BC Dirt Mile (Grade 1)- $1,000.000 Purse
DMR- For Three Year Olds and Upward
One Mile on the Dirt
November 2, 2024

There will be BC races on Saturday that attract more attention, but these talented dirt milers should not be overlooked as the 18th running of the BC Dirt Mile takes place at DMR. This is a race that has been won by the likes of Whats Up, Hardline, and Moment Of Madness. Recently, it has been a good race for Arindel, as the trainer has won two of the last three editions including last year with Seydoux II. That gelding is still active and in the barn of Luz International but is no longer running at the stake level. Another very successful trainer in the race is Australia Wide, and while that name could seem like a blast from the past, he did win this race as recently as 2020 in what was his last victory as a trainer. Fourteen horses will be lined up in the starting gate in hopes of becoming a BC Champion. Let’s take a look at them:

1- Tehran (Mb Stables, ridden by M Franco)- Ran in this race last year, and didn’t miss the win by much as he settled for third. Took no prisoners in his first race of 2024, winning a starter allowance at SA by five lengths, which would begin a year that saw three wins and two seconds over his seven starts. He was at his best over the summer, winning the Grade 3 PRM Cornhusker Handicap in July and the Grade Obrien Stakes in August, the latter making it official that he would be running here. In between, he was second in the San Diego Handicap here, and in all of these races he turned in a triple digit SRF. His last start was a head scratcher, but it’s atypical enough out of him to where I am not worried about it.

2- Lunar Victory (Fractious, ridden by P Lopez)- This horse can be hit and miss, and that isn’t something that you really want to see in a race like this. He’s made eight starts, this year, and the good part of that is two wins and two seconds. Those victories were the Grade 3 Blame on a rain-soaked day at CD, and the Grade 2 CT Classic. He ran particularly good at the bullring, and if he can harness that version of himself here, there is no reason that he cannot get the win here. Then, we have concerns, and that would be his no-shows in both the OP Mile and the Alysheba. The Brooklyn was also a dud but maybe too long for him. Fourth last time out in the Woodward, but never a threat to the top two. In a field like this, I have to look elsewhere.

3- Good Knights (Our Athletes, ridden by F Geroux)- One of four three-year-olds in the race, and all of them will be carrying three fewer pounds than the rest of the field will be. Good Knights began his year by running in KYD preps and showing that he was a contender to make that race right away, thanks to running second in both the Grade 3 Lecomte and the Grade 2 Rebel. Sure enough, he did get into the KYD but would only find himself being passed by a handful in the late moments. After that, we began to see the trainer cutting back on distance, getting a win in the Grade 1 Stephens. Last time out, he made his turf debut and was third in the Grade 1 Simpson, so that is something that the trainer can have in his back pocket for future consideration. For now, Good Knights is a horse that has been at his best when running closest to a mile, so if nothing else, this is the distance that the trainer wants.

4- Pompano Beach (Threshold, ridden by M E Smith)- Passed through many barns in claimers, but once he arrived with Threshold last year, he showed the virtual racing world what he is capable of. He would begin 2024 with a win in an N2X allowance at FG, and from there, it has been nothing but productive finishes. Notice, though, that I did not say victories, because Pompano Beach would not win another race this year and is actually only 2-for-17 in his career with no stake wins. Despite that, he’s been finishing second quite a few times, and that includes a near miss in the Grade 2 Eclipse in June. Finished in that spot in the PRX Dirt Mile, as well. Ordinarily, I will pick a horse like this to continue his streak of hitting the board, but this race is a little too deep. He also hasn’t attempted a Grade 1 this year until now.

5- Domiano (Rock Creek, ridden by F Prat)- Two months ago, Domiano was sold by Fractious to Rock Creek for $1,500.000. That’s a big price to pay, but the Hard To Deny colt was hot leading into the sale, with three wins over four starts. In June, he was out at SAR and would win the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap to formally clinch his spot here in the BC. But that was not going to be all for him, as he made it two in a row six weeks later with a wire-to-wire effort in the Grade 3 MTH Cup. That is the race that led to the sale, and while Fractious will be happy with his purchase price, Rock Creek now wants to cash in. He knew he was getting a BC horse when he picked him up but didn’t get what he was hoping for in their only race together, to date, which was the JC Gold Cup. He’s at his best running between seven and nine furlongs, so will be comfortable here. Should be a contender.

6- On Schedule (Mb Stables, ridden by T Gaffalione)- Ran in the BC Sprint last year, and finished ninth, but the six-year-old gelding has been versatile over his career in regard to distance. This year, he has hit the board five times in nine starts, but only one of those was a win. That was also the only time this year where he ran exactly a mile, coming in a field of five in the Grade 3 Sexton Mile, a $400.000 race that you would think would draw a bigger field. After running third in the Nerud in July, On Schedule has been late and not cashed a check. The Crosby was a particular struggle, but the trainer could have had his hopes rekindled with the way he ran in the Phoenix, with the most frustrating finish known to HRP trainers: fifth by a length (or less). Worked well last week, but he has always been great in the morning.

7- West Lunacy Party (Black N Gold Stable, ridden by J Lezcano)- This 38-race veteran actually does not have much stake experience. For the vast majority of his career, he’s been running in claimers of varying sizes, but it would not before arriving with Black N Gold Stable did we see West Lunacy Party take off. That was not immediate, at all, as the horse even ran in a bunch of free track claimers in 2023 with Black N Gold Stable before finally getting a chance to prove himself in bigger races in 2024. Made his graded debut at a familiar track, the WV Governors Stakes at MNR and came from behind to be second. A month later, he was running third in the Woodward. He’s getting better with age, and you can’t rule out this type of horse.

8- Excoriator (Jerry Garcia Racing, ridden by D Cohen)- The next three horses in the race are all three-year-olds, and Excoriator was one of my favorite horses during KYD prep season. And why not? He began this year off with a bang, winning the San Vicente, Holy Bull, and Ruby Stakes all in succession to prove that he was not only worthy of being in the KYD, but that he could also win the race. That wouldn’t happen, though there is no shame in finishing sixth in that race. Interestingly enough, he would not reappear in another TC race. Ran second in both the Winn and the Dandy, which set himself up for the Grade 1 Travers. After running on the lead, he found himself passed late but finally rebounded with his first win since the spring in the $300.000 Harrods Creek. I still like this horse, but he needs to step up against Grade 1 company. Running only a mile instead of a mile and a quarter will help that. Very much a threat!

9- Test The Waters (Mb Stables, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- Ran second in the BC Juvenile Turf last year, but would quickly forego the grass as a three-year-old in hopes of chasing TC glory. That would be the right move, as a win in the Grade 3 Withers at AQU immediately put him on the radar of top KYD threats. Preps would continue to go well for him, and in March, a runner up performance in the FL Derby solidified him as a runner in the big race. While the KYD was a struggle for him, Test The Waters impressively bounced back two weeks later by being second in the PRK. Mb Stables then went back to the turf with him, and he would be second in the BEL Derby. After a few turf races, it was back to the dirt for the Woodward, where he was second. So, it doesn’t matter what surface he is on, he gets it done. Throw out the KYD, and he’s a very consistent horse.

10- Edward The Good (Fractious, ridden by J R Velazquez)- In only eight starts, he has lived up to his name by being very good, but the best is yet to come. That could start right here with a BC win, as his three-year-old season has seen four wins and two seconds. Not too bad for a horse that Fractious picked up in private sales for $25.000 after only a race at MNR. In May, he would win the Grade 2 Day Mile, which is on the KYD undercard at CD, but later he would be taking on horses that ran in the KYD, the PA Derby. Finished second in that one, missing by half a length, but there is no reason to think that he cannot improve from that. He was actually 11th in points for the BC Classic, but Fractious has three other good ones for that. Edward The Good should be considered one of the top choices.

11- One Last Punch Line (Alydar Stables, ridden by D Van Dyke)- Most of his 33 career eaces have been in overnights, and he was running in allowances at TUP as recently as February of this year. He would be moved to the grass and would win the Grade 3 Louisville at CD in May, which is at a mile and a half. After struggling in the Wise Dan, it would be back to the main track where he would win the SD Handicap. However, his last two races have been struggles, finishing ninth in both the Pacific Classic and the Grace 3 Ack Ack. That’s a concern for how he might handle better competition in a full field like this race. Worked beautifully at KEE in anticipation of this.

12- Speter (Fractious, ridden by P Lopez)- This one has had no shortage of stake experience over his 37-race career, but still that did not stop him from being claimed twice for $50.000 during 2024. Our Athletes was the first to pick him up for that price, but Speter would only last in that barn for one race when Fractious also claimed him for $50.000. Fractious liked what he saw and gave Speter a chance to run in a graded stake once again. That race would be the Grade 3 Dominion Day Stakes where he was second, and after that, he would finish in the same position for the Grade 1 Whitney. With that, if there was any concern that Speter could not be the horse he once was, it was gone. Now, perhaps he could even be better than that. At CD in the slop, he would win the Grade 3 Ack Ack, and now here is, making his first career BC start. A pretty interesting year he has had, and he may not be done adding to his story yet.

13- Charming Man (Rock Creek, ridden by P Husbands)- It’s a move that is only 24 hours old as of press time, but Charming Man is now part of the Rock Creek stable after the trainer picked him for $350.000 from Fractious. So, when adding in Domiano, Rock Creek has paid Fractious $1,850.000 for two horses in the BC Dirt Mile, yet Fractious has still been able to qualify three for this race, himself. Not a bad trade for both of them. Charming Man has won two of eight this year, which is highlighted by a victory in the Grade 3 WV Governors Stakes at MNR. He’s not as consistent as you’d like to see, but the more concerning races are at a longer distance.

14- Xavier Breath (Maxmillion Farm, ridden by Mar Garcia)- Starting from the outside is this six-year-old gelding by Grandeur that has recently gone back and forth between the dirt and the turf. He would win his first two races of the year, taking the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap and the Grade 3 OP Mile, each run at OP, and even though he has not won another race since then, he has continued to be productive. Two of his last three races have been on the turf, but the one in between them, the Grade 3 Seagram Cup Stakes, saw a solid third place effort. Xavier Breath has consistently been producing triple digit SRF’s when running around a mile on the dirt, and he’s working well coming into this.

Prediction: 10-8-5-12

— NS

Categories: BC 2024, Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, THE BREEDERS CUP