The AR Derby (Grade 1)- $1,500.000 Purse
OP- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Eighth on the Dirt
March 29, 2025

Time is winding down in the chase to get horses into the KYD. This weekend and next figure to be the last chances for a horse to get the necessary points, although there will be “Hail Mary’s” in the Lexington. 100-point races began last week, and after seeing Gold State and Ello Santa secure massive wins, OP and GP will be the focus this weekend. Here, we will look at the AR Derby from OP, which offers a $1,500.000 purse to be split amongst the top finishers. Getting the top prize of that offering frequently has been Mb Stables, as the trainer has won the AR Derby four times over the last four years, but did not win in 2022. How? Because he had two (Jacks Courage and Wahpekute Sioux) dead heat in 2023. Last year, he led Poison Arrow to the win, a horse that went on to finish second in the KYD and third in the BEL. This year, he brings Extreme Jet to the mix, a horse that I feel is every bit as good as Daemon. Of course, there’s plenty of other talent here, so let’s take a run through this field of twelve:

1- Banned (Mb Stables, ridden by F Prat)- At the start of the month, Banned was down at TAM and got the win in the TAM Derby, and with those points, he presently sits seventh on the KYD leaderboard. Normally, that is good at this point, but he is not in the top three of horses owned by the trainer following his two big wins last week. Overall, Banned is four out of nine, and had struggled in his three prior races before the TAM Derby. Therefore, if Banned wants to run in the KYD next week, he has to prove himself to his trainer that he deserves to be one of his three.

2- Edged Out (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by M E Smith)- We’ll always see horses like him in this race because there is simply no more time to try something “smaller”. Edged Out broke his maiden at SA in January, and a month later, he would be promoted directly to the Grade 2 Rebel right there. His run there was interesting, because you could just dismiss him over the ninth-place finish, but he was coming on at the end. Gets a tad more distance here and now has stake experience. Wish he would have worked better at AQU earlier in the month, though.

3- Whatever Will Be (Asgar, ridden by R L Moore)- Started his career out effectively down in NM against State Breds, and won the $150.000 Mountain top Futurity. Since then, it’s been all stakes, and other than running third in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes at WO in November, he has not earned a penny. But he did run third there, and it’s KYD time, so now Whatever Will Be gets that final chance. I’m not seeing much to be excited about here, but whatever will be, will be.

4- Boss Spearman (Wood Duck Stables, ridden by P Lopez)- After winning an optional claimer at SA, Boss Spearman was the subject of a private sale just a couple of days later, arriving at Wood Duck Stables for $150.000. The aspirations of the trainer were high right away, by entering him in the Grade 3 Withers at AQU, and Boss Spearman got the job done from the outside with a late run to get the win. That gives him 30 points, which is good enough for 20th right now, so more will be needed. He’s the trainer’s top option right now, and definitely one to be looking back for in the stretch.

5- Real Creepy (Red Fox Farms, ridden by B Curtis)- Another example of taking a shot in a race like this because there is no time left. Real Creepy, however, has not done much of a note to this point, with a maiden claiming win at SA being his claim to fame right now. After that win, he ran against State Breds, also at SA, and had a middle of the pack finish. The trainer does have Tropical Surge as his primary KYD threat but still wants to test Real Creepy here. I would’ve wanted to see better in that SA allowance to consider him here.

6- Extreme Jet (Mb Stables, ridden by M Franco)- I’m a big fan of Extreme Jet, and have been since covering his four-length romp in the Grade 2 Remsen at the start of the year. In his two races that followed, he was third here in the Southwest before rebounding nicely down at GP, winning the Fountain Of Youth Stakes. He comes here more as a tune up for the KYD next month, where he should be seen as one of the top contenders to win that race. Daemon will get the most hype, and rightfully so, but I do believe Extreme Jet can have something for him. For now, the gelding has something to prove at OP after the Southwest and should be the favorite here.

7- Without Warning (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by F Geroux)- A strong two-year-old campaign saw three wins in six starts, as well as a near miss runner up in one of my favorite races, the Grade 1 Hopeful at SAR. Finished in the middle of the pack in the BC Juvenile but has been mostly absent in prep races this year. His only start of 2025 came last month in the Grade 2 Risen Star at FG, where all was well, earning a 102 SRF in his victory. The rest did him good, and those 50 points are more than likely enough to get into the big race, but a little more is always good.

8- Black Swan Event (Team 7 Illusions, ridden by J C Ferrer)- Broke his maiden in his third career start in February, and just a few weeks later he found his way here for the Grade 2 Rebel. After being at the back early, Black Swan Event made his way through the field a bit to end up finishing sixth and actually has a very similar story to Edged Out leading into the race and the way that they ran it. I’m not certain that he’ll utilize the same tactical approach to this race, however.

9- Decal (Williams9, ridden by A A Gallardo)-After a strong two-year-old campaign, Decal has found a home here at OP for prep race season this year. Right now, it has not been kind, nor bad, to him, as Decal was fourth in the Southwest, only missing by a length, and then was actually closer to the winner at the end, despite his fifth-place effort, in the Rebel. It seems like he should have more than the 24 points that he has, on effort alone, but he needs to do better here. Should get a piece here, but will it be enough of one?

10- Gogh Cab Gogh (Alydar Stables, ridden by D E Centeno)- Daemon’s not running here (he’s down in FL), but the trainer has plenty of interest as he enters Gogh Cab Gogh, after an eye-opening work last Friday. Overall, he is two for three, breaking his maiden at TUP before going on to beat State Breds in an allowance at SA. Good results, but that’s not why he is here, it’s the way that he has been working. Alydar has only Daemon in the top 20 right now, and Point Given on the cusp. If Gogh Cab Gogh races like he works, he may make a sudden appearance in that top 20.

11- Alydar (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by J R Velazquez)- Interestingly, we go from Alydar Stables to Alydar himself, and this W W Durant colt has also been a regular here at OP. For a while, he was running on the grass and fared well there before moving to the dirt and winning the $500.000 Great White Way at AQU. He’s been here ever since and has gotten the job done in terms of running well, placing second in both the Southwest and the Rebel. Those 35 points have him 15th on the leaderboard, so in the danger zone with multiple big races left. He likes it here, and figures to contend again.

12- Fawkes (Delta Farms, ridden by F Pennington)- It’s hard to pick a maiden in a race like this, but Fawkes did fare well in his last outing, when he was in a second-place dead heat with Alydar in the Rebel. Then, there’s the blistering work that he had at PRX which absolutely proves that he is a KYD-quality horse. I fully understand why he is here, as after all, there is no time to play around with maidens right now with a horse like this, especially after showing what he could do in the Rebel. Still, see that horse wearing #6? He should at least, keep Fawkes a maiden. Fawkes has 25 points and is 23rd overall. May add to that somewhat.

Prediction: 6-7-9-10

— NS

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES