October 5, 2016
For the better part of 70 years, the Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup was the ultimate race to win for a colt or gelding in North America, carrying with it the prestige of a Kentucky Derby, an Epsom Derby, a Prix d’Arc de Triomphe or a Little Brown Jug in harness racing. Inaugural winner Purchase would have been Three-Year-Old champion were it not for Sir Barton, the first Triple Crown winner, while the winner in 1920 was none other than Man o’ War, named by many as the greatest horse of the 20th Century. Triple Crown winners line the landscape of the Gold Cup throughout history with Gallant Fox in 1930, War Admiral in 1938, Whirlaway in 1942 and the immortal Citation in 1948, while the latter half of the century would mark the true emergence of the race as a stepping stone to greatness.
In 1955 and 1956, it was Nashua. In 1957, it was Gallant Man. In 1959, it was Sword Dancer and in 1960 to 1964, it was Kelso. Buckpasser, Damascus, two-time winning mare Shuvee. From Forego to Exceller, through Affirmed and John Henry, to Easy Goer and Cigar and Skip Away and Curlin, the list goes on and on and on, ranking as one of the greatest collection of winners in horse racing history. In recent years, the advent of bigger races at smaller tracks and the addition of purse money to the Breeder’s Cup has seen the Gold Cup take a backseat but that has certainly not diminished its history and it still grabs headlines for all who enter it, and stands alone in history as the ultimate accomplishment for so many stars.
The HRP editions of the Grade I JC Gold Cup have also been a stepping stone for many of the greatest horses to hit the track, starting with Little Slick in 2004 before his follow-up win in the BC Classic and HOL Derby. Icicle defeated KYD winner Sleepless Nights in a stirring renewal the following year and won the Classic himself as well, while Natural Born Killer was not as lucky in 2006 when he defeated Dark Crown, who would come back to win the Classic himself a few weeks later. Barbarino was a two-time winner and won the Classic as well, Rancho Ruler won in 2009 as part of a five-race streak that included the Queen’s Plate, Haskell and Travers. Madhouse pulled off the Gold Cup-Classic double in 2010, The Windy City nearly did it 2012 and last year, Hyper Silver became the oldest horse to win at the age of six and will try to return for a repeat against another full field on Saturday. Standing in his path are winners of the BEL, Haskell, Travers, Pacific Classic, CT Classic, Woodward, LA Derby and Whitney; certainly not an easy field to beat and one that will require an absolute best performance from any who want to contend for the win.
1-Carneyman (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-John Henry)
In an era where the auto-generated horse is fading away, it is always nice to see one who steps up to continue a trend for the early days of HRP and Carneyman is just that, coming back from a dismal Spring to win both the BEL and the Haskell in true form, and with heavy dividends for his backers. Like many top runners in recent months, he has moved into a new barn for this attempt at three in a row and while his rail spot might get him to the front early, the pressure might prove to be too much and he will have to overcome a lot to prove his might yet again.
Analysis-Still vulnerable despite two huge Grade I wins
Fair Odds-8/1
2-Royal Prodigy (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
A mild sixth in the slop last year, Royal Prodigy returns to BEL for the Gold Cup this time around but without a win in seven seasonal starts and really, with hopes of building on his third in the Woodward where he had the lead but was outfinished to the wire. Sitting close to the pace has been his best tactic but he has yet to breakthrough this campaign and on Saturday, will be a longshot to make a dent in what is arguably the best field assembled in the Classic division this year.
Analysis-Pace presence but can he last the ten-furlongs?
Fair Odds-15/1
3-Bo Jangles (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Australia Wide)
This handicapper touted Bo Jangles as a horse to watch in the Travers and he came away with a co-victory to extend his winning streak to four races but now faces the toughest test of his career and for the first time, older runners who are experienced at this track and could be much faster at this distance. A 102-speed rating earned at SAR is well within the scope of the top horses here and he should be fresh from the farm, especially coming from a barn who won this race three times and looks poised to get back to the top of the podium very soon.
Analysis-Rides a big streak into the biggest race of his season
Fair Odds-5/1
4-Port On The Horizon (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
As noted in the preview for the Pacific Classic, Port On The Horizon always seems to clunk up for a minor award and did so once at DMR, leading some to believe that he could be coming up to a big race like he did around this time last year. R J Albarado sticks with this gelding and he has been stationed at BEL for his last four workouts, giving him a home court advantage over others and making him an intriguing prospect for a smaller share.
Analysis-Usually finds this distance and class to his liking
Fair Odds-10/1
5-Greek Poet (Four-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Hawaiian Shirt Guy)
Greek Poet was absolutely dismal in the sloppy Gold Cup last year as a vast longshot but has an incredible record going 1 ¼ miles this year and could be the likely favourite after his dead-heat score in the Pacific Classic and his win in the SA Handicap earlier this year. Speed ratings have been excellent and there is only a slight rain of an off-track come Saturday so look for a stalking trip around the big turns and the continuation of what has already been a very good four-year-old campaign.
