August 19, 2016

The Grade III MTH Oaks offers a $100.000 purse and a chance for some black-type status for one of the seven entrants, but it falls in an odd space on the calendar, and that is why it has not attracted the best of the division to this point. Previous winners including the likes of triple Grade I winner Roundheel and last year’s KY Oaks winner Broomsticks N Booty, but this year we only have a single Graded Stakes winner in the bunch, and it might be left up to some of the inside fillies which have raced well, but have yet to really breakthrough at this level.

1-Effortless Admiral (Three-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Ekli Stable)

Effortless Admiral has taken on some very good fillies this season and has come away with a single win and four runner-up finishes, and if she runs back to those efforts, this could be the day for her to take down all the marbles. She was closer to the fractions last time at AP, but should be able to sit a little farther back this time, and if the pace is hot, she will be finding a lane late with a big charge all but assured.

Analysis-Knocking at the door and could finally get there

Fair Odds-3/1

2-Looknlisten (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

Looknlisten made people listen with huge runs in both the Glorious Song last year and the Silverbulletday this year, but has been lackluster in four starts since then and will be relegated to longshot status Saturday unless she finds something brand new. She showed no closing ability at FG, WO or SA when left in the dust early, and while her workouts are okay, she needs to show much more if she wants to contend for a top spot here.

Analysis-Has lacked any closing ability as of late

Fair Odds-20/1

3-Seventh League (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-John Henry)

Claimed, then purchased in quick succession, Seventh League was unable to make any gains in the IND Oaks, and while she might be good enough at this distance, the class will be the stumbling block, and she will have to move forward to hit the board. Without a workout since early July, she does have an imposing five-for-six record before being moved to the new barn, and with an affinity for winning, she could be the type to get back on track with more time in her new surrounding.

Analysis-Might find the class a little too daunting

Fair Odds-12/1

4-True To Form (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Mb Stables)

True To Form is a multiple stakes winning filly who has made an excellent account of herself in three recent Graded Stakes attempts and like the rail starter, has every opportunity to finally take down one of these high profile races. Her running style is very much geared towards speed, and she will be setting the early fractions; a tactic that is usually quite good at MTH, and in this case, excellent without much zip to go with her around the first bend.

Analysis-Will be leading and taking them as far as she can

Fair Odds-7/2

5-Neonatalist (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Angelos Stable)

Claimed for $50.000 by top owner Angelos Stable, Neonatalist has been a dominant winner in three straight starts going long, but has been facing much easier company and will be hard pressed to match strides with these seasoned stakes performers down the lane. Her last speed rating was a breakthrough and good enough to go with these types, but putting that kind of effort back to back will be the challenge as she looks to build on what is already a solid career.

Analysis-Nice filly but takes a big step up in class

Fair Odds-8/1

6-Golden Horn (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Nakamura Stables)

First or second in all five starts for her current owners, Golden Horn is another with huge talent, but one who is untested at this level, and those kinds of prospects are always difficult to judge when you line them up against proven stakes competition. Unlike others who have raced and won against lesser, her speed ratings are not close to the best in this field, and on paper, she looks to be the slowest, and that will increase her odds, especially since she also lacks the two-turn experience of others in the field.

Analysis-Knows how to win but faces her toughest test to date

Fair Odds-25/1

7-Aldonza (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-John Henry)

Aldonza is the only Graded Stakes winner in the MTH Oaks field with her score three races ago in the Selene at WO, but after finishing behind a few of these in the Summertime Oaks at SA, then only closing into third at IND, she will have to show more from off-the-pace with her outside draw here. Better than her stablemate when they raced together for the first time in the new barn, she will also be the more fancied of the two entrants on this occasion, but she still needs to show that she can close for a big share, and unless the fractions are quick, that might be tough.

Analysis-Good at IND but needs to show more in this spot

Fair Odds-5/1

Overall

A pair of very good fillies looking for their first Graded Stakes scores will do battle in the MTH Oaks on Saturday, but the inside run of Effortless Admiral might prove the difference, if she gets any kind of pace from the outside. True To Form is a proven stakes winner which has been knocking at the door over this kind of field and warrants a huge look for a top barn while Aldonza is already a Grade III winner, but moved barns last time out and might be trying to find her form again from the farthest stall.

Prediction

Win-Effortless Admiral (3/1)

Place-True To Form (7/2)

Show-Aldonza (5/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES