October 31, 2016
When the Breeders Cup decided to create a counterpart to the Mile, it was hailed as the boon for horses who were not fast enough to handle the six-furlong Sprint but also without the stamina for the ten-furlong Classic, hence the reason for the eight-furlong Dirt Mile. But over the years, it has been diluted into an after-thought for many of the top horses with a $1 million purse less than both the takings for the Sprint and the Classic, leading some to target it for easy money rather than the means to a bigger end. In real-life, it has only attracted a full field twice in its nine editions with Goldencents as its biggest winner while it was thought that Liam’s Map would have been better suited for the Classic last year but avoided a showdown with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah before winning but ultimately losing Older Male Champion honours to Honor Code, who took a chance and finished third in the Classic.
The BC Dirt Mile is a different story at HRP and has been from the very beginning, with some of the best horses entered and winning including numerous champions, starting with Travers and duel Woodford Turf Classic winner Grady in 2007. Madhouse won as the favourite in 2009 and scored the BC Classic the following year and the BC Marathon after that while Whats Up won the Classic in 2009 but moved back to the Dirt Mile in 2010 before returning to double up his Classic win in 2011. Blazing Angel and Blue Chipper were Grade I winning juveniles and came back to win the Dirt Mile back in 2013 and 2014, and Hardline was impressive in winning last year to cap off a good four-year-old season but will not be back to defend his title with an expected start in the Classic instead for his new connections. But not to worry of course, as 14 other entrants more than make up for his absence including six three-year-olds, who have fared well in this event over the years, the reigning Horse Of The Year, the current KYD champion and a bevy of millionaires trying to pad their bankrolls in a big way.
1-Clouseau (Four-year-old gray gelding / Owner-John Henry)
Much of the talk going into the Dirt Mile will be over the fact that owners John Henry and Mb Stables own 6 of the 14 entrants and we start off with one of those in Clouseau, only ranked 24th on the points list and with only a single win from 11 seasonal starts. He was awful in the Ack Ack at CD but did finish second in the Met Mile with a huge 103-speed rating that would easily be enough to win; that being said, he looks to be on the downward spiral and will need a complete reversal to upend some of the best at this distance in the biggest race of the year.
Analysis-Cannot be a factor off his last start
Fair Odds-30/1
2-The Perfect Day (Three-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-John Henry)
SA Derby runner-up The Perfect Day could have used some points from his last start in the PA Derby but finished up the track after using too much energy early and while one-mile might be a better fit for him in the end, he has yet to show a final kick that would put him anywhere close to victory in his first attempt against older rivals. He is a confirmed closer who will benefit greatly from one of the inside spots and while he has prepped in earnest for this start with workouts over the course, there is still not enough to make him a viable candidate for victory.
Analysis-Would have been more fancied if he had been closer at PRX
Fair Odds-20/1
3-Snowmizer (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Snowmizer really has no business being in the Dirt Mile and without a top four placing in five starts since being purchased, will be the longest shot on the board. Ranked 29th on the points list in this category, he is another who gets in because others opt to race elsewhere or not at all and while you have to be in it to win it, he is not good enough for either at this stage in the year.
Analysis-No chance
Fair Odds-100/1
4-Moment Of Madness (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Mb Stables)
Moment Of Madness has quietly had an excellent campaign for owner Mb Stables with three Graded Stakes wins and more than $1000.000 in earnings and coming off a huge win at RP in the mud, could be best suited to sit a nice trip and capitalize on the outside speed. Speed figures are continually improving and he has been good but not great in workouts, leading some to believe that he is coming up to another huge effort and potentially, a shot at year-end honours.
Analysis-Could throw himself into championship contention with a win
Fair Odds-5/1
5-Milestone (Seven-year-old gray horse / Owner-Mcl Stables)
Two huge wins at BEL in the Westchester and the Met Mile has defined the career of Milestone to this point and the real hope is that the return to one-mile over a fast track will signal a return to that form, which has been lacking since he moved to DMR for the Summer. He got back to BEL for the Kelso but caught a good course and could only close for third and as the East Coast is his preferred area, he will have to transfer to SA and hope that he can handle the surface better than many others who have experience at the track.
Analysis-East Coast shipper needs to bring his A-game
Fair Odds-10/1
6-Generals Companion (Four-year-old black colt / Owner-Maxmillion Farm)
The only runner in the 2016 Dirt Mile from the 2015 Dirt Mile is Generals Companion and last year, he was 7th in points and finished 6th in the race after breaking well from the outside but failing to gain over the tiring final quarter-mile. This year, he comes into SA with less form but more early speed and with a middle post, that could prove the difference if he can get out there with a clear lead and hold on for the crucial final furlong.
