06/08 The BEL – Grade I
BEL Race #11 1 1/2m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $1,500.000 For Three Year Olds.

The final leg of the Triple Crown once again wont witness a TC winner or even a TC contender after 15 years of trying. This race tends to go with those more gritty staying types so lets look back in the history books to see if there is anything there that will help us find the 2019 winner.
In the past 15 years NO Preakness winner has won the Belmont and in the past five seasons, four winners of the Belmont didn’t even compete in the Preakness.
As for conformation numbers they stake up like this:
Lumbosacral: 67% were Very Good compared to just 20% being Ideal
Stifles: Either Mid or Mid Low, each being about 50%
Triangle: Balanced accounting for 47%, Hip to Stifle Longest 27%
Back Leg: Ideal making up 40%, With Average and Very Good at 20% each
Front Leg: 48% being Good, 20% Very Good, and just 13% ideal
Forehand: 54% being Light Average, 40 % Average, and of the last seven winners of the Belmont, they were all Light Average Forehand. (many thanks to Duffer for this information).
Now we all know how important the draw is at HRP well a look at where the winners came from in the last 12 years really does tell the history of the race engine as much as the history of the race. In the last six years no horse drawn outside gate 6 has won and yet in the six years before that only 1 of the 6 was drawn inside 8 with 4 of the winners coming wider than 10. So i guess without any significant changes to the race engine we can expect the winner to come from a gate of 6 or less. Rain of course can change all that, who can forget that very average race horse Wounded in Action storming home from the car park in the mud in 2012 and never winning another race.
In the past five years Mb Stables has made this race his own with three wins in the last 4 years with no other trainer even getting a second winner, so on paper without even looking at another horse an Mb Stables runner drawn 1 to 6 seems to be a very good bet.

Well on to the race itself and whilst it may not carry the excitement of having a Triple Crown attempt we are still looking at a huge purse and a very exciting contest.

1 Demon Team 7 Illusions Lezcano J
2019 form – 01240
There is plenty to like about this one and even with another tough draw i think he may turn out to run a great race at decent odds. Drawn wide in both the KYD and the Preakness he ran on well to be fourth in the Derby and then again in The Preakness to be fairly close up in ninth. I really liked those two efforts and they came off the back of a close second in the Wood Memorial. The draw will make it tough again especially if he gets shuffled back and its rare for a horse to run in both the TC races and then come into the BEL fresh enough to win but i really do have an itch with this one and it wont go away.

2 Hollywood Latte Nakamura Stables Talamo J
2019 form – 0101
Turned around a very average effort in the KYD with a brilliant game win in the Preakness and in contrast to Demon this one always seems to get a decent draw a fact that is repeated today. Talamo takes the reins again today which is a great plus and when you look at his fast ground form he really in the one to beat in this race if it stays dry. The question remains about running three grade ones in just over a month but with only four starts this year he may be OK and certainly his works havent suffered.

3 Fear The Dragon Mb Stables Beschizza A
2019 form – 1100
Catches the MB/draw ace card and falls into that winning category that has been prevalent in the last 4 years. After dead heating with Beach Dandy in the RP Springboard Mile when making all the running he became a leading KYD contender when taking the Lewis Stakes and The Rebel leading up to the Derby. His chances in the first two TC races were made harder by two double figure draws and whilst he ran terribly in the mud of the KYD he was back to his best when storming home in the Preakness to be just a length behind the winner at the end. The draw today is perfect for his on pace running style and i think we will see the real Fear The Dragon today.

4 Bo Knows Joshua Stables Bridgmohan S X
2019 form – 000
A really good two year old this one has had a poor start to his three year old campaign but is certainly much better than his form figures suggest. An eye catching run in The Lecompt was then followed by a poor effort in the Southwest and then again in the Preakness last time and you have to question whether he is turning into one of those brilliant juveniles that just doesnt train on. If he bounces back to his grade one winning two year old form he will do well from this nice draw and it would certainly be a story if the owner sells Beach Dandy for $1200 and then buys a horse for $150 to win the BEL.

5 Ranger Aer Stables Esquivel E
2019 form – 112000
He has had a busy year so far and looking at his last start he may need a break. A great start to the season saw him win two including a determined win in the Davis Stakes and then he qualified for the KYD with a solid second in the TAM Derby and then a decent run from a poor draw in the Wood Memorial. His effort in the KYD from a nightmarish draw wasnt bad at all finishing fifth in the end but he looked a tired horse in the Preakness last time from a much nicer gate. Everything including his works say its time for a rest but these horses only get one chance at the TC races and you cant blame his trainer for throwing him in here.

6 Admiration Mb Stables Velazquez J R
2019 form – 20112
Like his stable mate he has a lot of plus’s before we even talk about how good he is. A progressive two year old he really burst onto the TC scene with wins in both the TAM Derby and the SA Derby the second of those overcoming a terrible draw. Mb Stables decided to bypass the KYD and it very nearly paid off when he ran up the rail and very nearly took the Preakness ending up just a head behind Hollywood Latte. He may well have got up had that race been over this trip so it really looks good for this son of Aggravation and i would suspect he will start favourite for this.

7 Beach Dandy John Henry Bejarano R

2019 form – 1110
There arent many BC Juvenile winners that make it to the KYD but this one looked better and better leading up to the Derby easily winning both the Risen Star and the SUN Derby. Racing from gate 19 he overcame all sorts of adversity to triumph in the KYD by a length and at that point looked like being the first ever winner of the KYD triple crown. The Preakness came and he was a short priced favourite but after getting blocked a few times he ended up fifth but beaten less than a length. Some felt he looked a tired horse that day but i felt he was held up at a few crucial moments and actually thought he ran as well as he could given the circumstances. The very next day Joshua Stables sold this great horse to John Henry for $1.2K and many thought he would be turned out for a break to come back in a month or so. So it may surprise a few to see him here but his trainer must feel as i do that his Preakness run was better than it looked on paper. If he is anywhere near his best and gets a clear run he will win his second TC race today and i am sure his trainer will be biting their nails as the horses go in the gate.

