big shot to win despite the fact that her form has tailed off just a tad in recent starts. Ten races into her campaign means that she might be starting to show signs of fatigue at these long distances and off only two-weeks rest, she will have to be at her very best while saving something for the biggest race of the year at SA.

Analysis-Secured her spot in the F&M Turf early yet still races here

Fair Odds-3/1

6-Smokin Nebulae (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Drabfantasy)

Smokin Nebalue will be hoping to emulate her three-year-old sibling Heart Nebalue, who won the Grade I Spinster last weekend, and secure her BC entry in the Taylor and although she is a stakes winner this year, needs to show that final push to really make a dent in the top three placings. She was excellent in a pair of starts at SAR but failed to fire at BEL after dropping well off the pace last time out and with other closers to her inside, she might have to find room late if she wants to pad her bankroll against this level.

Analysis-Even efforts recently need to be better

Fair Odds-12/1

7-Natural Flower (Six-year-old black mare / Owner-Maxmillion Farm)

Natural Flower has won half of her 20 turf starts and more than $1000.000 on the grass but has never been asked to longer than one-mile on the sod and now, will try to stretch her speed the length of the WO turf, a surface that has been good to her with two wins and a second in the Royal North going short. Her speed ratings are top class but the distance is the huge question and while she does have some sensational workouts, those need to be translated to the main track if she wants to become one of the key horses for the BC.

Analysis-Top class sprinter takes to her form to a much longer distance

Fair Odds-5/1

8-Maistro Power (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Nakamura Stables)

Four wins from six starts this year signal that Maistro Power is ready for the jump to the highest class on the turf and should be well backed if she can run back to her sharp effort in the Glens Falls Handicap at SAR, where she actually went a furlong farther than she has to travel here. Distance should be no problem but the outside post might force her hand earlier than she would like and although she has a familiar jockey in the saddle, he is not one of the more highly regarded and will have to negotiate the WO turf perfectly to win.

Analysis-In excellent form and should love the distance

Fair Odds-7/2

9-Pure Ninja (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Mb Stables)

Lightly raced but already a two-time winner on grass, Pure Ninja gets the outside post for her first foray into Graded Stakes company and could not be more up against it, with distance and class posing major obstacles for this sophomore. Speed ratings have improved in every start and she looks to handle the surface well but this is a huge test and one that frankly, might not be in her scope at this point in her career.

Analysis-Makes a huge leap in class and draws badly

Fair Odds-10/1

Overall

Taking the prospect of rain out of the equation completely, the Grade I Taylor Stakes is a very tough race to gauge and on paper, Dragonville has both the class advantage and a great middle post to make her the tepid favourite in this field. Maistro Power has had an excellent season and should be right there from the outside if she gets into the race early while In Z Balance needs a great showing to make the BC field and will be gunning early in hopes of making things easier down the lane.

Prediction

Win-Dragonville (3/1)

Place-Maistro Power (7/2)

Show-In Z Balance (4/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES