3/12/2022

  16  TAM    The TAM Derby (GII) [KYD]

        $400.000         3yo          1 1/16m  Dirt           120lbs

Another weekend in Oldsmar and that never disappoints me… we look at the field for The TAM Derby (GII) which could be a big feather in the cap as all of the sophomores make their way towards Louisville.  I landed on Shamo for this one as he just never seems to run a bad race.  The big barn knows how to get the job done and this looks like a spot for him to keep his hot hand hot.  Let’s stay outside and put Karloffs Monster in the middle of things.  She’s been sharp and we all know that the gals have been puttin’ a whippin’ on the boys.  Add in that she has speed and that seems to be the magic.  Let’s move to the rail for the third choice and give Elemental a shot to build off of his four race career and he may be looking for the distance, as well. 

The overnight rains have the track listed as muddy and a couple of these broke maiden on wet surfaces, so that could lend to their cases for a win.  Even the filly had a second on a muddy track… it’s going to be an interesting day in TAM.  At this time, we have no changes, no scratches.  

It’s a nice group and I won’t be surprised by any outcome.

Here’s The Field –  

Two wins from only four starts and was closing fast when third in the Swale (GIII), which was his first swing at black-type foes.  Obviously he still has room to improve and when you add in the rail post, he may be a serious contender in this one. 

I was really thinking he’d bounce back and be a bigger threat in the Davis (GIII) last out, over this track… but a mid-pack finish, even though he was only a length back, just wasn’t the finish that was expected. 

Two wins from only five starts and carried the mail to deep stretch in the Davis (GIII) over this strip.  Fourth beaten three-quarters of a length is certainly nothing to be ashamed of and he’s beaten Cal-bred stakes company so there’s no doubt he can be in the mix here. 

Closed a late gap to be third in the Davis (GIII) here last out, that after being sole and a couple of nice races where he was second in the Gray Stakes (GIII) at WO and won the Run Runner at FG.  He can run, it’s just a matter of if he can get a clear path late. 

Broke maiden, was third over this track in the Pasco then threw a bad one last out when last in the Davis (GIII).  The vet has come by to make the unkindest of cuts, so let’s see if this gets his mind back on the race game. 

Broke maiden at MTH, was third in a pair of NY-bred stakes, then was fifth in a pair of open stakes.  He went evenly in the Jerome at AQU then tired at GP in the Swale (GIII).  He needs to get it together a bit if he wants to be a threat today. 

Two wins and a trio of runner-up finishes from his nine starts, so he’s been where you want your horse to be.  But his graded efforts have been less than terrific, a tiring tenth in the Ky Jock Club (GII) after setting the early pace, and he did close a bit to be fifth beaten a length in the Davis (GIII) so maybe he gets in the picture when it counts.  

Two wins and a second from his five lifetime starts, but he only beat one in his only stakes start, an eleventh in the Sugar Bowl.  He set the pace only to get nailed on the wire vs Alw horses at SA last out, but he is certainly eligible to improve. 

Won the BC Juv Tuf (GI) and has done most of his damage on the turf course, three of his four wins coming on the green stuff, and his dirt stakes efforts have been lacking.  Can he move his turf form over to the main track?

He’s never run a bad race showing a 3-1-2 history from his six starts.  He just missed in the Gray Stakes (GIII) at WO, and was third in both the Jerome and WIthers (GIII), but he’s tired in both of those races.  This could be a spot for him to get back to the winner’s circle. 

Broke maiden at WO and won the Lafitte at DED, but was sold after a seventh place finish in the Jerome.  All of his other stakes efforts were iffy, but the new barn will try to turn that around in short order.  Can he bounce back?

She’s been sharp in his last four starts, breaking miaden at SA, was second vs high end Alw horses at CD then was third in the Untapable before winning the Suncoast over this track last out.  She seems to like this track so give her a big look ’cause Filly Fuel is where it’s at.  

He’s a maiden and would need some luck to draw in… I’m not sure they want him in here. 

COZMAN   10 / 12 / 1            Willie’s Green Card    8 / 1 / 10 

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES, TC 2021-2023, THE TRIPLE CROWN