The Rebel (Grade 2) (KYD)- $900.000 Purse
OP- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt
March 19, 2016
The race for KYD points is hitting full speed now. Pretty soon, we will be hitting the races that reward 100 points for the winner. The Rebel is a 50 point race, and for those who fail to get points here, there will likely be only one more chance, perhaps here at OP again. For now though, a talented field of 14 strives to pick up points in what is the richest edition of the Rebel. The current purse of $900.000 is an increase of $150.000 from last year, and a total of $300.000 more then two years ago. It is, in fact, now a richer race then the SUN Derby which takes place on Sunday. The Rebel has seen it’s share of highly successful winners, but the name that will stand out at anyone is surely Commanding. After winning the Rebel in 2013, he went on to win the KYD about six weeks later, and then about six months after that he became a BC Classic Champion. Of course, he is now continuing to add to his list of accolades in the shed. Commanding is not the only Rebel winner to win the KYD however. In 2008, Half Spirit did the same for trainer Buckeyebred. Last year the race was won by Salt Lake City, but also in that field was 2015 BC Classic winner, Viking Shield, who finished 3rd. Surely then, this is a race that has seen great horses pass through. Which of these horses will we be talking about years from now that followed in those footsteps? Time will tell, but for now, here is our field.
#1- Fearful (Mb Stables, ridden by P Lopez)- On the race track, Fearful has not accomplished anywhere near what many of his rivals have been able too. He’s only raced twice, including a free track debut. The other race was pretty impressive, scoring a victory at SA in a statebred maiden and receiving an SRF that seems a little low for the effort. Most likely, it’s a work that has the trainer taking this shot, and an impressive work it was. On the 26th of February, Fearful had a bullet work against 123 others (mostly stablemates) at a mile at SA. The trainer has two others in this field, and you have to think they will be his top contenders, but never count out anything from this stable.
#2- Fly Millennium (Blushing Meadows, ridden by Mar Garcia)- The Rene gelding has picked up some strong wins, going 3-for-8 in his career thus far. He is a graded stake winner, coming off an eye-opening win in the Grade 2 San Vincente Stakes at SA. Unfortunately for the trainer, there are no KYD points available for that seven furlong race, so Fly Millennium is going to have to find a way to stretch it out a little longer. If you go back another race, you will see a seventh place finish in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes, a race in which he tired out in at the end. He had a different running style in the San Vincente which is one favorable to stretching out a little longer. The talent is there and the work times at a mile are there. Fly Millennium could be a sneaky option to consider here if the odds climb. I have a gut feeling he’s going to get it done here.
#3- Twisted Diademe (Drabfantasy, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- Drabfantasy has had a high level of confidence in this Twist of Fate colt from the beginning. After all, he debuted in the $125.000 Swynford Stakes, a race won by recent San Felipe winner The Perfect Day. Twisted Diademe has never been in anything other then stakes, and managed his one win in the $250.000 Cup and Saucer against four others in restricted race for Canadians. His lone race this season was the Grade 3 Lewis at SA, and he could only finish 8th. I’m honestly a little unsure about Twisted Diademe against this company, his best results have been against smaller fields. His SRF numbers look like he might need to be a tick better to pull off a win here. A better work a couple days ago would have been nice to build some confidence.
#4- Electric Pip (Chili King Stables, ridden by V Espinoza)- Here is one of the latest top horses produced by the great Pip Boy. Right now, Electric Pip is still in the process of building his resume, as like Fearful, he only has two races to his credit. The two of them have actually taken a similar path to this race, as after a debut race, they went to SA and impressively broke their maiden. Electric Pip’s win was in unrestricted company. The work times are great, as shown by a bullet work at WO in early February. This is a big step up, but there is no more time to wait around to give him his shot at making the KYD field. The bloodline knows how to get it done.
#5- Steal Your Heart (Mb Stables, ridden by F Pennington)- In the morning, there is consistently no one better. Steal Your Heart has bullet works in each of his last four workouts, with most of them against a high amount of others. On race day, we are still waiting for our hearts to be stolen. Steal Your Heart has two wins in six starts, but the Red Rioja colt has been unable to step up when his trainer has tried to advance his career. Most recently, he was fourth in the Grade 3 Pilgrim at BEL when up against strong company. That turf stake was two races ago, but also about six months ago, so the trainer has been hard at work trying to get Steal Your Heart to step up on race day. The most recent win was a N1X allowance at TAM, and he was impressive. Now, it’s show time for Steal Your Heart. Will he finally step up?
#6- Cozzene Lyphard (Kingelleinc, ridden by J J Hernandez)- This Cozzene gelding has won two of his five races, and up until this point has shown a true interest in getting up on the lead and trying to stay there. The worked in the four-horse $75.000 Gold Rush at GG, but when the trainer tried to move him up another level, he would be beaten in the stretch, and came home in fifth in the Grade 2 Risen Star. If we don’t see him up there early, then we know that the trainer is trying a tactical adjustment, but that might not be needed. This race is not overloaded with speed, and we have seen several recent wire to wire winners in big races.