Analysis-Likely favourite off his record at ten-furlongs this year
Fair Odds-4/1
6-Chonburi (Five-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Emerald Racing Inc)
Chonburi has been carefully handled this year with only four starts but proved best in the Washington Park Handicap in his last and looks poised to continue his good run at these extended distances. The question becomes one of class since he has never been able to handle more than Grade III company and if he gets into a fast pace, he is likely to get swallowed up and pushed out the back when all is said and done.
Analysis-Might not have the class or speed to handle this level
Fair Odds-15/1
7-Cool Guy Twist (Four-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Luz International)
A wire-to-wire winner of the State Dinner during the Spring meeting at BEL, Cool Guy Twist as been knocking at the door for much of his career and coming off a closing fifth in the Woodward, might be able to handle the added distance better than others. He usually likes to show pace in his races but rarely tends to stay the distance and if he gets into a position farther back in the field, he might be able to run on late and pick up a midpack finish before moving back into easier company.
Analysis-Faces a huge test for class
Fair Odds-20/1
8-A One (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Eastern Equine)
When PRK winner A One was purchased for a mammoth $1400.000 last June, people thought Eastern Equine was crazy to spend so much on a gelding but he has earned more than that with wins in the Travers, Malibu, CT Classic and Woodward, and could continue to build on his legacy with another huge effort here in his return to BEL. Shipped after his last-to-first run at SAR, he has worked well in the interim and will be the sentimental favourite to win his fifth Grade I event; add to that a versatility that others do not have and you could be looking at the best horse under a new and experienced rider.
Analysis-Top classes wins make him a key factor
Fair Odds-9/2
9-Enshrined (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
A closing third in the Whitney but only an even sixth in the Woodward over a fast main track, Enshrined certainly has been holding his own against good company as of late but faces another stern test and might not have what it takes to tackle this caliber of field yet again. Having earned more than his $28.000 claiming price, he is just another success story for his owner and will be well backed based on his connections but will assume longshot status until he can finally come through with a closing kick at these extended distances.
Analysis-Could not keep up late at SAR and faces a tougher task
Fair Odds-20/1
10-Hyper Silver (Seven-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)
Hyper Silver has gone without a victory since a soggy score at 19-1 in this same race last season and although he does have a couple of second place efforts, his big races have been lackluster and he might very well be a longer price than he was last year. Second in the Pacific Classic in 2015 before winning here, he used that same prep this time around but was only seventh as the favourite and that kind of effort will not be good enough to win here, especially against some of the best at HRP right now.
Analysis-Disappointing season adds to his odds
Fair Odds-30/1
11-Tiger Town (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Aer Stables)
Tiger Town has rattled off two Graded Stakes wins in quick succession at NP and LA but now faces the big boys over a big track and will have to continue his improvement if he wants to hit the top four. The short rest and the move clear across the country will be causes for concern, with the big question mark being the lack of a workout in between, which might leave him short in those crucial final furlongs.
Analysis-Comes back off a quick rest and might be short of his best
Fair Odds-15/1
12-Rapid Refund (Six-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Grimley)
Rapid Refund earned almost 1/3 of his career earnings when he closed for second in the Woodward, with only noses separating first to third, and while he might have earned some points for that effort, this still might be a little too difficult for him and he was have to move forward once again. These longer distances seem to be very good for him, with back-to-back 101-speed ratings to his credit, and he might be the one who benefits from the early pace up front the most, with a late kick expected from this gutsy gelding.
Analysis-Closed smartly in the Woodard and could get another good set-up
Fair Odds-15/1
13-Dogs Infowarrior (Five-year-old gray horse / Owner-Grimley)
Second going a marathon distance in the Brooklyn at nearly 21-1, Dogs Infowarrior was an even longer price in the Whitney and sprung a huge upset from just off the pace; whether that was a product of the mud or a tiring pace, he will now be asked to duplicate that effort and from an outside post, making things extra difficult. His best speed ratings are on the turf and he will need to get the perfect run so be wary of taking him at a lower price unless you think an off-track is in the cards.
Analysis-Upset the applecart at SAR and will try to do it against similar
Fair Odds-20/1
14-Stranger (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)
Since being purchased for $450.000 just over a year ago, Stranger has raced in six consecutive Grade I races including the Gold Cup last year and has yet to prove victorious, so taking her in this year’s edition from post 14 will be a stretch for even the shrewdest handicapper. He really hasn’t been beaten that far in any of his races and got into the race early from an outside gate last time but he will have to show more into the BEL backstretch and that could use up some unneeded energy while leaving her vulnerable for the long run to the wire.
Analysis-Outside post will make things tough despite decent form
Fair Odds-15/1
Overall
Grade I winners from all over the country gather at BEL for the Grade I JC Gold Cup and with $1000.000 in the line, the outcome will be decided in the final quarter-mile and Greek Poet has already proven himself twice this year at ten-furlongs, making him the slight favourite in a loaded field. A One will have the crowd on his side, as well as a recent win in the Woodward to fall back on and a strong closing kick, while a pair of three-year-old colts from the inside will be well backed with both Bo Jangles and Carneyman looking to extend winning streaks after taking down Grade I wins at SAR and MTH respectively.
Prediction
Win-Greek Poet (4/1)
Place-A One (9/2)
Show-Bo Jangles (5/1)
4th-Carneyman (8/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
