The Dwyer (Grade 3)- $200.000 Purse
AQU- For Three Year Olds
One Mile on the Dirt
July 6, 2024
As a part of the big card on Saturday at AQU, the Grade 3 Dwyer will be running with a field of ten, for a $200.000 purse. That’s the same amount that was offered last year and is similar to what it has been for most of its history. A brief stint at $400.000 and even $500.000 was the exception, and not the norm. There will be ten horses taking part, and while some are well known, there are a few in here that are relative unknowns, especially at this level. In 2023, the Dwyer was won by Neon Town, which was the second of a three-race win streak that he had for Pan Farms. That one is still active, but now runs for John Henry. Here’s a look at our field this year:
1- Backroad Bounty (Aer Stables, ridden by D Davis)- Experienced success in KYD prep races, winning the SUN Derby and running second in the TAM Derby and did make the field initially for the race before ultimately being scratched out of it. Last month, he ran in the BEL at SAR but could only manage a mid-pack finish. He’ll cut back on his distance here, and he did seem to run better earlier when at distances at or near a mile.
2- Maravich (Big Jd Racing, ridden by S X Bridgmohan)- Making his graded debut here after running second in the $125.000 Lee, for NY Breds, last month. His only win in seven starts came when he broke his maiden for an $8.000 purse, but he may be a bit of a late bloomer as he is just hitting his best stride now, it appears. Still, he meets some tough foes here.
3- Red Bull (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by A A Gallardo)- He got his wings last time out when he won the $100.000 King Corrie, a seven-furlong race, up at WO. For Red Bull, it was his third win in six starts. As a matter of fact, up to this point, he either wins or finishes fifth. Can he follow up the King Corrie, here? His SRF for that win was “only” a 93, and while there can be other factors playing into that, it’s going to keep me from picking him.
4- Extreme Flyer (La Canada Racehorses, ridden by J R Velazquez)- Picked up by the trainer for just $15.000 in private sales, and La Canada Racehorses promptly moved him off the grass and onto the main track. That has proven to be a great move, as Extreme Flyer responded well with the surface and added distance, running in a few KYD preps. In them, we’re mainly talking about a horse that’s hitting the board rather than winning but this does seem like a good opportunity to get that graded win.
5- Lasting Impressions (Alydar Stables, ridden by F Pennington)- At the end of March, he finished third in the FL Derby, so it is a surprise that we have only seen him race one time since then. That came in May, where he was moved to the grass for the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge here and place fourth. Now, over three months since the FL Derby, he will race on the dirt for the first time. Had a great work at CD on the 18th of June.
6- Orange Pilled (Big Guns Stables, ridden by F Prat)- The last three times this horse has run on the dirt he has finished ninth in the Remsen, ninth in the Grade 2 Rebel, and thirteenth in the Grade 1 AR Derby. After that last race, he was moved to the turf where the results were better though against lesser competition. Ran third of six three weeks ago at the Bid, for NY-Breds and will hope for a successful return to the dirt. Works say he should be competitive, but he needs to show it on track.
7- Rolling Loud (Mb Stables, ridden by F Geroux)- Mb Stables unleashes this one into stakes competition after the Odysseus colt broke his maiden last month at FL. It came in his fourth start and was an impressive three length win against NY-Breds. After a good work at PRX last week, perhaps this one is on his way to much bigger and better things. He’s unproven but has plenty of promise.
8- Molten (Mb Stables, ridden by P Lopez)- Three months ago, Molten got the win here in the $175.000 Bay Shore, but he has struggled since then. In May, he started from the outside and was a distant eleventh in the Grade 2 Day Mile Stakes. Perhaps that was a little much, and maybe he didn’t like his post. Well, last time out, he started from the rail in the Grade 1 Stephens and struggled yet again.
9- Master And Commander (Fractious, ridden by M Franco)- Ran in multiple KYD preps, and fared well in the spring by running fourth in the LA Derby, the third in the BG Stakes just two weeks later. He was within a length of the winner of each, but it would not be enough to get him into the KYD. That did not keep him out of the PRK two weeks after, and he would come from behind to be fifth in the mud there, but was still beaten by four lengths. This is his first race since then.
10- Power Grid (Fractious, ridden by R L Moore)- Like his stablemate, he ran in several KYD preps and even won the TAM Derby. That would be good enough to get him into the big race, but he was a non-factor in it once there. A month later, he would take part in the Grade 3 Winn at CD, and it seemed like he would at least be more competitive there. Even there, he started at the back, and was simply never able to get involved. It’s hard for me to get excited about him here after those races, and while his works are certainly not poor by any means, others in here are working better.
Prediction: 4-5-9-3
— NS
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