#7- Shocking Pretense (Barcelona Farms, ridden by R A Baze)- The only question surrounding Shocking Pretense is whether or not he can get the distance against the caliber of opponents he will see today. To this point, he has never raced more then seven furlongs in his career. However, in those races he has absolutely shown that he has what it takes to win, having done so in four out of six career starts. There are a couple of ungraded stakes in that category, including the $75.000 Kip Deville at RP and the $100.000 Pasco Stakes at TAM. He’s never raced at the graded level, but as is the case with others, the time is now to prove that he belongs if he wants a shot at the KYD.
#8- Walkin On Ice (Nj Vets, ridden G Stevens)- The runner up in the BC Juvenile Turf last fall has been a part of horse selling park often, having been sold as many times as he has career races (four). The most recent time he has swapped owners was in late January, when he went from Blushing Meadows to Nj Vets for a hefty $500.000 price tag. This has stagnated his career, as he still has not raced since the Juvenile Turf, this making the four and a half month layoff a legitimate issue today. The new connections deserve credit for not throwing him back out there too soon, and his placement here today certainly shows the trainer has been testing what surface really is better for him. Regardless of how he fares today, let us all hope he stays in the Nj Vets barn for a little while, because the horse deserves a steady owner.
#9- Rising Light (Nakamura Stables, ridden by K J Desormeaux)- Last month, Rising Light impressively scored a win in the Grade 3 El Camino at GG. The win was no fluke, as he beat Blue Guy that day, who you may recall won the TAM Derby last week, as well as Black Mach One, who sees here again. This good start also follows up a successful two year old campaign that saw him win four out of seven. Also there are those Laffin bloodlines in play, which always seem to shine this time of year. He is by Laffin Five, who as you probably guessed, has both Die Laffin and Five Daddy Five going for him. Rising Light is working just as good as anyone else in this field, and he might actually be one of the least talked about serious KYD threats in the game today. A win here will get some more people talking about him, and I like his chances quite a bit.
#10- One City (Mb Stables, ridden by M E Smith)- This gelding by the late Steel City is coming of a win in the always, always, always difficult TUP Derby (despite the reputation that TUP has within our game as a bottom level track). He won that race by four lengths. For One City, the TUP Derby wasn’t about seeing if he could race against against strong company, as he had already proven that he could. He was competitive, though winless, in a handful of stake opportunities throughout 2015, such as the $500.000 In Reality (FL Sire Stakes), where he was second to some horse named Champagne Supernova, who you’ll be seeing on Derby day. Since he was gelded, he has gone two-for-two, and he does seem to be the trainer’s biggest hope among his three entries in the race.
#11- Black Mach One (Smokey Stover, ridden by J Rosario)- The trainer will be hoping for a big run today by his $600.000 investment, after he could only muster a fourth place finish in the El Camino, a race won by Rising Light. He wasn’t bad that day, but Smokey Stover didn’t invest that sum of money to just have a contender in derby prep, the intent was to get in the field. Despite big wins in graded stakes as a two year old, such as the SAR Special, Black Mach One has a lot of horses to pass in order to get in the KYD field. Of some concern is that since the SAR Special, which is four races ago, the Plucky Mach colt has failed to hit the board. I am actually a big fan of Black Mach One and feel he still will accomplish more great things, but its crunch time now if he wants to make the KYD. Let’s see if he can step up.
#12- Swarley Kapai (Grimley, ridden by J J Castellano)- Up until her last race, Swarley Kapai spent her entire career on the New York racing circuit, showing that it is possible to not move a horse all around the country for every race. Five on her nine career races have specifically been NY-bred races, including victories in the $100.000 Key Cents in October at AQU and the $100.000 East View at the same track a month later. She’s also run at the graded level, attempting the Grade 3 Miss Grillo, the last time in which she ran on the grass. Her last race, the Grade 2 Las Virgenes at SA was the first time she left the Empire State, and she was a solid third. So, by the way, you caught all those female pronouns, I hope. Swarley Kapai is indeed a filly going up against the boys here today, adding another interesting dimension to this race. I’m admittedly surprised by that move and think she would have been better to stay on the KYO trail, but I have been proven wrong many times before.
#15 (pp 13)- Duel Threat (Australia Wide, ridden by C Hill)- Australia Wide continues his push to erase the nagging zero from his otherwise amazing career statistics, and he is helped in this race by the scratching of a couple horses that contracted outside post-itis. Th colt by El Gran du Diademe has only raced twice in his career, but he hasn’t known anything other then visiting the winner’s circle at the end of a race. After his maiden win, he backed it up with a win a PA-bred N2L allowance, a race in which I am very happy to see had filled, and would like to see more be filling. While he looked good there, Duel Threat has never raced more then six furlongs. His works definitely confirm that he will be able to stretch out, but there is no time for a learning curve at longer race if Duel Threat is to give Australia Wide a duel threat at the KYD alongside The Perfect Day.
#17 (pp 14)- Swinging Doors (Hawaiian Shirt Guy, ridden by J D Acosta)- Despite having accomplished a little more then some of the others in this field, Swinging Doors needed a couple doors to swing open for him in order to get a chance into this race. The biggest problem in that is that still is only win thus far in his maiden win. That’s not from a lack of trying, as Swinging Doors has run third in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes, beating by a couple others who are also solidly on the derby trail right now. He also went to the always tough TUP Derby and ran second to One City. Now that he is in the field, he is going to have to deal with this outside post. It’s going to be tough, but I am glad to see him getting a chance.
Prediction: 2-9-11-10
— NS
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