8 Brady Is A Lady Sharis Stables Saez L
2019 form – 24441
This is the first of the runners that has missed the gut busting TC races and comes here ticking a few boxes and a real danger to the more established stars of the generation. He ran fourth in his first three races on the TC trail running on from the back in all of them and culminating with a very good fourth in the Wood Memorial. Those efforts put him very close to the TC qualifiers and when the others were fighting out a KYD this one was quietly taking the Peter Pan by a fairly comfortable length. That last win saw him much closer in the early stages and i must admit if he can get midpack or better today he could take some big scalps and shock a few of the big names.

9 Chai Bay Serenity Stables Ortiz I Jr
2019 form – 1104
An eight race maiden coming into his three year old campaign he soon changed all that witha maiden win and then a very good win in the Withers. His next two starts were both very good but not good enough to get him into the KYD beaten a length into sixth and fourth in both the Fountain Of Youth and the FL Derby. Like Brady Is A Lady he is very close to the horses that did run in the first two TC races without the hardships of competing in them so as a fresh horse must have a very good chance of upsetting some applecarts. The trip will certainly suit and the draw whilst a little wide than his trainer would have liked is just about OK if he clears some of the ones inside him.

10 Apples To Oranges Mb Stables Gaffalione T

2019 form – 2013
Only moderate as a two year old he quickly put himself in the picture at three finishing a nose second in the Holy Bull and then winning the Wood Memorial. Drawn one in the KYD he went to the back of the field and ran on late to be a very creditable third from a draw that has proved hard to run well from in a big field. Missing the Preakness will be a big plus to his chances in this and he certainly looks like he will eat up this trip. The draw is tricky but far from impossible and he completes a very strong hand for Mb Stables who loves to win this race.

11 Lionking Invader Estero Farms Pennington F
2019 form -1020
Won the Swale over seven furlongs on seasonal debut but proved he wasnt just a sprinter in the BG Stakes with a strong finishing second just a nose off the win. He was very poor in the KYD but had previously not handled an off track so that can be excused and would, like pretty much every horse be within a couple of lengths of the best in this field. I think this draw and trip may prove too much for the son of Greek God but he is certainly not write off material.

12 Red Cup Our Athletes Geroux F
2019 form – 2200
A close third in the BC Juvenile last year things were going well in his three year old campaign as he ran well to be second in both the Lewis Stakes and the San Felipe Stakes but then the draw monster struck and he came off the rails in his last two starts. A pretty non de script effort from wide in the SA Derby was followed by a very poor effort in the KYD again from wide and he has quite the mountain to climb to get back to his brilliant two year old form. He comes here fresh after missing the Preakness but again gets no favors from the draw monster and may struggle again.

13 Liberty Valance D J C Racing Stables Gallardo A A
2019 form – 1140
Only broke maidens at the end of January but then went straight into graded stakes company to win the Southwest with a strong finish from a nasty draw. He followed that up with two more good efforts firstly in the Rebel when fourth and then in the AR Derby when sixth beaten just a couple of lengths but really has had the worse luck with draws and once again gets harsh treatment. There really does seem to be a few horses at HRP that continually get bad draws like this but he is good enough to overcome it as he did in the Southwest if he can just stay close enough through the first part of the race. I actually like him a lot and he may turn out to be the dark horse.

14 Scarlet Ninja Joshua Stables Castellano J J

2019 form – 3002
Hasnt really run a bad race in a good career to date but has struggled at this level in the past and gets no favors in this race to change that fact. He started off well enough finishing a promising third in the Lecompt but then failed from a wide gate in the Gotham and then again from an inside gate in the BG Stakes. He was a good second in the mud in the Day Mile Stakes and if it rains and he gets a clear late run the best he may finish is late for a place.

15 Mr Cat Summers First Street Stables Husbands P

2019 form – 304103
He has had no favors from the draw monster through his TC campaign but has run well enough to suggest he may run big again today if he has stayed fresh enough. The last time he got a fair draw was in the AR Derby and he won that very nicely so i have a feeling this is a much better horse than his bare form figures suggest. Put up on the speed in the KYD he was in the fight for a long way before fading into ninth in the mud. Again drawn wide in the Preakness he ran a very similar race but with a drier track was able to stick around and was a very brave third only beaten a neck. He will again have to use some energy early to get a position in this race but if he can save a bit for the stretch he would be a very deserving winner.

16 Weak Sheik John Henry Van Dyke D

2019 form – 040
Drawn widest and with Beach Dandy as a stable companion i know most of us would assume that he will be ‘sent’ to make the gallop strong enough for Beach Dandy to clear some pockets. Look he is a decent sort and proved when third in the Pharaoh last year that he can live in this grade but i really think the only option open to him will be as a front runner.

SUMMARY
What a race this is !!
We have both the KYD and Preakness winners plus some fresher horses who to be honest look just as good as those that have already achieved so much. Add to them Admiration, Apples To Oranges and Mr Cat Summers and we have every ingredient to sort out the number one three year old of the year so far.
Of the fresher horses i feel Chai Bay and Brady Is A lady have drawn best and may be the strongest and of the proven TC horses Admiration and Beach Dandy have drawn well enough to step up.
Looking outside the box a little i think Fear The Dragon and Demon may run big.
A lot will depend on whether John Henry sends a rabbit, i must admit if i were them i probably would because this field has about two lengths covering the first ten if the pace is average and even and then anything could win.

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES