September 26, 2015

The biggest and arguably the best race of the entire BC Preview Weekend at BEL is the Grade I Hirsch Turf Classic, named for the immortal Joe Hirsch and carrying a huge purse of $600.000 for the one who can travel 1 ½ miles on turf the fastest. Won in real-life by the likes of All Along, John Henry, Manila, Theatrical, Sky Classic, Sulamani, Kitten’s Joy and duel winner English Channel, the HRP version has seen its own share of impressive winners including On A Whim in 2003, who pulled the Turf Classic-BC Turf double. Royal Randwick tried to as well but wound up second-best in 2004, while Tried And True did it in 2005 before Sneaky Plan won by 10-lengths one year later before winning the HOL Turf Cup by 14-lengths as well. The race went through a bit of a lull before Premier Khana pulled a Man O War-Turf Classic-BC Turf treble in 2013 while last year, Spanish Showboat came through with the win as one of his three Grade I scores on the season. But alas, there will be no return winner this year but a full field of 14 will go to the post nonetheless led by only two return winners, and a host of horses who are trying to regain some semblance of form going into the BC Turf.

1-War Scent (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)

War Scent is winless in six tries this season and without a score on turf since the 2014 Nijinsky at WO and while his second in the Sword Dancer was solid, he needs that last little push if he hopes to finally come through and the fear is that he will not have it against this salty group. Turf workouts have prepped him for early speed but need has to have that final push to prove most effective and another inside gate will stall his late run, which is needed since the final run at BEL can be shorter than expected.

Analysis-Has been decent enough but not at this level
Fair Odds-15/1

2-Titan (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

Titan is another in the field who has been only decent this season, with a single win from seven starts and two recent ninth-place finishes, and even with the return to BEL looking like a bonus, he will need to show dramatic improvement to hit the top four. A minor closing effort in the Manhattan led to his best speed rating of the season but he was unable to follow it up at MTH or AP against similar foes and once again, faces 1 ½ miles which has been good for him but only if the pace sets him up.

Analysis-Different running styles could be his best asset

Fair Odds-12/1

3-Pure Violence (Five-year-old grey horse / Owner-Mb Stables)

Pure Violence set an incredible pace in the DMR Handicap and as expected, tired noticeably to finish off the board as the favourite and after failing to win against easier in his last three starts, he jumps up in class and looks vulnerable as an early pace threat. 12-furlongs might be a better distance for him and he might like returning to the East Coast but he looks to be a longshot in this field and one who will be tough to handle in the final furlongs if the pace is solid.

Analysis-Ran away last time and cannot afford to do that here

Fair Odds-25/1

4-Carnage (Six-year-old bay horse / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

Two stables combine for the first six starters in the Hirsch Turf Classic and with Carnage, you get a six-year-old who has won twice in his last 16 starts and has not been able to win a race of any magnitude in 18 months; factors that will increase his odds drastically come Saturday. He nearly won the Nijinsky two back at 44-1 and came from off the pace to finish third at DMR last time so there is some promise there but until he wins a big race, he will not be factored in my top three and would provide a big upset if he won.

Analysis-Has not been very good this year

Fair Odds-20/1

5-Forever Steel (Four-year-old black colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

Forever Steel has burned so much money over his career and that, while he is a solid performer with nearly $2000.000 in the bank, he has never won a stakes race going a route of ground on dirt or turf and that will make him a play but not a win candidate. His last two races on the grass have seen him both close into the pace and miss, or set the early pace and miss, and that lack of consistency makes him one who could win but not at a low price while making only his fourth start on grass.

Analysis-Will finally get his Grade I but not today

Fair Odds-5/1

6-Deja Steel (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

While his full brother is still searching for his elusive Grade I, Deja Steel has his with a win in the BEL going this distance on the dirt and now, will try to duplicate that effort on the grass after tiring only late in the Breeders Stakes at WO last time out. That being said, his speed ratings are nowhere near others in the field, even with that blowout win at LS back in May, so look for him to press early but not have enough in the late stages to overcome what should be a huge closing pace.

Analysis-Grade I winner is not the same on turf

Fair Odds-12/1

7-Danzing By The Bay (Five-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Wolfs Den)

Minor stakes winner Danzing By The Bay was racing for $6.000 starter purses last year and while he has stepped up his game, an even fifth in the Sword Dancer does not improve his chances and he will be hard pressed to hit the board at long odds here. The Jerkens at GP in early January was a good sign of his talent, when he finished fourth with no real excuse, and his speed ratings suggest that this is out of his reach for right now.

Analysis-Longshot chance needs to improve

Fair Odds-30/1

8-El Gran Jet (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Eastern Equine)

Owner Eastern Equine might just have a real star on their hands with El Gran Jet, a three-year-old who has finished first or second in all six starts since being claimed including a pair of Grade III wins at SA and AP. His score in the American Derby was rock solid and he backed that up with a Secretariat Stakes that ranks as one of the best races of the season, so he has to be considered a contender on credentials alone, and a love of the grass that others in the field have lost or simply never had.

Analysis-Very intriguing as a stalk-and-pounce type

Fair Odds-4/1

9-I Am Dionysus (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Nakamura Stables)

Another who has aimed higher with each start but never really hit his best, I Am Dionysus closed for second in the Nijinsky behind a horse who could not win at KD a few weekends ago and at best, he is a high level allowance horse who does not possess the skills to win this race. He might be able to close for a minor award but has never really had that winning drive and unless he handles the 1 ½ miles better than expected, he will be a midpack finisher in this full field.

Analysis-Showed more at WO but not enough to win

Fair Odds-15/1

10-Classical Composer (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Yahudi Stables)

Classical Composer certainly made an impression in a N2X allowance at SAR, winning with authority in a quick final time with a solid SRF mark but with only two career wins and nothing in stakes company, this is a huge leap of faith and one that has to be taken with bounce potential. He has been steadily improving and showed much promise on the grass but this level might be too tough and if you back him for the win and he comes through, it will be at a hefty price.

Analysis-Big win at SAR leads many to dream

Fair Odds-12/1

11-Consus (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Sarah Stables)

Consus has quietly put together a three-race winning streak over the turf, at increasing distances from six- to twelve-furlongs, and now looks to build upon a big win in the Breeders Stakes at WO by taking on older runners for the first time. Speed ratings are below others in the field but his workouts at PRX are blistering and he will be coming from off the pace; a scenario that will suit him well from the outside if he can save any type of ground around the first and second turns at BEL.

Analysis-Interesting three-year-old could make a splash

Fair Odds-8/1

12-Breiterate (Five-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)

Breiterate upset the Grade I Manhattan Handicap as the lowest weight in the field, running down the speed to score by a nose at 14-1, and since then, a pair of even efforts at bigger weight have brought him back to earth and he will be hard pressed to close again with one of the farthest gates. He probably has enough points to get into the BC Turf already and this might just be a starting point to that big event but he still needs to run well to prove his worth and that closing ability will be on trial as he looks to make his impression.

Analysis-Will be hoping to get some pace to chase

Fair Odds-10/1

13-Skipping Stone (Four-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)

Skipping Stone has never been 12-furlongs before and has been a double-digit chance in each of his last four starts, without a victory, so the likelihood of him moving forward enough to secure the win from post 13 is slim. Declining speed ratings, a failure to menace in the latter stages and more than two-months off will make him a distinct longshot with the hope that easier races will allow him to regroup before the season ends.

Analysis-Tough to back off his last few efforts

Fair Odds-25/1

14-Ashkalani (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-Dandy Dan Stables)

Whether it was a product of the course, or conditioning, or who knows what, Ashkalani had the worst effort of his turf career last time out in the Sword Dancer and if you go back to his Man O War win, or BC Turf win, or BEL Derby win, he has all the talent necessary to win this race even with post 14. Workouts at BEL are solid and we know he can get out there and contest the early fractions, which is exactly what he will have to do if he hopes to have any chance of getting back to the form that will take him to KEE.

Analysis-Could win this on class alone

Fair Odds-6/1

Overall

There are many viable options in the Grade I Hirsch Turf Classic and with the top contenders already having their tickets stamped to the BC Turf, it will up to the one who looks to make the biggest impression and that could be El Gran Jet. A perfect middle post position, coupled with stalking ability and a love of the turf, make him the minor favourite over the hard-luck Forever Steel, who still looks for his first Grade I and a win over his full brother, and Ashkalani, looking to regain some lost form before a return to KEE to defend his title.

Prediction

Win-El Gran Jet (4/1)

Place-Forever Steel (5/1)

Show-Ashkalani (6/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES