October 5, 2016

Ever since the Grade III Hill Prince was moved from its Summer placement in the schedule to the Fall Meeting, it has become a key race for three-year-olds looking to get into the BC Mile or even the BC Turf and on Saturday, will be run with a field of six for a huge $500.000 purse. Spotted Cat won last year and backed that effort up with a win in the HOL Derby and a pair of recent placings in the Read Stakes and the Sword Dancer at SAR so the precedent is there for a good colt to win this race and although none of the entrants this year have taken a Grade I victory yet, there are plenty who could step up and score a top-class win at some point down the line.

1-Fluctuation (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

Out of a one of the best sires in the game right now and from a Grade I winning mare who earned nearly $1000.000, Fluctuation was well regarded from the very start of his career and comes into the Hill Prince off five wins in his last six starts including scores in the National Museum of Racing and Saranac over the firm SAR turf. After losing the lead briefly last time, he re-rallied to best a fellow three-year-old who won the Hirsch Turf Classic this past weekend in a dead-heat so the talent and class is certainly there with the inside stall only adding to his likelihood of winning.

Analysis-Amazing form and the inside gate make him the choice

Fair Odds-2/1

2-Lure (Three-year-old gray colt / Owner-Our Athletes)

Stakes winning juvenile Lure was second in the Grade III PEN Mile against very good field and since being purchased, has won and finished second in a pair of tough stakes events at DMR as the favourite. He will probably not be favoured in this spot against some classy sophomores but his speed ratings make him dangerous and he could be sitting a nice outside trip over a turf course that was not kind to him in July but will be much more suitable at this distance.

Analysis-Ships back to BEL off a pair of sharp efforts out West

Fair Odds-3/1

3-Raj Action Packed (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)

Raj Action Packed has had a very good season with only one off-the-board finish and after closing into third in the Saranac, he should be well backed to find his best footing once again and possibly, with a quicker pace up front. The fear is that he simply might not be fast enough to win this race, with speed ratings that are lower than many, and unless he gets into the race sooner, he might be behind the leaders at a crucial moment with a new jockey who might not be able to handle things as adeptly on him.

Analysis-A new rider means a new tactic from off the pace

Fair Odds-8/1

4-Pinstripes Proud (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Aer Stables)

Pinstripes Proud held well for fourth in both the BEL Derby and the Secretariat Stakes going a furlong farther than this event but even with excellent speed ratings, his ability to close into the quick fractions at this level will be tested and he might only be a minor player, as opposed to a viable win threat. It looks like he has been moved around from track to track in search of the right spot and finally lands here after nearly two-months so the question might be what the end game is and if it is a spot in the BC, he will have to win to get in.

Analysis-Cuts back in distance but might not have found the right spot

Fair Odds-6/1

5-Pervoked (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Blushing Meadows)

Pervoked was thrown to the wolves in the Grade I Secretariat after a maiden win and a minor allowance score at WO and although he certainly not disgraced, he has not proven himself at this level yet and will be one of the longer shots against stakes-caliber rivals. He took on older runners at KD and moved towards the lead before getting outfinished and since that distance might have been too long, the cutback to nine-furlongs should be perfect for this lightly raced sophomore.

Analysis-Another who cuts back in distance in hopes of getting a better run
Fair Odds-10/1

6-What A Guarantee (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Australia Wide)

Owner Australia Wide looks to have gotten a bargain for Grade I-placed What A Guarantee but his last three starts have not been good and the hope is that the move to the grass for the first time will spark something. Dirt to turf with this owner has been a goldmine with runners clicking at more than 50% in the win column and if a recent workout at BEL is any indication, he might be a huge longshot or a rousing favourite, given your affinity as a handicapper for the things this owner has done with talented racehorses in the past.

Analysis-Love him or hate him, the move to turf will help him

Fair Odds-4/1

Overall

Despite having only a six horse field, the Grade III Hill Prince looks like a battle royale in the three-year-old turf division and while Fluctuation and Lure will be the deserving favourites, there is a new shooter who could be something special if he handles the turf. The former is a huge threat off two big stakes wins at SAR while the latter was second in the DMR Derby and ships back for another try at BEL but What A Guarantee could be the huge upset chance off an ownership change and if he can rocket home against a quick pace, he could be picking up all the pieces late.

Prediction

Win-Fluctuation (2/1)

Place-Lure (3/1)

Show-What A Guarantee (4/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES