SA Derby (Grade 1) (KYD)- $750.000 Purse
SA- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Eighth on the Dirt
April 6, 2024

Out west, all eyes will be on the SA Derby, as fourteen horses will try to get the 100 available points that are available for the winner to find their way into the KYD while picking up a nice purse along the way. In the Wood Memorial, we saw some horses that were joining the KYD trail for the first time that looked like they could really shake up the TC leaderboard. That’s not the case here in the SA Derby, as just about all of these horses have been regular entries in preps over the last couple months. That does not mean they have been full of successes in them, however. In 2023, Mb Stables won this race with Prevent, and the horse would finish eighth in the KYD. Wood Memorial winners have not fared that well in the KYD, so have SA Derby winners been any better, let’s take a look:

2004- Fuji Ninja (1st)
And just like that, we have a better track record here than the Wood Memorial! But, let’s keep the list going!
2005- Cochise (8th)
2006- Pride Rock (12th)
2007- Chien Ming Wang (10th)
2008- Jack The Dancer (6th)
2009- Rebellion (11th)
2010- Prophet (10th)
2011- Out Of The Park (15th)
2012- Righteous (12th)
2013- Neidermyer (18th)
2014- General Chimaera (19th)
2015- Generals Companion (2nd)
2016- Dial It In (Did Not Run)
2017- Positive Thinking (16th)
2018- Pretty Ferro (1st)
2019- Admiration (Did Not Run, did place 2nd in PRK and won BEL)
2020- Orion Nebula (14th)
2021- Cheesy (2nd)
2022- Pluckzy (12th)
2023- Prevent (8th)

With two winners and two runner ups, the track record is definitely better than the Wood Memorial, who’s best finisher, among its winners, is 3rd. Here’s a look at those looking to be the next name added to the list:

1- Maple Mafia (Mb Stables, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- After being gelded, Maple Mafia fittingly went north of the border to win the $250.000 Coronation Futurity at WO in November. Although he looked good here, he has not made any sort of impact in any of the three KYD preps that he has run in, including the TAM Derby last time out when he was a lackluster 7th. He’s in the right barn to turn it on, but also in the right barn to keep getting chances.

2- Ocean Storm (Greyfriars Stable, ridden by Jam Rodriguez)- We have seen many examples of Riggins Racing acquiring horses recently, so it raises my eyebrows on this one to see him unload him in late February. Ocean Storm did run in the BC Juvenile, but was not a factor there, and that trend continued in each race afterwards. After running fourth in the Davis Stakes, the $250.000 sale took place, and Greyfriars picked him up. Placed ninth in the TAM Derby with a flat effort last month. Needs to show something here, even if it not a win.

3- Fire Chase (Fractious, ridden by A Beschizza)- In the Wood Memorial preview, I talked about the question of wondering who will be the horse to emerge as the third entry for Fractious in the KYD. While he does have a couple of appealing “newcomers” this weekend, I like Fire Chase to be that horse. Starting in September, the gelding rolled off a four-race win streak that included the Smarty Jones at OP. Off of that, he ran in the Fountain Of Youth and was solid, but fifth by a length doesn’t case a check. He has fifteen points already, so that will help his cause. I expect him to add to that here.

4- Im Sorry So Sorry (Martyparty, ridden by Mar Garcia)- Like Fire Chase, he also went on a four-race winning streak after breaking his maiden in September, with the highlight being the Grade 2 Remsen at AQU. More recently, we have seen him run well in both the Withers, where he was third, and the San Felipe, where he was second. For now, that puts him in a good spot in the KYD leaderboard, 18th with 42 points, but after this weekend that might not be good enough. Im Sorry So Sorry seems to belong in the KYD but needs to get something out of this race to ensure his spot.

5- Quick Knight (Mb Stables, ridden by R M Hernandez)- Ran against Im Sorry So Sorry last month at the San Felipe, and ended up running one spot behind him at the end. For Quick Knight, it was his stake debut, and he was not bothered by the mud at all. That third-place effort got him 15 points, which ranks him 36th overall on the leaderboard. Mb Stables has six ahead of him, but if Quick Knight were to win this race, Mb is going to have to give this one a long hard thought about being one of this three even with the ones he has looking good right now.

6- Van Go Go (Fractious, ridden by Ru Silvera)- Looked good last November when he won the Grade 2 KY Jockey Club at CD, but if he wants to return to that track for the KYD, he’s going to have to reverse his recent form. In both the Withers and the Rebel, this closer simply did not close and only got up to the middle of the pack. Maybe we will see an adjustment to his tactics here, but nonetheless, he needs a good result, KYD or not, to show he can still handle the highest of competition. 41st on the leaderboard with eleven points.

7- Capiche (Fractious, ridden by J C Ferrer)- Everything was going great for this one, getting two wins in FL-bred races, including the $300.000 In Reality. He would then run third in each of the San Vicente and the Holy Bull, but then the rain came for the San Felipe and it led to a dismal performance. If we can write that off for only that reason, then Capiche will be very appealing here as rain is not in the forecast for Saturday here. He only has six points, so must finish in the top two. How much we want to dismiss the San Felipe due to the off track is the big question here.

8- Samus (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by F Pennington)- Claimed by the trainer for $40.000 and made his stake debut three weeks later and won the $75.000 Gold Rush. That upward trend has not continued for him though, as he could only run in the middle of the pack in both the Lecomte and the SUN Derby. Those results were enough for the trainer to drop him into an optional claimer last month, and even there, he was second best. This is a last-ditch effort for Samus to make the field but D J C quietly has put two in the top 12 (and three in the top 22).

9- Waterville (London Racing, ridden by U Rispoli)- We had more examples of horses making their stake debut in the Wood Memorial, but in the SA Derby, Waterville is the only one in the field that is doing so. He’s no stranger to this racetrack, as after being gelded, he has run here against State Breds three times, and won once. That came last month in a sprint, and now he will run long for the second time. The first time wasn’t good but works show he should be better.

10- Soho Story (Allinthegate, ridden by F Geroux)- Showed plenty of promise early on in his career, but after being graduated into graded competition, he has not been able to make an impact. After back-to-back eighth place runs in the Remsen and the Holy Bull, the trainer took a step back to the $250.000 Animal Kingdom, a six-furlong race, where he was fourth. While this horse seems to have the ingredients of a good one, he needs to start living up to that again.

11- Prestigious Freak (Saratoga Stud, ridden by T Gaffalione)- Another horse who has plenty of experience at this racetrack. After being gelded in September, all of four of his starts have been here, winning two in overnights before running in the Grade 3 Lewis Stakes. A steady midpack run there most of the way saw him get by a few late to be third, but he did not follow that up with similar last month in the mud at the San Felipe. As we asked with Capiche, how much can we dismiss that due to the rain? The gelding has six points and is right behind Capiche on the leaderboard.

12- Double Entendre (Riggins Racing, ridden by M E Smith)- The last three races for this one, dating back to December, have been on the turf, and in them he has managed one win. That came at HOU for the $100.000 Texas Turf Mile, and he would have another good grass run here last month, placing third in the Pasadena. The appeal of the KYD will lead the trainer to putting him on the dirt for the first time since the Grey Stakes, where he was a non-factor.

13- Southern Oak (South Shore Stables, ridden by S Elliot)- Another horse that we saw run in the mud at the San Felipe, but when Southern Oak did it, it was not for his current trainer. On the heels of running second in the Lewis Stakes, Southern Oak could only place sixth in the San Felipe and would be acquired by South Shore Stables for $175.000 two weeks later in private sales. There’s not much to look at in terms of works, but what is there shows that he can handle this field on his best day. 46th on the leaderboard with ten points.

14- Key To The Forest (Alydar Stables, ridden by D E Centeno)- Found himself way back in the Mike La Rosa LA Derby, but did make a late run to get up for fifth. That’s the way that he has been historically, and it served him well in races like the Battaglia Memorial at TP where he ran second. He was not as far out of it there early, though, so D E Centeno is going to make sure that the leaders are not going to get too much of an advantage here at the start.

Prediction: 3-7-4-5

— NS

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES