The AR Derby – GI [KYD]
4/11/20
OP Race 2 1 1/8M – Dirt
Purse $1000.000
Three Year Olds

And here we are for the final big Kentucky Derby prep of the year which is the grade one Arkansas Derby here at Oaklawn Park. A full field of fourteen three year olds will be set to go. Let’s take a look at the field.

1. Personal Beliefs (9-3-2-1 $400.000), trained by La Canada Racehorses

Already a Derby prep winner right here when he won the grade three Ruby Stakes at Turfway in his last start going wire to wire. He ran a huge race that day but still needs more points to make the Derby field. He stands a big a shot in here I think.

2. Sail Away (8-3-1-0 $280.000), trained by Mb Stables

A grade one winner at two but this horse has not been able to even come close to that early form he showed in his career. Obviously the hope is still there as he is in this race but unless he turns it around big time he won’t be close in my opinion.

3. Stark (10-1-2-1 $312.800), trained by D J C Racing Stables

A multiple graded stakes place runner right here and in his last race he was third in the Louisiana Derby. He was in front at the too of the stretch in there but got caught late. If he can run like that here he has a good chance to win.

4. Silent Commander (6-3-2-0 $204.840), trained by Serenity Stables

Very good in his first couple races of his career but his last start was not very good at all when he was sixth in the Fountain Of Youth. He needs to regain his two year old form to have any shot at winning this one.

5. Midnight Special (7-2-0-1 $133.600), trained by Allinthegate

Lately this horse has been trying to come from the clouds in his recent races but that has not seemed to work very well. He was fourth in the Gotham in his last start so we will see if the extra distance can help his off the pace style of late.

6. Inoubliable (6-3-2-1 $151.880), trained by T Boy Racing

Next up is my New Mexico bred charge and so far that is all he has ran against. He has two stakes wins to his name but at the statebred level. Not really sure how he stacks up with this field but figured I’d take a shot with him.

7. Cognac Bay (6-2-1-3 $109.760), trained by Gdp Inc

Another one with at least a couple of Derby points and he picked those up in the Sunland Derby where he was in a dead heat for third. He still needs to improve a lot off of that to make some noise in here though.

8. Workload (6-2-2-0 $225.170), trained by Mb Stables

Second one in here from Mb Stables and he was beaten soundly in his last when seventh in the Rebel here at Oaklawn which was on a bad track. He was second in the Southwest before that so he needs to run back to that race for any shot in here.

9. Into Mischief (5-1-2-0 $168.220), trained by Nakamura Stables

Gelding obviously did the trick for this horse as he won a maiden and then was a very good second in the Sunland Derby in his last out. He has shown a lot of early speed in his last two so he needs a slow pace so he can hang around late.

10. Angelsinheaven (10-2-2-2 $303.000), trained by Angelos Stable

It is very rare to have an autogen this good in these days but this horse has a lot of talent. He was beaten a nose in the sloppy Rebel last time so if he can like a dry track as much as a wet one he could he awfully tough in here.

11. Notorious Temper (8-4-1-0 $513.500), trained by Night Rider Stables

Another one coming out of other prep races and in his last start he was fourth in the Louisiana Derby. He did not run a bad race at all that day and if he can improve off that he could have a chance to win.

12. Graveyard (7-3-0-1 $372.380), trained by Mb Stables

Third and final runner from Mb Stables here and this horse is coming into this race off of a fifth place finish in the Rebel on the slop. He has a bad post to work with and he has not shown enough in my opinion to beat this field.

13. Lucky Storm (9-2-4-1 $337.600), trained by Arindel

Scratched

14. Strong Kommand (7-1-0-1 $256.000), trained by Tiratzo

If there is anything I know about this horse it’s that he absolutely hates the off track as he put in a career worst twelfth in the Rebel last time. Besides that he has a horrendous post draw and form not good enough to suggest that he can win.

15. The End (3-1-1-0 $45.400), trained by Team 7 Illusions

Drawing in from the also eligible here is a recent maiden winner against statebred competition at Aqueduct. Being how he just broke his maiden and has a terrible draw I just can’t see him getting the victory in here.

Summary

Well since this is the last chance to make a spot into the Derby field and there is only a three week turn around to the Derby the best three year olds are not necessarily in this race. My top choice is Personal Beliefs form the inside post. Good luck to all in the field.

1-3-10-9

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES