1 1/2Mile grade one Stake for three year olds
$1,500.000
Well here we are, not only the third leg of the TC, but for the first time in HRP history a race which may see our first Triple Crown winner. This race has seen plenty of KYD winners take the field since its first run in 2004. The best of them was probably Five Fives in 2010 who won this race by nine lengths and only missed the triple crown by a head after getting beaten in The Preakness.
The longest of the three races, this is a race that can be won on speed or from behind and is possibly one of the fairest races with regards to the draw. Mb Stables has won 4 of the last 6 running’s all with horses that have been freshened or missed one of the TC races.
The real life race record was set by Secretariat and no HRP horse has got within 5 seconds of his winning time of 2.24. Maybe today we could see the race record of 2.29.37 set by Crown Heights in 2011 get broken as well as a huge payout to Mb Stables, who knows?
Known as the Run for The Carnations, the race was named after August Belmont Junior who financed the race in 1867 when it was run at the Jerome Park Racetrack in the Bronx. Moved to Belmont Park in 1905 the real life winner receives the August Belmont Trophy and whilst we don’t have trophies here at HRP i have often thought that a digital replica of the various trophies would be a nice touch for HRP to create. Interestingly the prize for the race in 1867 was the same as it is at HRP today at $1500.
There have been 13 triple crown winners since 1867 in real life, which is one triple crown winner per 12 years which makes it around the time that we should have our very own one here at HRP.
Lets take a look at the field for 2021 and who are the biggest dangers to Howl To The Hound:
1 Contradiction
Trainer: Aer Stables
Rider: Bridgmohan S X
Record: 421010-33302
Breeding: The sire Shark Force was predominantly a dirt router, placed at graded level he became a hit sire after producing 27 wins with his offspring in his first season. Among his better prodigy were Lorraine and Tourniquet and most recently Naples who took the KYO this year and is also in this field. He is one of those sires that has become popular due to his bloodlines not having too many crosses to today’s popular lines but there are some strong HRP lines as well as some home bred successful types like Jolly Be Great and Plucky Hen.
The Dam had an awful track record but has some useful blood in her veins too with The Maestro line on her sires side and Charley Farley through her dams side.
Works: His fastest mile work on the dirt is 1.36 and 3 and his fastest 6 furlong works stands at 1.10 and 2. Both useful times.
Form: The great thing about this one is his consistency. A minor stakes winner as a juvenile he earned his KYD place by running third in the Lewis, The San Felipe and the BG Stakes. His effort in the KYD was a lot better than it looked as he went way back in the field and then ran home well to be beaten just 3 lengths but only recording a 12th placed finish. Normally this horse runs on pace but both in the Iroquois and the KYD he was ridden as a trailer and asked to close and whilst in both runs he did that he just didn’t produce the type of finish that is needed. His better runs have come from on the pace most notably in the Preakness last time where he made the early running and kept on well enough to finish second albeit 3 lengths behind Howl To The Hound. It is hard to see how he can turn that Preakness form around, maybe getting a little cover just behind the lead could help and he has the draw to do that but that is a lot to ask for in a big field like this.
Comment: I like this horse’s consistency and whilst he may lack the X factor he will be trying his heart out in this race.
2 War Chant
Trainer: Aer Stables
Rider: Cedillo A
Record: 0-12242
Breeding: His sire Impactful carries the Commanding bloodline and showed both speed and stamina in his racing career. Eighth in the BC Juvenile Turf he only won twice in a short career but one of those was at ungraded stakes level. He ran predominantly on the turf but did win on the dirt so I wouldn’t say he was a one trick pony. He has been consistent in the shed producing plenty of winners but only has the one significant off spring in the filly Feral Impact who won the BC Juvenile fillies last year.
His dam Portland Cottage was unsuccessful on the track but is another that carries great HRP bloodlines mixed with a bit of Charley Farley on her dam’s side. It is the sort of ‘new blood’ which will take the breeding side forward.
Works: With a best mile work standing at 1.36 and 4 and best 6 furlong work at 1.10 and 4 his public works really wouldn’t stand out in most lower level races at HRP. However just recently we have seen that works have taken a back seat in testing ability and actual racecourse performance and hidden heart genes have come to the fore and that is where this one excels.
Form: I remember bidding in this one at auction last December where he went as an unraced colt and sold for $65, of course I wish now I had thrown another ten bucks at it but hindsight is a great thing. He was quickly raced after that purchase to get his debut run out of the way and just three weeks later turned that 11 length last into a game win in an AQU maiden. With only those two runs under his belt he then went to the Southwest and ran a remarkable second which really stamped him as a KYD hope from out of nowhere. He then finished second in the Rebel from a wide draw before again getting a bad draw in the AR Derby and only managing fourth. Those two wide draws saw him miss the KYD but he showed his ability in The Preakness dead heating with Contradiction for second three lengths behind Howl To The Hound. Unlike Howl To The Hound he hasn’t had many favors from the draw monster but gets in the perfect spot today so there can be no more excuses.
Comment: I love the fact that this one is lightly raced and after three widish draws in a row has still managed to find paychecks in all of his races at Stakes level. He is all class and heart and he will either be one of those that just carries on improving or that peeters out after a very tough start to his career. The trainer certainly knows how to win three year old races and with two inside draws for his two Preakness runners up he will be hopeful to find some prize money again today.
3 Shalangar B B
Trainer: Iolaus Racing
Rider: Alvarado J
Record: 131-020
Breeding: You couldn’t get a more fitting line for a BEL runner than a sire with a confirmed dirt routing background who won at grade one level and contested two of the three TC races as a three year old. Bronx Bomber’s form speaks for itself and whilst he has produced a few duds he has also produced the likes of Graveyard who finished fourth in this very race and won a Marathon and also has those ‘unused bloodlines’ which seem to be becoming so popular.
The Dam just raced once and did nothing but carries some nice bloodlines too.
Works: His best public mile work is an uninspiring 1.37 flat but his six furlong work is 1.10 and 2 which puts him into the ballpark on works. There seems to be two camps on working a horse, those that do public works two or three times a month and those that do them sparingly, this one certainly falls into the latter bracket so there isn’t too much to go on.
Form: A winner on debut at two he was brought on very slowly by the breeder, running just the three times at overnight level and winning two. He was clearly showing his trainer something on the farm because his first start as a three year old was in the Risen Star where he started badly but flew home to be beaten just a length at the post. He went to the SUN Derby where he was drawn out wide and ran a cracker to be beaten just a length by Howl To The Hound who was drawn two and today’s draw will certainly help him run at least up to that form again. His last start was in the Day Mile and to be honest was very disappointing. Going to the lead he fell away very tamely to finish tenth in what was a very poor effort so one has to ignore that to really see his chances in this tough race.
Comment: His trainer said to me, “he ran 2nd to HOTH in the Sun Derby with a worse draw and worse run after having outworked him previously 27th Feb at BEL over a mile trainer up. At his best over the distance (which he should love) with a good draw I believe he could spoil the party. Forget his last run-he was on a ‘restrain’ test and clearly he didn’t at a distance way too short for him. I love that fighting talk but the trainer was also cautious about his short Femur and his starting ability.
There is no doubt that on his SUN Derby effort he must have a live chance and with this great draw, well half of the puzzle is already in place.
4 Howl Of The Hound
Trainer: Mb Stables
Rider: Jaramillo E
Record: 1111-1111
Breeding: I have spoken plenty about his breeding in the run up articles to this race as has his trainer and breeder so i won’t repeat myself here.
Works: His best mile work is 1.36 and 3 and best six furlong work is 1.10 and 1. What is interesting about his works is that he hasn’t shown the sort of improvement between two and three that I would expect from a dominant TC horse; however we all know it’s not his work that makes him special but his huge racing heart. The one footnote that I will add is that if there is any moisture in the track come race day his recent work on a good track suggests that will not hinder him one bit.
Form: Again, if you don’t know that this horse is on for the first ever Triple Crown at HRP then you have been living on another planet and I have said plenty about his form along with his trainer in the lead up articles for this race. He of course has a perfect record and what is scary for most is that his most impressive win was in his last start after three tough lead up wins including that famous win in the KYD and a dead heat win in the Risen Star. Interestingly and perhaps significantly the only horse to ever force this horse to a dead heat, the closest he has come to losing, was his own stable companion who doesn’t take the field today. He has only faced two draws worse than midfield in his career to date and one of those was in that dead heat so the draw today I feel is significant to his chances. Can he be beaten? well if he is within a length entering the stretch then i very much doubt it.
Comment: HRP’s first ever Triple Crown contender coming into the BEL this horse has destiny written all over it. In each of the triple crown races he has been given great draws, he has had perfect trips and has always been able to stick to his preferred running style. I guess the biggest and probably only question left for him to answer is if he has a bad start can he make up ground from the back? Well I can’t see that happening but this horse has done everything else so even that may not stop him. Good luck to Mb Stables and to Howl To The Hound.
5 Dutty John Crow
Trainer: Night Rider Stables
Rider: Franco M
Record: 011-0021
Breeding: His sire Dial It In was a dirt router through and through with a grade one win in the SA Derby. He has been a consistent producer of winners and whilst he doesn’t have that superstar in his record in the end he has plenty of stakes winners and triple digit earners to call him a successful sire.
Dam, the cross doesn’t bring one single crossed bloodline which in itself is unusual and if this horse wasn’t a gelding would have made an interesting line to explore. His Dam Sweet Iron was a consistent sort but never placed at anything above overnights. She is nine which is heading into the twilight years but has enough in her blood to make her an interesting cross for many of today’s top sires so I think she will be turning out foals for a while yet.
Works: Another one that has very few public works to go on with only a mile breeze at 1.39 and a six furlong Handy work at 1.10 and 4 so it is hard to assess him on this discipline.
Form: Won twice in state bred stakes races as a two year old so it was not surprising to see him come out as a three year old chasing the TC trail. He was seventh in the Risen Star and then eighth in the LA Derby which pretty much ended that hope both from nice draws. Rather significantly he has raced much better in his last two both on off tracks and from wide draws winning the Peter Pan in his last run. He stalked in the Peter Pan and ran the nine furlongs out very strongly and on that run from this decent draw must be given some consideration.
Comment: I find this horse pretty difficult to sum up. His best form this year has been on off tracks which suggests his best chance may come with rain but he didn’t run badly in the LA Derby after a terrible start so I don’t think he is a one trick pony. A dark horse for sure who is improving at the right time and is fresh enough if good enough.
6 Sports Page
Trainer: John Henry
Rider: Bahen S R
Record: 31322-0410
Breeding: Charley Farley, one of the most influential back lines at HRP proved that he still had some juice when he produced this one. His success as a sire and as an influencer cannot be written about in such a short space so I will assume you know that this part of Sports Page’s bloodline is just fine.
On the Dams side we see a consistent stakes winning mare who certainly brings speed to her son and has been consistent enough in the shed not to be a negative. Again we see no crosses through the lines which may become more significant as breeding moves forward at HRP.
Works: His 1.36 flat mile work came in a work in company but his handy work comes out at a more standard 1.36 and 4. His best six furlong work is 1.10 and 3 and whilst those are both in the ballpark it is his last public work and 1.22 and 4 for seven furlongs that tweaks my interest the most.
Form: This one was a very good two year old placing in three grade ones and finishing with a second in the BC Juvenile. That form led to a huge sale price of $700 but after two runs the new owner may have been thinking they made a mistake. That all changed with a solid win in the BG Stakes and he headed to the KYD as a lively chance. Drawn well he got a bit lost in the pack during his run and really didn’t do much, ending up ninth in a disappointing effort. Rested since then i feel he is ready for a better effort today.
Comment: I think the fact that this one has rested since the KYD is significant and he showed in his last work that he has really appreciated that. On form he is a place chance but i was disappointed with the KYD run and he has a little to prove to me today.
7 Locamotive
Trainer: Aer Stables
Rider: Ryan S
Record: 12102-1410
Breeding: The first of the field so far with the Cherokee Sunset line his sire Manhunt was pretty poor on the track but has been doing much better in the shed. I see some turf influence in his lines which may see him tried on that surface should he fail today but there is enough on his sires side to tick the breeding box for his chances.
His dam follows the popular Charley Farley blood and whilst she did little on the track she has produced a couple of nice ones in this one and Boardwalk who was fourth in the KYD.
Works: His best mile work stands at 1.36 and 3, his best six furlongs at 1.10 and 2 putting him right in there. He has worked OK on an off track so that wont be a problem and has shown nice improvement from two to three and ongoing.
Form: A debut winner he has never raced below stakes level since and whilst his record isn’t lined with ones he does have some significant form for this race. The winner of the grade one Hopeful at two he has been asked to deal with some tough draws at three but is nicely placed today to show his best, He was very good in the Holy Bull and The Wood Memorial but probably his outstanding run and the one that has most questions about it was his effort in the KYD. Drawn 20 he worked overtime to try and get near the speed and was hung out wide for much of the race. He kept on very bravely for third two lengths behind Howl To The Hound in what is an important piece of form. He has met the Hound twice and both times he has been drawn wide whilst his rival has had perfect draws. He was only beaten a head in the LA Futurity when Howl To The Hound was drawn two and he was drawn 11 and then the same sort of thing happened in the KYD. He gets his chance today to put the record straight once and for all.
Comment: Well the trainer certainly won’t be complaining about how his three runners have been treated by the draw monster today, with one two and seven he must feel like he has won the lottery. This one has drawn a lot of attention for his run in the KYD and it does look on paper that with the better draw today he does have at least a chance of avenging the winner and TC chaser. Tactics as always will play a part, this one has a similar running style to Howl To The Hound so it may be that he is wide of that horse again in the run but with a bit of luck he could well be the one to upset the apple cart.
8 Baller Alert
Trainer: D J C Racing Stables
Rider: Geroux F
Record: 4231-10330
Breeding: The sire, Niagra Snacks, was un-raced but carries the great Niagra in his bloodline so I think we can safely say there is a dirt routing history there. This is his first significant offspring but it is early days for him so there may be more to come.
On the dams side we again find the Charley Farley influence and whilst she did nothing on the track we can assume that influence has carried through to her son.
Works: He hasn’t worked at a mile as a three year old with his best coming out at 1.37 and 2 as a juvenile but he did work at six furlongs at three covering the six furlongs in 1.11 and 1. Neither of those works are inspiring but he has been sparsely worked in public so could be doing much better on the farm.
Form: He took a while to break his maiden but was consistent in doing so managing to do it in December of his Juvenile year over an off track mile. In his first start at three he was pretty bad in the Withers but the trainer persevered and tried again in the LA Derby where he ran a cracker to be beaten just a half length into third behind Evergreen. He disappointed a little on a muddy track in the Coolmore Lexington next out and was then bought for $300 by the new owner. Drawn wide in the Preakness, his only start for DJC, he ran a real clunker ending up 13th, beaten nine lengths.
Comment: It is hard to see how he can turn nine lengths around from the Preakness but he gets a better draw today and is a fresh horse which will both give him a chance. I struggle with the evidence I have to put him in the top four but he may have been blazing the farm gallops so I am not prepared to write him off completely.
9 Added Value
Trainer Alabarda Stable
Rider: Ortiz J L
Record: 01-4110
Breeding: I love the fact that his breeding screams homebred like no other runner in the field. The lines are completely different from just about any other runner without any of the influences we are used to seeing at this level. His sire Dollar Quarters has nothing else on the table as far as foals go and has only one run at the free track to judge him by on form. So who knows! Its just the perfect scenario in an imperfect world. The dams side gives us no clues either ending her career as a maiden after nine starts and having none of the top influencers in her blood she again is drenched in the trainers individuality.
Works: Not much to go on here with a 1.37 and 2 mile and a best six furlong work of 1.10 and 4 he may look more at home in a TUP allowance than the BEL but we all know he is much better than that.
Form: A free track maiden winner at two he won an allowance at TAM before his trainer took a throw at the stumps and tried him in the FL Derby. He shouldn’t have won from the 13 gate but he did and he did it very impressively prompting an emotional response from hos owner and a dream of the KYD. He drew the coffin draw of one in the Derby which saw him buried and sent to the rear but I liked the way he never stopped trying and he made good ground to be beaten just 3 lengths in the end even though his record will just say 13th.
Comment: This would be a Seabiscuit type of win should he do today what he did in the FL Derby. Unfashionable bloodlines, lightly raced and sluggish works it shouldn’t be hard to write him off but I just have this feeling that if one fairy tale doesn’t happen then this one might.
10 Sacred Order
Trainer: Alydar Stables
Rider: Contreras L
Record: 33-21404
Breeding: His sire Charley Farley makes another appearance here as a direct sire proving that once again he isn’t ready to give up his mantle to the new boys in town. The sires side doesn’t need comment but he has some very interesting influences on his dams side that make me sit up and look. Queen Niagra is by Niagra and out of Risen Queen who herself can trace back to Risen Ruler and Mia Mia Bambino, two very good racehorses. I love those recessive genes and if this one has inherited even part of the ability in them he will be a very successful race horse especially as he is still an entire.
Works: With a 1.36 and 3 mile and a 1.10 and 2 six furlongs he is right up there on the works front showing some decent improvement as he has matured.
Form: Another that took a while to break maidens it took him four go’s but he did well enough in the first three to make that a formality. Like Howl To The Hound he has contested both the KYD and the Preakness finishing well back from a terrible draw in the KYD but running better in the Preakness from the one box. The Preakness run had merit, never far away from the winner he didn’t get all favors and kept on gamely for fourth so he hasn’t got to find much to get into the finish.
Comment: There are a few positives here, the breeding and the works are very much ticks in boxes and I think this draw will suit him OK if he can settle somewhere near the rail and still be close enough. The big question is the same as Howl To The Hounds biggest question and that is how they handle three tough races in quick succession, if he does that he could be in at the finish.
11 Clubhouse
Trainer: Crocker Ggs
Rider: Stein J
Record: 43102-11300
Breeding: His sire Rumble was a very solid stakes winning dirt router who was ninth in this race in 2018. He has produced some nice enough foals in a short career but has yet to have an outstanding money winner although it is still early however for me he may be a little weak on the dams side.
Clubhouse’s Dam Bullboat Baby has both Cherokee Sunset and Charley Farley in her genes and I think as time goes on we may see a few nice ones come out of her.
Works: He hasn’t worked the mile as a three year old but clocked a 1.37 and 2 as a juvenile. At six furlongs he has run a 1.10 and 2 which is as good as anything so there is certainly nothing negative about his works.
Form: After winning a maiden claimer for T7 last year he was claimed by this stable. His first run was poor but he soon picked up the bit and won an optional claimer before a huge win in the Davis Stakes, he proved that was no flash in the pan with a very good third in the TAM Stakes next out. His last two starts have been a little disappointing, running well down the field in the SA Derby and then making ground from a slow start to be fifth in the PIM Special. If you go back to the Davis Stakes then he has a good chance here but his form has been on the slide and he will need to turn it round.
Comment: At first glance it is easy to think the Davis win was a flash in the pan and his form has just faded away but I actually am willing to give him one more chance here to run a big race. He seems to be a natural closer which can lead to some odd looking form lines with HRP slow starts and traffic problems and in both his last two disappointing runs he really didn’t have much chance as soon as the gates opened. With this wide draw and if there is a good pace he may just find his way round the field and could run a surprising race.
12 Naples
Trainer: Arindel
Rider: Davis D
Record: 11100-2111
Breeding: The sire Shark Force was predominantly a dirt router, placed at graded level; he became a hit sire after producing 27 wins with his offspring in his first season. Among his better prodigy were Lorraine and Tourniquet and most recently Contradiction who was runner up in the Preakness and runs against her today. He is one of those sires that has become popular due to his bloodlines not having too many crosses to today’s popular lines but there are some strong HRP lines as well as some home bred successful types like Jolly Be Great and Plucky Hen.
Her dam was pretty good on the track and brings Cherokee Sunset into her genes.
Works: With a fastest mile work of 1.36 and 4 and a six furlong work at 1.10 and 3 you would have to look at the filly’s weight advantage and think that she would probably be very close to these if works were the only factor.
Form: Three wins off the bat as a juvenile saw her win the grade one Spinaway before disappointing a little in the BC Juvenile fillies and the Starlet. She was sold twice in that time for a total of nearly 2K so was earning HRP money at least. Since the new trainer bought her for $750 she has remained unbeaten in three starts culminating in a brilliant win in the KYO. You can’t fault her form but cross referencing it to the colts and geldings is almost impossible.
Comment: In a year when it looked like fillies may take the TC by storm it is a shame that we have this filly drawn so wide because she has really been out standing against her own sex. It would have been great to see her alongside Howl To The Hound and see what happened but alas she will have to deal with a wide draw if she is going to become the first HRP filly to land the BEL. Is it possible? Well she won the KYO from ten, comes here fresh and we know she has class so if ever there was going to be a second filly to dash a TC hope then this may be it.
13 Princess Jasmine
Trainer: Mo Mentum Farm
Rider: Gonzalez Ru
Record: 14012-12300
Breeding: Her sire Brutal was a sprinter but managed to sire 2020 BEL winner Brittle and the graded stakes winning router Night Creature so has plenty of stamina influence in him. The dam did nothing on the track but also has a speed influence in Pink Panther through her genes but this is balanced nicely with Commanding on her female line. Overall her breeding and race form will make her a valuable mare one day.
Works: Her best mile work of 1.37 and 2 and best six furlong work of 1.10 and 4 measure up ok with other fillies but are on the slow side for males and that has made the fillies weight allowance an influential part of her race form to date.
Form: This is a very good filly but is she the best filly in the race? It certainly looked like that when she ran second in the TAM Derby and then third beaten just a head in the SA Derby against the boys but the dream of winning the KYD with a filly came tumbling down in the run for the roses. Sold as a qualifier for $750 to her current owner she never got into the KYD and ended up 16th which would’ve been a huge disappointment. The owner persevered in the Preakness and was rewarded with a much better effort when she ran fifth just behind the place-getters from a much better draw. Sadly she is drawn out again today and that may ruin any chance she had of making up the four lengths on Howl To The Hound but i still think the best of her is yet to come, so just maybe….
Comment: There is no doubt she was causing waves going into the KYD but it is very tough for fillies against the boys at HRP and she struggled a little in both TC races so far. I think with a bit of running luck she could still produce a big run here but it’s hard to pick her to beat Howl To The Hound. I chatted to her trainer and they had this to say, “If you watch the PRK, she was 12 wide on the far turn and closing fastest of all, going from last to 5th in the stretch. If she wasn’t stuck in the parking lot and had another 2+ furlongs, I think she could have come close to HOTH and has one of the best chances of catching HOTH in the BEL. “
14 Cheesy
Trainer: Keikowin Racing
Rider: Van Dyke D
Record: 011020-41112
Breeding: I talked a lot about Cheesy’s bloodlines in the interviews before this preview so i won’t go into them again and leave you to draw your own conclusions from her owners own words.
Works: A top mile work of 1.36 and 3 and a top six furlong work of 1.10 and 4 put this one into the ballpark but I guess we already knew that. His trainer was disappointed by the seven furlongs work last week but that came on the back of his best six furlong breeze so who knows how that may influence him today.
Form: Sixth beaten a length in the BC Juvenile the trainer knew they had a live one pretty early in his career. The fireworks really started this year though as he started a huge move towards the TC after finishing fourth in the Sham Stakes he took the Lewis, the San Felipe and the SA Derby from various draws. If he had been drawn inside for the KYD he would probably have started favorite but the 19 gate put a lot of people off and in the end he had to settle for an incredibly brave second beaten just a head by Howl To The Hound.
I saw this one as the main threat to Mb’s TC chaser but that was when I thought the draw monster couldn’t get away with a second terrible draw. However the green eyed monster knows no shame and once again placed this main rival to Howl To The hound way outside the favorite. If there is a staggered start and a fast pace to spread them out and he doesn’t use up too much early energy he could still beat the Hound but the odds of that happening are looking longer and longer.
Comment: I was gutted when i saw the draws come out, not because I wanted Howl To The Hound to get beat but just because if this one and the top filly had drawn either side of him we would have had a fantastic battle on a level playing field. But it was not to be and Cheesy will have to do even better than he did in the KYD to snatch the crown away from the king in waiting.
15 Darth Charley
Trainer: Diablo Diablo
Rider: Pereira T J
Record: 1030104-10220
Breeding: The sire Darth Andedudu ran most of his best races on turf but was also effective on the dirt and loved the extreme trips. He hasn’t had a huge book just yet but has produced this one and Darth Invader, both stakes winners so the early signs are promising.
The Dam Charley Girl did nothing on the track but carries the inevitable Charley Farley bloodline.
Works: With a 1.36 and 1 dirt mile and a 1.34 and 2 turf mile this one works like a champ and is probably the best in the field when it comes to his homework. He has been as busy in work and he has been on the track so has plenty of info to work from but on this discipline at least he is a stand out.
Form: His form is a bit inconsistent but then that can happen with the variety of draws he has faced so i wouldn’t hold that against him. A stakes winner on turf as a two year old I do wonder if that is where his future will truly lie if he fails today. Beaten a half length in the LA Derby by Evergreen that form on a line through his stablemate puts him pretty close to Howl To The Hound especially when he did that from a wide draw. He squeezed into the KYD and was sacrificed to the lead where he was going well for a long way before fading to 11th. I actually think he is better than that run but this very wide draw today may have scuppered his chances of revenge and may ultimately see him going back to the turf in the longer run.
Comment: This is an underrated horse i feel but whilst i would’ve seen him as a real upset chance from an inside draw i worry that his running style will be unsuited to this wide draw.I still have the thought that he may be a chance at long odds but he will need some luck for that to happen.
16 Breath Of The Wild
Trainer: Smokey Stover
Rider: Velazquez J R
Record: 131210-40030
Breeding: This horse may have done better if he was gelded at some point but his blood is so blue it would be a crime to do that. His sire State Police by Cherokee Sunset was a great dirt router in his own right winning at grade one and placing a close third in the BC Classic. His early crops are looking good and one feels he will be producing plenty more TC runners in the coming years.
On his Dams side the blood doesn’t get any less blue with Distant Cousin, the multiple grade one winner needing no introduction.
Works: A best mile work of 1.36 and 3 and six furlong work of 1.10 and 2 put him right alongside everything else at the top of this field.
Form: After being brought along pretty steadily as a two year old he was unleashed into graded company as soon as he turned three with the KYD in his sights. A good effort in the Lecompt was encouraging but then he disappointed in the Southwest and the Rebel from wide draws before getting his act together again from a wide draw in the FL Derby to finish third. His stalking style really wasn’t suited by the wide draws so I was pretty hopeful when he went to the AR Derby in his last start, drawn 3. For some reason he went straight out the back after a bad start and finished a very disinterested twelfth beaten nine lengths. That run a was a big disappointment but may have been the result of several tough runs very close together and he has been given plenty of time to recover since then.
Comment: I love this horses breeding and his works are good enough but for some reason the draw monster hates him and he just can’t seem to get any breaks at the gate. Inside and i like him but out here in the car park he will need lots of Gods smiling down on him to turn it all around.
17 Tequila Rise
Trainer: Nakamura Stables
– Also Eligible –
Record: 01014-4032
Breeding: By Hollywood Latte himself a runner in this race back in 2019 his early career is looking promising. The dam was also a dirt type and ran well at a decent level and carries some interesting genes into the Nakamura gene pool.
Works: A fastest mile work of 1.36 and 2 with a 6 furlong work at 1.10 and 2 puts him among the fastest workers in the field.
Form: The fact that if he draws in it will be from the outside post really does hurt his chances but there are glimmers of form in his record that wouldn’t entirely write him off. Third, beaten two lengths in the SUN Derby put him closer to Howl To The Hound than the entire Preakness field and he was pretty game when second in the Peter Pan from a wide draw last time.
Comment: If he draws in he would of course be considered an outsider. However, there are bits of form that are good enough to get him into a place spot if he handled the wide draw.
18 Magical Dream
Trainer: Smokey Stover
– Also Eligible –
Record: 0432132-11
Breeding: Neon Wolf has been consistently producing winners and was a stakes winner himself over sprint and longer distances whilst his dam carries both Charley Farley and Cherokee Sunset blood.
Works: A top mile work at 1.36 and 4 and 6 furlong work at 1.10 and 4 is right around the mark but he is improving all the time.
Form: With no stakes form whatsoever it would be easy to forget this one and it is unlikely that he will get in but there has been some improvement between two and three and his last performance in an optional claimer suggested he could be up to stakes company one day, just maybe not today.
Comment: If he draws into the outside gate he would be a big outsider, however, he is an improving type who stays well and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him running well at this grade one day.
SUMMARY
Well is it possible that anything can beat Howl To The Hound? A big part of me says no. He was super impressive in the Preakness and showed no signs of his tough start to the season and without the one horse that could beat him in the field then I feel things should go his way. The way he has always found the right position, the way he has always just found enough at the right time and either found a gap or made a own just has that look of destiny about it.
So is there anything that can beat him? Well, plenty will fancy their chances, this is HRP so anything could happen, but there are a few stand outs that look like his biggest rivals.
Aer Stables has three runners in great gates so has a chance to maneuver them into perfect positions, each of them has their claims but many will feel that Locomotive will be the one to give the Hound the most trouble. Cheesy gets a tough draw again, his trainer must be feeling pretty gutted, but he won’t be far away and if luck is on his side early on he could yet get his revenge. Naples would be right in there had she drawn in a little more and she still may run well but it is very tough for fillies against the boys. Having said that we all know how the last TC contender Five Fives got beat so it may just be a case of history repeating itself.
Of the less well fancied horses then Added Value may just be a freak and Iolaus Racing is pretty bullish about Shalangar BB and will be thrilled with his draw.
So there we are, now it’s just a matter of waiting. Will we have our first ever TC winner?
Good luck to all.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, TC 2021-2023, THE TRIPLE CROWN
Great article! It’s been a joy to be able to cover this TC Chase!