The Test – Grade I
SAR Race #8 7f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $500.000 For Fillies Three Years Old.
1 Slckmoment Laga Night Rider Stables Saez L
This one has won her three most recent races from an inside draw and lost her last three from a wide draw demonstrating once again just how important a decent draw can be. She certainly seems best when she is on the front or very near it as she has shown in winning the SA Oaks and The Victory Road and finishing second in the grade one Acorn so this draw will be key if she can get out of the gates with her usual gusto. This trip can be a bit of a specialist trip and she certainly looks like it will suit her and she has won all round it without having competed over it. A winning chance.
2 Actualize Fractious Saez G
Bought from Patterson Stables for an expensive looking $250 she would’ve certainly pleased her trainer on her first appearance in the new colors when she won cozily in an optional claimer at WO. Her works are sharp and she clearly has promise or the trainer wouldn’t have paid such a price for her but this is a tough race to start paying that back. She has a great draw though and there is plenty to like about her.
3 Not A Big Deal Mb Stables Jaramillo E
A dual grade one winner at two she is a specialist at this trip and that can count for a lot. She was going along very nicely after her great juvenile season picking up the Beaumont and the Eight Belles through Spring but she has just been a shade disappointing in her last two and that puts up a little red flag. She is certainly capable of winning this but can run the odd clunker and she isn’t one i can have huge confidence in even though she has a great draw and a trainer that is in great form.
4 Top Billing Smokey Stover Davis D
Less than a length to find with Not A Big Deal on their Eight Belles clash and since that race the trainer has been much more positive with the filly which may see that defeat turned around. Everyone will be trying to front run now which may be a problem but this filly has twice shown just how game she is off the front and who is to say she wont be the strongest at the end.
5 Ms Joyce RNP Stables Pennington F
Put in an improved effort when beaten just a head in the Victory Road last time behind the strongly fancied Sickmoment Laga so she must have a show of getting into the finish of this race. She had shown some nice improvement to take three in a row prior to that effort and now the only question is has she improved again.
6 Feral Impact Mb Stables Velazquez J R
This form is a cobweb as form for these races are and this one adds to the complexity with cross over in the SA Oaks and The Acorn. She has a bit to find with 3 of these runners on the Acorn run and whilst that would normally mean a reduced chance it tends to not mean much at all these days. The winner of two of her last three including the Day Mile and the DEL Oaks the only real question mark is how she handles this seven furlongs and where she will run in transit behind some determined front runners.
7 Lucky Insist Rock Creek Alvarado J
Yet to really shine at this level she has run two very nice races over this trip in her last two at overnight level so carries a liking for the trip with her which can be important over seven furlongs. Her biggest problem here may be finding her place in the race, there are some front runners here and some closer’s and with this draw they can get knocked about by both extremes so she will need a bit of luck to find her run.
8 Foregone Conclusion D J C Racing Stables Gaffalione T
The form lines puts her within a length of pretty much everything so like most of the field you cannot say whether she will finish first or last. I think the pace for this race may be very hot as trainers start to get to grips with the new race engine so it all depends as to whether she lets the leaders cut their throats or joins in with them.
9 Great Mojo John Henry Bridgmohan S X
Won three in a row before getting a wide draw in the Victory Road but still managed to finish just a length back at the end which puts her right in the pile of chances for this race. The work times and that good effort certainly tell a tale of a filly on the up but she once again gets a poor draw and she will have to negotiate with the race engine to get a trip. I like her as a possible chance at odds.
10 Lady Sammyantha The Sidley Stud Bejarano R
She has won her last two over this trip and that can be key with seven furlongs but they have both been from decent draws and she gets a nasty on ehere to try and make it three in a row. She has been game in those last two races and laid down a 1.10 and 2 six furlong work last time which is probably the best recent work in the field. A bit of a dark horse here.
11 Notorious Return TwinTowersRacing Gonzalez Ru
This filly had been running consistently in overnights but stepped seamlessly to doing the same thing in graded stakes as she went from third in an allowance to third in the grade one Ashland. Such is the class system at HRP and she has since proved that was no fluke with three more top runs at the highest level. The winner of the Black eyed Susan she was then fourth in the Acorn and fifth in the other Goose so that form puts her very close to winning this race. The draw of course in the big question but this canny trainer often finds a way in these big races.
12 Torrents Of Spring Wood Duck Stables Prat F
Way out in the car park comes a consistent filly who on the face of it looks out of contention but she has a couple of glimmers of hope. A 1.10 and 2 6 furlong dirt work is right up there with the best fillies in the game and she has looked pretty good on occasions most notably when a close fourth in the Muskoka last year and fourth in the Ballade Stakes as a three year old. The form doesn’t look good enough but the work is and with the likelihood of a crazy fast pace the far outside may just provide a clear pathway home.
SUMMARY
A very tight race where every trainer will think they have the winner. I doubt there will be more than four lengths covering them all at the end so it will come down to a few factors. As the top trainers work out the race engine we are seeing far more winners from the lead and there are a couple of fillies here that have improved for that type of run. That could mean we have a fight for the lead and that could set up a strong pace which may bring into the race a few from further back. It will be intriguing for sure and if i had to pick a winner i would be tempted by going outside the box here with the three wide runners maybe sweeping home late for a big priced trifecta.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