Analysis-Has shown a new speed dimension that could serve him well
Fair Odds-12/1
7-A One (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Eastern Equine)
Without a doubt, the most intriguing horse in the BC Dirt Mile is A One, the multiple Grade I winner and defending Horse Of The Year who could easily have raced in the Classic but has chosen this spot to continue his career. Off a campaign that includes wins in the CT Classic and Woodward, money earned in all but one of his past 13 starts and workouts that are incredibly fast, the question is going to be one of current form and if that JC Gold Cup took too much out of him, he might not have enough left to tackle the final furlong when the closers are making their move.
Analysis-Not the same as he was at three but still a very talented gelding
Fair Odds-4/1
8-Accidental Notice (Four-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Joseph Racing)
Accidental Notice is only in the Dirt Mile field because he upset the Grade II Obrien at DMR; take away that victory and you have a colt who would not even be on the Top 50 points list for this race and one with only a minor stakes win to his credit. An even eighth in the SA Sprint Championship in preparation, he will try to extend his speed to the longest distance he has run since May but simply put, looks very unlikely to use this as the place for his first Grade I win.
Analysis-Earned his spot at DMR but looks outclassed
Fair Odds-30/1
9-Water Mummy (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-John Henry)
Water Mummy sprung the biggest upset of the year in the KYD but has done almost nothing since then against much easier competition yet still gets into the Dirt Mile after finishing 27th in the points standings and has a chance to earn a second Grade I win. He closed well in the Jones at PRX and earned a good speed rating but could not many any headway in the Phoenix and while he might be a good horse, he will most likely go down in history as the biggest KYD flop as well.
Analysis-Tough to go with, even as a KYD champion
Fair Odds-30/1
10-Impending Decision (Seven-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)
Excellent all season long at seven- and eight-furlong races, Impending Decision faltered in the middle part of his campaign but has come back with a second in the Longacres Mile and a win in the Kelso Handicap and will be a much shorter price than the 35-1 he was last time around. The same lapse in form happened last season and he finished off with a good flourish so expect the same thing here as he looks to become the oldest winner of this race and first over the age of five.
Analysis-Coming back into form and should be sitting just off the pace
Fair Odds-3/1
11-Blue Guy (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Grimley)
Blue Guy won the TAM Derby earlier this year but completely fell apart after that and even with his runner-up finish at long odds in the PA Derby, he will still be one of the longest shot in this field after making it into the field despite a complete lack of points. He has finished close in a number of events all season long but on past performances, he will have to come through with another huge front running effort and hope that, at the shorter distance, he can outlast many of the field to finish in the top half.
Analysis-Came back with a big effort at PRX but that is not enough
Fair Odds-30/1
12-Overspender (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Mb Stables)
Having nearly got up in the Grade I Forego against older runners, Overspender was well backed in the PA Derby but was a complete disaster from start to finish and will now have to regroup against Grade I rivals but ones whom he has faced all season long. His efforts have actually been good enough to get him into the main body of the field but he will have to contend with this stablemate and others and from the outside, he forced to take back and hope that the speed backs up to allow for his solid closing kick.
Analysis-Draws outside and will have to overcome a dismal start last time
Fair Odds-15/1
13-Russian Whisky (Seven-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
Russian Whisky looked to be on his way to a big seven-year-old season after scoring in the San Antonio back in February but he has only been able to come through with a single stakes win since then and actually comes into the Dirt Mile off an optional claiming score, albeit a very good one. He closed well in both that six-furlong event at BEL and the Seagram Cup at WO but gets saddled with an outside gate like he was in the 2014 edition over this same course and will need to get involved early if he hopes to come up with his first Grade I score.
Analysis-Heavy on experience but needs more to overcome this post
Fair Odds-15/1
14-Salt Lake City (Four-year-old black colt / Owner-Boomtown)
Much like most of the Dirt Mile field, Salt Lake City has one big win this year but not much else to fall back on and although his form has been improving, he will have to be at his very best to overcome the very wide post 14. Two huge triple-digit speed ratings show obvious class and talent but has also been off for more than two-months when he could have found another prep race and that lack of recent conditioning could put him up against it in a field that might not be strong on paper but is certainly evenly matched.
Analysis-Grade I winner will drop back and make one final run
Fair Odds-10/1
Overall
Championship implications abound in the Grade I BC Dirt Mile on Friday afternoon at SA but even with $1000.000 on the line, the field features only 6 of the top 20 horses in the points standings, and many from the lower half of the list, and that makes the field very unbalances and hard to predict. In the end, you have to land on Impending Decision as the one with the most consistent season and experience, coupled with solid speed ratings, and hope that the move to SA will be better than it was back in the San Carlos. A One has to be considered a top three lock given his solid career, middle post position and excellent credentials at this specialty one-mile distance while Moment Of Madness is the best of the three-year-olds and will look to build on what has already been a quietly successful campaign thus far.
Prediction
Win-Impending Decision (3/1)
Place-A One (4/1)
Show-Moment Of Madness (5/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: THE BREEDERS CUP
