Santa Maria Stakes (Grade 2)- $200.000 Purse
SA- For Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt
February 11, 2017

It will be a smaller field this year for the 12th running of the Santa Maria Stakes, a Grade 2 event at SA for older females.  Five go to the gate, but at least that’s one more then we had last year for the race.  The storyline for this race could have been Mb Stables going for the threepeat, since he saddled Little Jen in 2015 and Brawl Dead End last year, but he’ll give someone else a chance to win the race this time.  We are going to have to take into account the possibility of an off-track for this race.  Right now, the not always accurate HRP weatherman tells us there is an 80% chance of showers. Let’s look at the runners!

#1- Eviction (Nakamura Stables, ridden by N Arroyo Jr)- You can’t go wrong putting this horse across the board.  In 19 starts, she has an impressive record of being 8-8-2 overall, meaning she has hit the board all but once in her career.  That number draws my attention, until I look at the field sizes she has run in.  Still though, being first or second in your last fourteen races is something she can boast.   It’s predominantly open allowances as a part of that streak, but she did win the Grade 3 Turn Back The Alarm in October of 2015 at BEL.   This is the toughest field that she has run against, but you can’t deny that she knows how to win.  This race presents a great test for her, and I am interested to see how she handles it. Won one of her two off track starts.

#2- Shake It Off (Our Athletes, ridden by C S Nakatani)- A successful three year old season saw this filly score a couple of prestigious wins. After running third in the KYO, she was determined to do even more then that and had herself a great summer, starting with a win in the Grade 1 Mother Goose against the greats of her division.   Even more impressively, in my opinion, she went to beautiful Saratoga Race Course and won the Grade 1 Personal Ensign, taking down the older females she was facing for the first time.  Ran third in September in the BC Distaff Preview, also known as the Grade 1 Cotillion at PRX.   The Distaff didn’t go her away and old trainer Australia Wide shook her out of his stable.  For $350.000, Our Athletes made the move to pick her up and she ran very well in the Grade 1 La Brea.  She’s the class of the field, and if she runs her race, she’ll win.  However note, that she has never raced an off-track.

#3- El Gran Regret (Night Mare Racing, T C Baze)- The struggling T C Baze, a winner of just 3-for-34 so far in 2017 will hope to get a jolt in their season with this El Gran Broomstick filly.  Her three year old season was one of success, winning three out of seven with two other runner up finishes.  However, while Shake It Off was running in Grade 1’s, El Gran Regret was mainly running in ungraded stakes until very recently.  She won the 2016 edition of the Turn Back The Alarm at BEL, so along with Eviction will see the last two winners of that race.  Three weeks ago, she raced here in the slop and was over two seconds behind the winning Lea in the Santa Monica.  She started well in that race, but thought it was over before the stretch run.  We’ll likely see a tactical change, because if she just didn’t like the slop, well, she may see more.

#4- Minda (John Henry, ridden by V Espinoza)- The glory days for this filly were primarily as a two year old when Royalty Racing had her running on the LA-bred circuit.   She won five out of eight that season, including three LA-bred stakes, then won another such stake early in her three year old campaign.   Her tenure with Royalty ended with her winning the Grade 1 SA Oaks, and she has never won again.  Royalty sold her to Pan Farms after that race for $400.000, and that trainer only raced her one time, that being the KYO.  In that race, she was a non-factor, and it was off to John Henry for $350.000.   The new trainer could not turn her around immediately, and it would be fair to begin to wonder if she was still able to compete at the highest of levels.  Then, in the Grade 1 Zenyatta, she impressed with a second place finish, and comes into this race now with back to back runner up performances. On a day with a lot of LA-bred races going on at DED, she’s going to need to show she belongs in races like this, and not in races like them. Two for two on off tracks.

#5- Three Little Birds (Threshold, ridden by L Contreras)- The six year old mare will run for the 24th time and will look to pick up her second graded win as she kicks off 2017.  Last year saw her win two of the seven races she competed in, though was able to hit the board in five of them.  The trainer has opted to move her to the main track, having only raced once on dirt since late 2014, so we’ll see how it goes.  Recent works have also been on the grass, so I can’t really judge how I think she’ll run.  However, Three Little Birds might not only be dealing with a surface change, she may be dealing with slop as well.  While you don’t typically think birds would like the rain, this mare will love it.

Prediction (dry track): 2-4-5-3
Prediction (off track): 5-4-2-1

— NS

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES