Im Too Confident Wants to Back Up Confidence in Razorback

The Razorback Handicap (Grade 3)- $300.000 Purse
OP- For Four Year Olds and Upward
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt
March 19, 2016

A field of six is set to go in this Saturday’s 11th edition of The Razorback Handicap from OP.   The $300.000 on the line represents a new high for the stake, increased by $50.000 from last year’s running, and that amount is twice as much from when the great Columbia River won the inaugural race in 2006.  There have been some other very high earners that have won the race as well, such as Jesse James in 2012 and Blazing Angel in 2014.  Another great past winner is Pip Boy, and while he is known more the great foals he has produced, he won a few graded races over the course of his career as well.   No trainer has won the race more then once, but two jockeys have won the race twice: T J Thompson and G W Corbett.   Both are at OP still, but neither have a mount as the best of the jockey colony can now head to this race.  It has not always been that way, as this race has not always been held on the same day as the Rebel, which is the days feature.    Here is the field for the race.

#1- Royal Redeemer (Maxmillion Farm, ridden by E Trujillo)- It is hard to believe that this Risen Ruler colt still only has a maiden win to his credit in fifteen starts.  That is because he has been running in the graded ranks for some time now, and has been able to hit the board.  Winning again, however, has simply been elusive.  On Halloween, while you were watching the BC, Royal Redeemer nearly picked up a win in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler Handicap at BEL, but missed in a close photo, and finished second there.  He was also just a length shy from winning the Grade 3 Gallant Bob Stakes.   Maybe this will be his time.  He likes to come from off the pace, and it looks like there is a lot of speed in this race.

#2- Party In The Usa (Mb Stables, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- Late in November, Mb Stables added Party In The Usa to his powerful arsenal via a $40.000 claim from Riggins Racing.   He had shown potential while running for Riggins, but Mb Stables has been able to get a little more out of him, as The Party has made it to the winners circle in each of his two races with his current trainer.   The most recent race was the ungraded $100.000 Haynesfield at AQU, which is run at the same distance that we will see today.   It appears to have been a tactical adjustment made by Mb, as this former deep closer has now been seen running on the lead, and he has not relinquished it in either one.  He may have some company up pushing him hard this time, though.

#3- Accidental Notice (Joseph Racing, ridden by K J Desormeaux)- Going back two races, Accidental Notice just missed out in a photo finish in the Grade 2 Autumn Stakes at WO, a race run at today’s distance. That was his graded stake debut, and the effort earned him a 101 SRF on the day.  However, there did not seem to be any momentum generated after that race, as he then ended up on the shelf for nearly 90 days before hitting the track again.  He returned in late January, and defeated two others in a SA open allowance in his last win.   There’s every reason to like Accidental Notice, and he may be up there with Party In The Usa early, but you have to wonder why he never moved forward after the Autumn.  Hopefully, that can happen here.

#4- Milestone (Mcl Stables, ridden by R A Baze)- The trainer searches for their first career graded stakes win, and the name would be fitting to accomplish that for them.  Milestone is a lightly raced seven year old, who after racing two times as a two year old, only had one start as a three year old.  It took him a little while to show the talent he has recently been displaying.  Mcl Stables picked him up in July of last year via a $7.500 claim, and since then he’s regularly been at the track and showing his skill.   The progression began mildly, with an appearance in the $15.000 Mt Hood Handicap at PM, and he would win the race.  After trying the Grade 3 Mr Prospector, the trainer stretched him out to a mile for the Grade 3 Hooper, and he raced well, finishing third in a nine horse field. He was narrowly edged out for 2nd by Im Too Confident in that race.  This horse is working very well, and has it in him to finally erase that zero in the graded stake win column for his trainer.

#5- Im Too Confident (Mb Stables, ridden by P Lopez)-   The second of two entries that the trainer has in this race, but this one seems to be the stronger threat to win the race.  Im Too Confident has had a very good career, winning over $1,500.000, but you wonder a little if the best is still yet too come with him.  To this point, the accolades are great, starting as a two year old with a win in the Grade 3 DED Jackpot, before eventually taking a big Derby Prep race, the Grade 1 BG Stakes at KEE, in April.   However, his three year old campaign slowed down, being a non-factor in some of the biggest races one can run in, excluding a 4th place run in the BEL.  His last two races show that he might be getting better with age, with back to back 98 SRF figures earned.  He then worked very impressively at a mile at AQU earlier this month.    Im Too Confident should be confident here, he is the class of the field.  It will be interesting to see what this season holds for him.

#6- Sqawilther (Australia Wide, ridden by M Mena)- This four year old Pink Panther colt has won five of thirteen races, and has only failed to hit the board three times over the course of his career.   Three of his last five races have ended up with an appearance in the winners circle, although those have been in optional claimers.  His lone graded attempt was a big one, trying the Grade 1 Kings Bishop at beautiful Saratoga Race Course, where he admirably closed, but still could only finish 6th in a twelve horse field.   Most recently, he was second in an open allowance at SA, beaten only by Phelps, so there is no shame at all in not winning the one.  The SRF figures shown for that race seem a little low, so don’t be concerned by the 92.   He’ll be a threat, and his running style could be perfect for this race.

Prediction: 5-4-6-1

 

— NS



Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES