May 4, 2016

Although it only carries at Grade II status, the CD is still one of the premier sprinting events for males in North America and its position on the KYD undercard means that the best of the division will show up for a chance at $500.000, as evidenced by the field of 11 assembled for Saturday afternoon. At seven-furlongs, much like its F&M counterpart in the Humana Distaff, it also warrants the return of the defending champion, although Masterpiece Five only has a single win in eight starts since last year and did not even race in the BC Sprint, unlike fellow entrant Trench Admiral. Add in the top finishers from the Commonwealth at KEE and the Grade I Carter at AQU and you have a loaded field where the right trip, and the right pace, can set things up for anyone to win at a price.

1-Moon Landing (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)

The best way to make a case for Moon Landing in the CD is to look back at his seven-furlong races, where the closing speed matches up nicely with the early pace and sets things up for him to make a big run, like he did in the San Carlos. When the speed is slower, like in the Commonwealth, his kick is muted and the inside post will not help him if he wants to find much needed room down the lane against others who might have cleaner trips.

Analysis-Has had a tough time coming through in the clutch

Fair Odds-15/1

2-Swamp Fox (Five-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Blushing Meadows)

While Swamp Fox was a winning machine in the early and middle part of his career, he has not taken victory in almost 1.5-years and comes into the CD off a closing fourth in the Fleet Sprint Handicap, his sixth straight race at more than 10-1 odds. The likelihood is that he will be closing at the end from a disadvantage and while he might be able to clunk up for a piece, this handicapper will not be taking him for a big share against this star-studded field.

Analysis-Much better on turf and much better going shorter

Fair Odds-25/1

3-Hallelujah (Seven-year-old bay horse / Owner-Eastern Equine)

Just when you least expect it, Hallelujah seems to come up with a big effort in victory and with two wins and two close seconds in his last four starts, and multiple triple-digit speed ratings, he has to be ranked amongst the likely winners even if you do not believe he has the same sprinting background as others. He gets a returning jockey in the saddle and knows how to sit in a stalking position and make gains down the lane, which will be served well from his inside post and one that affords him the chance to get the jump on rivals in the short CD stretch.

Analysis-Burned money before but has all the talent necessary

Fair Odds-4/1

4-Trench Admiral (Four-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Grimley)

Second in the San Carlos and third in the Commonwealth, both to winners who are in this field, Trench Admiral has the trump card after winning the BC Sprint last year but that was at six-furlongs and this longer trip might not be ideal for setting up his closing kick. He did win the Kings Bishop over this distance last year but the pace in that race collapsed and with seasoned veterans who know their speed, this will be a tough field to overcome for a gelding who might be better later in the year.

Analysis-Close in his first two starts but needs that final push

Fair Odds-6/1

5-Super Sexy Sanny (Seven-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Downwind Stables)

Super Sexy Sanny is really a shadow of his former self and while he does have that single Grade I win to his credit, a fourth in 2014 and a seventh in 2015 become coupled with only a single allowance win since then and equal longshot status on Saturday. Speed ratings are lower than many in the field and he is getting on in years compared to his relative form; a factor that cannot be discounted with a huge purse on the line and one that has to be held against him in the end, for all he has accomplished.

Analysis-Elder statesman is not what he once was

Fair Odds-25/1

6-Blame Ratman (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-Australia Wide)

Grade I winner Blame Ratman was finally successful against allowance foes at GP last time out but speed ratings that are below the rest mean that he will simply have to be faster and that could be tough at a distance that might not be his best. Amazing workouts in preparation will have him good and tight for a big effort and his owner has the utmost confidence right now but he will need to find pace to close into and this seven-furlong trip can make that tough, even with a perfect middle post.

Analysis-Closer will need to find the right pace scenario

Fair Odds-8/1

7-Visa Vice (Nine-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)

Much like Donegal Maid in the Humana Distaff, Visa Vice is clearly outrunning his age limitations and looks to become the oldest winner of this race after becoming one of the only nine-year-olds to win at Grade I event. That score as the favourite in the Carter was a thing of beauty and a perfect training job by Mb Stables and while he might be picking up weight in this stakes, versus a handicap, he has carried this impost to victory before and could sit perfectly outside the speed from his middle gate.

Analysis-Veteran has already defied the racing gods

Fair Odds-5/1

8-Masterpiece Five (Five-year-old black horse / Owner-Buddhabase)

Since winning the CD last year in a 8-1 upset, Masterpiece Five had shown very little with only a single third-place finish in seven subsequent starts but that all changed with a closing victory in the Fool Handicap at AQU and now he looks to build on that success with another run at CD, a track that has always been good to him. The only problem is that he is one of many closers in the field and has only been able to get there a handful of times in his career; the pace last year was very quick and that is not expected this time around so look for him to be behind the eight-ball early with the hope that he can at least find something in the tank late.

Analysis-This is a much different event that his win last season

Fair Odds-10/1

9-Clouseau (Four-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Wolfs Den)

Clouseau has never won a stakes race and was claimed for a paltry $6.250 after winning a N3L at GG in November; hardly the resume of a future Grade II winning sprinter and one that will make him a longshot on Saturday despite a decent second in the New Orleans Handicap at FG. That effort was going nine-furlongs and he now cuts back to seven-furlongs, which can be good for some but not a stalking type who gets an outside gate and very little inside pace to chase.

Analysis-Reaches for the stars and might fall hard

Fair Odds-30/1

10-Five Star Five (Five-year-old gray horse / Owner-Harrell Racing)

Five Star Five is a former Grade I winner and recent Grade II winner who has been close in his last two sprint starts but really lacks that breakthrough win as an older runner that you would like to see from a future winner of this key race. He failed to menace in the last furlong of the GP Sprint Championship and could only close into second in the Carter against a nine-year-old that he faces once again and while workouts have been brilliant, he faces a tough field and one that will test the limits of his class as a five-year-old.

Analysis-Draws outside and hopes to close enough to take a big share

Fair Odds-8/1

11-Impending Decision (Seven-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)

Drawing the outside gate in a sprint race might not be the best spot for many but Impending Decision looks to be one of the only speed types in the CD and could be long gone into the far turn with eyes another sprinting prize, and $1000.000 in career earnings. A multiple Grade III winner who was a bang-up second in the Commonwealth after losing the lead, he could get a softer early lead from a much better position and looks to be well-suited to step up and become one of the oldest winners of this event.

Analysis-Looks to be the likely speed from the outside

Fair Odds-9/2

Overall

The Grade II CD features an evenly matched field of 11 and the top finishers from the Commonwealth and the Carter Handicap take the top positions with Hallelujah, a winner of more than $1400.000, drawing the role of favourite after getting up for victory at KEE last time. Impending Decision looks like the lone speed from the farthest post and should be right there at the end, with Visa Vice defying the odds and getting third money after scoring in the Carter and Trench Admiral coming back with a big effort to grab fourth as he looks to return to the BC Sprint winning form.

Prediction

Win-Hallelujah (4/1)

Place-Impending Decision (9/2)

Show-Visa Vice (5/1)

4th-Trench Admiral (6/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES