The FL Derby (Grade 1) (KYD)- $1,000.000 Purse
GP- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Eighth on the Dirt
March 30, 2024

Last week saw the beginning of 100-point KYD races, and more horses put themselves in a great position to make the field. Over the next two weeks, that excitement will only increase as many prestigious prep races will take place. On Saturday, there are two big 100-point races, and here we will look at the FL Derby. This race will run for the 21st time, and has seen the likes of Five Fives, Karloff, and Compress get the win in the race. It’s seen some surprises, such as in 2021 when the late Added Value got the win. Last year’s winner, Keep Me Apprised, was also a surprise. The Alydar Stables colt went off at odds of 23/1 and was coming off his maiden win. He is still active, but that race seems to have been his last hurrah, as he struggled in the KYD, and in every race thereafter. Keep Me Apprised was last seen in a race in September. Our field of 14 has horses is a nicely balanced group, so let’s meet them:

1- Run Forty (Asgar, ridden by Ru Silvera)- Looking to become the second straight Racket Runner foal to win the FL Derby, and he should have a great shot. Ever since he first hit the track as a two-year-old, Run Forty has been running exceptionally well, hitting the board in all nine starts, with three wins. He’s won a pair of PA-bred races, then carried that into a second place run in the Holy Bull and a third place run in the Fountain Of Youth. Despite that, he is only 22nd on the KYD leaderboard, so needs to run well here. I think he will!

2- Kindred Bucks (Nakamura Stables, ridden by A A Gallardo)- At the moment, Nakamura is on the outside looking in at the KYD. Kindred Bucks is 83rd on the leaderboard right now, but the trainer has nothing higher. That’s a bit unusual for him, as we are accustomed to seeing him in the KYD. Kindred Bucks will need to be a lot better than he was in the Gotham at the start of March, with a flat looking race line, placing seventh.

3- Targeted Breeding (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by F Pennington)- This is not a horse that has shown much for his career, but TwinTowersRacing still firmly believes in him. He has one win in nine starts, but that is also the only time he has hit the board. His last three races are in overnights and were poor. But maybe the difference can come with the longer distance. The trainer is confident, but I can’t put virtual money on him.

4- Test The Waters (Mb Stables, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- Right now, Mb Stables has five horses in the top 20, and Test The Waters is fourth of them, being 17th overall. While I doubt it will end up that way, there is an outside chance that the trainer will not be needing to make a decision of what three horses to choose for the KYD. The three in the top seven are just fine, but Test The Waters probably needs to get a little something here. After the winning the Withers, he placed fourth in the Gotham earlier in the month.

5- Inviting (Mb Stables, ridden by F Prat)- Gets the spot right next to his stablemate in the gate, but he is not as close to him on the KYD leaderboard. Inviting sits 39th with ten points, and he can thank a fourth-place performance in the Fountain Of Youth for that. His career began in a promising manner, running well in juvenile graded stakes at SAR, but after finishing in the middle of the pack at the BC Juvenile, he’s gone under the radar a bit. He did run second against FL-Breds in the In Reality and is capable of getting the job done here as well, but he can’t slip up.

6- Blazing (Maxmillion Farm, ridden by Jo Dominguez)- Gets his first chance to run at the stake level, and he seems to have plenty of potential. First off, he had a great work at OP in February, which came about three weeks after he broke his maiden. Even with that, he was run in an optional claimer here on the 13th of this month, where he also won, and with limited time to make his way into the KYD, he’s going to be right back at it. There are no Maxmillion Farm horses anywhere on the KYD leaderboard, something that seems pretty unbelievable. No way that can continue.

7- Lasting Impressions (Alydar Stables, ridden by A Cedillo)- Looking to get his trainer his second straight win in the FL Derby, and he should not be ruled out. This is also a horse that is running on short rest, as he last ran two weeks ago in the $100.000 Hutcheson Stakes, at six furlongs. He does have seven points on the KYD leaderboard, so it’s interesting that he went there to cut back on distance and then comes right back here. Worked well on Monday here and will be a contender if he can back that up in this race.

8- Backroad Bounty (Aer Stables, ridden by S X Bridgmohan)- A horse that looks to be in good shape for the KYD, but a win in the FL Derby could cement himself as one of the favorites for the race itself, and I don’t think he is quite considered to be that yet. He ran second three weeks ago to Power Grid at the TAM Derby, and previously won the SUN Derby. Those results amount to 45 points on the leaderboard. He’s never run a bad race after being gelded but took a little longer than some others to move up through the ranks.

9- Razzi Moon (The Freakshow, ridden by P Husbands)- We saw him here at the start of the month for the Fountain Of Youth, but he did not make much of an impression as he finished seventh with a flat, overall, race. Previously, he had been a lot better in the Holy Bull, showing good closing kick to get up for third, a result that got him six points for the KYD Chase. That’s the version of himself that simply must show up here. I don’t have a strong feeling either way as to whether or not he can bounce back as he’s done so from a dud before, but this is against much better.

10- Cochabamba (Riggins Racing, ridden by Jo Rodriguez)- Showing that there is actually little class structure within the game, Cochabamba was last seen at the prestigious FON racetrack and won a $6.000 allowance even though a work nine days prior suggested he belonged in better. Well, now he is going to see the other end of the equation with a direct move into the FL Derby. He’s still working well, but he never really wasn’t. FON to FL Derby winner in one start? Well, it is possible.

11- Fear The Stars (Riggins Racing, ridden by R M Hernandez)- Makes his three-year-old debut here in the FL Derby, after last being seen in the muddy RP Springboard Mile in December. That race didn’t springboard him into anything, as his disappointing eighth place finish was not really indicative of a solid year that he had. His works aren’t poor, but there are others in here that are working better and some by about a second, so Fear The Stars will need to be one that knows how to step it up on race day. We’ll see.

12- Prometheus (Smokey Stover, ridden by D E Centeno)- Finally broke his maiden last month, coming at SA after consistently running well and hitting the board in high level maidens. That did allow the trainer to earn almost $100.000 with the colt, and it is not uncommon to see this type of horse roll off a streak once they finally learn how to win. He’s working well, consistently being trained at a mile, so there is no question that he will be ready to roll here. It is appealing that he’s never run a bad race, but now he has his biggest test, for sure.

13- Mandate City (Alydar Stables, ridden by T Gaffalione)- Alydar brings two to the starting gate here, and Mandate City will be looking for his third straight win. We last saw him in the $60.000 TUP Derby, a race that always gives a good field, so I wouldn’t just brush off his winning that race as being not that significant. Obviously, he will take on his biggest challenge here, but we are saying that about others in the field as well, so there is no reason to think that he also cannot step it up. Works don’t really jump out at me, though.

14- Capiche (Fractious, ridden by S Elliott)- Fractious currently has two horses in the top six of the leaderboards, but he has room for another one. He has five between 27th and 40th, and further down his stable board, he has Capiche at 55th, with six points. This Falling Angel gelding ran third here in the Holy Bull in February, and prior to that was third in the San Vicente while also boasting a win in the In Reality here from December. His last time out was not as memorable, as he badly faded in the mud at the Grade 2 San Felipe at SA. We can toss that out no problem, but I would have loved to have seen a recent public mile work on him.

Prediction: 1-8-6-4

— NS

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES