12/23 The Gravesend Handicap
AQU Race #2 6f Dirt Stake
Purse $100.000 (plus up to $15.000 for NY-breds) For Three Year Olds And Upward.

1 Rodeo Allinthegate – Scratch –

2 Storming Cobra Mo Mentum Farm DeCarlo C P

This three year old gets in here with bottom weight mainly thanks to the fact that he has been running largely in route races this year. An early TC contender with a win in the Davis Stakes he failed to get into the KYD just missing out after defeats in the TAM and AR Derby’s. He stuck with distance races after that running good races to be second in the Affirmed and fourth in the LA Derby but hasnt managed another win since that Davis Stakes in February. This lack of success has caused his trainer to have a go at sprinting and he hasnt done badly running fifth in the Jerkins Memorial and fourth in the Kennedy Road Stakes. Running from this gate is an advantage but this one has just lacked that will to win that is so important at HRP and i wonder whether his best days are behind him. At his best he could win but that has to be taken on trust.

3 No Chill John Henry Lezcano J

Another one that has been all over the place this year running in races from a mile and a half to five and a half furlongs on both turf and dirt. Its really hard to read his form but on the face of it he may not be good enough although this is his first try at this trip so who knows this may be the magic formula.

4 Royal Prodigy Alydar Stables Maragh Ro

This very good six year old may be getting on a bit but he retains enough ability to be a real chance in this race off a very winnable handicap mark. His whole career had been about running distance races but as is the case at HRP the trip doesnt seem to matter as much as the class factor and in his last two stats he has run in sprints and been fairly effective. A great draw will help his chances and i expect him to be pushing the pace early and could be there at the end.

5 Growley Greeko Holdem Davis D

He has shown some marked improvement in his last two starts but does get a harsh handicap mark for his efforts. His last start win in the Thanksgiving Handicap was very good and he went under 1.09 that day so despite a poor weight situation he may just be the one.

6 Have Some Faith Threshold Hernandez R M

A winner of four from six this year he is a good sort but may find top weight too much for him today. He ran very well when coming from off the pace in the Bold Venture ending up third but couldnt do the same in the SA Sprint Championship next time. He stepped back into overnights last time and made all to win despite exactly the same instructions so who knows what we will get today. I dont think he can run under 1.09 with this weight so he may have to settle for a place again.

7 Moving Cloud RNP Stables Carmouche K

Another veteran he was bought for just $5 but is clearly much better than that. A determined third in the Fall Highweight Handicap last time gives him every chance off bottom weight and he may just be the best handicapped horse in the race.

8 St Leger Magnifique Aml Racing Cohen D

Despite fairly ordinary form this one has shown enough improvement under his new owner to be a force today. A pacey sort he may just go to the lead today from this draw and if he doesnt go too fast he could still be there at the end.

9 Cause I Do Greeko Holdem Franco M

A winner of five from seven this year he is much better than the cheap claimer that he was claimed from back in August. He gets a tough draw today but he did well from a wide draw last time out so that may not be such an issue for him. Another one in the mix in what will be a very close race.

10 Big Sweeping The Sidley Stud Alvarado J

Joint top weight and a wide draw will make it very tough for this in form horse from an in form stable. A winner of his last five, four of those came on the fair tracks which wouldnt be a great advert for his chances but in his last start also racing from a wide draw he took the CC Express with a determined late run. He shouldnt be able to win with top weight but this is a rapidly improving horse who looks to have received some fairy dust recently so who knows.

SUMMARY

This is a tough race to read and no doubt with this being HRP there will only be a length or two covering them all at the end, making it very hard to pick a winner. For me i think i would have to take a chance on Storming Cobra or Moving Cloud but as i said it will all come down to who gets the breaks in this tight field so i have very little confidence in my choices

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded