April 27, 2016
Named for a multiple Grade I sprinter and miler in NY up until the age of 9, and one of the most durable horses to ever race at AQU and BEL, the Affirmed Success will be run for the fifth time at HRP on Friday afternoon on the first day of what should prove to be one of the most anticipated BEL Spring Meetings on record. With $100.000 on the line for five talented NY-breds, the six-furlong trip should be no issue for any of the entrants and the question will be one of current form, with only a few coming in off victories and many dropping to face restricted rivals after testing open company.
1-Clear Blue (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-Captinj)
A solid sprinter who won over this course three back and finished a very good second in the Hudson to finish 2015, Clear Blue started off this season with an even third at AQU in preparation for another big NY-bred campaign and while he knows how to handle this company, the horses he is facing are tough open-class sprinters and might be a cut above this lightly raced colt. His speed ratings are solid but have never reached the peak of others in this group and although he is mostly a stalker, the pace might set up for him to lead and that could prove costly if the fractions go too quickly.
Analysis-Inside runner might end up dictating the pace
Fair Odds-6/1
2-Claim Your Prize (Six-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Axeman)
An auto-generated son of two brilliant real-life horses, Claim Your Prize has multiple stakes wins to his credit including a Grade I score back in 2014 and earned five wins last year, almost as many as the rest of the field combined. This year has not been as productive for him with only a second and a third from three starts and while his sixth in the Fool Handicap might have earned him a good speed figure, he was still unable to close when asked and will need more late momentum to upend these classy veterans.
Analysis-Former Grade I winner has had tailing off form
Fair Odds-8/1
3-Privilege (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stable)
Claimed for only $25.000 after a series of good efforts on both turf and dirt, Privilege won first time out for the new barn in the FG slop and now sets his sights on the lucrative NY-bred scene with plenty of experience in this company to fall back on. That being said, this is his first foray into the added-money ranks and his last few sprinting efforts have been over off-tracks so the question is whether the fast dirt will see him at his best and if you think that, you should get a juicy price.
Analysis-Impressive off the claim but this is tougher
Fair Odds-8/1
4-Shoot And Hope (Five-year-old black gelding / Owner-Maxmillion Farm)
Despite only a single win in the last year and off-the-board finishes in his last two events, Shoot And Hope is still one of the top contenders in the Affirmed Success field with almost $500.000 in earnings and speed ratings that are some of the best. Efforts over the grass have been encouraging and that angle is always good to take and if workouts are any indication, this gelding should be close early and rocketing late as he looks to reinvigorate his career on dirt.
Analysis-Looks to build back his dirt credentials
Fair Odds-4/1
5-Angelic General (Six-year-old black gelding / Owner-Gdp Inc)
Angelic General hit the board in a pair of Grade II sprints last season and has come into his own with two straight placings going a route of ground but as with many in this field, there are questions as to his best distance and the cutback to six-furlongs might be too tough on his closing kick. He hit his peak in those sprints last season and has been able to close enough against tougher and with the outside post in a small field, he should have enough to at least warrant the role of favourite in this evenly matched quintet.
Analysis-Outside starter comes in with the best form
Fair Odds-7/2
Overall
Every entrant in the Affirmed Success has questions to answer regarding distance, class or past performances and that leads to a tightly knit field who should all be able to make a run at some stage in this six-furlong jaunt. Angelic General gets the outside gate in a small field and has the best form coming in but has to answer questions on distance that Shoot And Hope does not, although he has to answer questions on the the main track as opposed to the turf. Clear Blue gets the rail and could be the looming speed but has only faced this class once in his career and that could limit his ability to get the best from him if the speed pressed him from the onset.
Prediction
Win-Angelic General (7/2)
Place-Shoot And Hope (4/1)
Show-Clear Blue (6/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
