July 27, 2016

The Grade I Haskell Invitational really needs no introduction. Tucked in perfectly between the rigors of the Triple Crown, the Midsummer Derby known as the Grade I Travers Stakes, and the year-end culmination of the Grade I Breeders Cup Classic, it has been graced by the presence of numerous champions and Hall Of Fame entrants over the years including Forty Niner, Holy Bull, Serena’s Song, Skip Away, Point Given, Rachel Alexandra and soon-to-be American Pharaoh. At HRP, it has also been one by numerous Hall Of Fame entrants (if there was one) including Dark Crown, Timepiece, Rancho Ruler, Five Fives and soon-to-be Chrystal Pip, one of the top horses at HRP right now. This year, we get a hodgepodge of three-year-olds who are really trying to cement their form at the top of the division and while the BEL winner has to be considered a contender, the role of favourite is really up in the air as the second half of the season looms large.

1-Indian Chief (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Scorpion Stables)

Indian Chief is the star of the Scorpion Stables and coming off two big wins in the TX Mile and the Easy Goer, takes a huge shot at the Haskell and could be incredibly tough from the inside post with speed ratings that are some of the best in the field. He was kept off the TC trail for a purpose and really handled older rivals at LS quite well and with the drop in weights, and speed from the inside, he is certainly formidable for connections looking for that big breakthrough win.

Analysis-Huge efforts in his last two make him a big threat

Fair Odds-5/2

2-Black Mojo (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Heavens Own)

From a $10.000 purchase to a $900.000 purchase, Black Mojo certainly has attracted attention this year and after a third in the AR Derby, a win in the Peter Pan and and a bang-up second in the BEL, he will try to build on his closing ability at a distance that should be perfect for him. He ran down the speed two back around one-turn at BEL but was too far back in a bulky field in the final leg of the TC and if he gets into trouble again, he might be hard pressed to find the room needed in the short final stretch at MTH.

Analysis-Big purchase needs to make his own luck

Fair Odds-6/1

3-Copper Opus (Three-year-old gray colt / Owner-Big Guns Stables)

At heart, Copper Opus is really only an allowance winner and like so many before him, he enters these big races with high expectations but really only a slim chance of passing other rivals for a minor award. Second in the AR Derby but far back in the KYD, he closed belatedly for fourth in the Queens Plate and might be better suited to 1 1/8 miles, although he will probably be close to the pace and will need to save some energy for the drive.

Analysis-Seems to be a midpack player

Fair Odds-20/1

4-Viking Rasta (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Delta Farms)

A maiden breaking win at TAM and a big stalking score in the Sir Barton led Viking Rasta to the Winn at CD but he was upstaged by a rival he meets once again here in the Haskell and the hope is that he can revert to that stalking style and find enough speed to chase. His speed ratings have been steadily improving but this is a huge jump in class and off current form, he will have to be better than ever to hit the board in this extremely tough field.

Analysis-Faces another stern class test

Fair Odds-12/1

5-Spirits Reward (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Big Guns Stables)

Since getting back to the dirt, Spirits Reward has been a completely different animal and after scoring in both the Plate Trial and the Queens Plate, he actually bypassed a much easier test this week in the Prince Of Wales to go here and could be extremely solid from his middle gate. Times have been solid and it looks like he was pointed to the race at FE before detouring to this spot and the only major factor is open company, which has not really been kind to him in previous starts.

Analysis-The move from restricted to open company looks tough

Fair Odds-4/1

6-Atomic Twister (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Blushing Meadows)

Grade I Wood Memorial winner Atomic Twister was well regarded in both the KYD and the PRK and came away with a very game second in the latter but makes his reappearance against similar rivals at MTH off a series of solid workouts in preparation. He will be sitting well back in the field and gets an excellent post to work with so look for him to be well spotted down the lane with enough late power to pass many of the field for a big piece.

Analysis-Excellent in the TC and now comes back off a rest

Fair Odds-7/2

7-Ocean Cookie (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Aml Racing)

Ocean Cookie has never faced stakes company but was solid enough winning at WO last time out to take a shot in the Haskell, although he will certainly be one of the longer shots in this loaded field. His main jockey comes down to ride him and it looks like he has been prepping at MTH for some time now so the home field advantage could be in his favour and he might be able to finish in midpack if he can hold his course.

Analysis-Never faced a field like this before

Fair Odds-30/1

8-Ghost Star (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)

Much like the runner along the rail, Ghost Star has taken on older runners this year and proven his might with a huge win in the Grade III Salvator Mile but the problem might be the distance as this gelding likes to sit far back in races and might be comprised by the early splits. Fractions in these route races are tough to gauge but there does look to be a lack of pace and if things are slow up front, he might not have enough to take down the win and might only get a minor piece at best.

Analysis-Will be last early and hoping for some speed up front

Fair Odds-6/1

9-Carneyman (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Broken Spoke Stables)

Carneyman has two wins in the last year but they have been two of the biggest races of his generation and since both have been upsets, you need to take him at huge odds and hope that he does not disappoint like so many times before. His victory in the Grade I BEL was one of the biggest shockers in modern HRP history and has to be taken with a grain of salt; if he wins, so be it, but it will not be with the backing of this handicapper.

Analysis-Way too hit and miss to back with any confidence

Fair Odds-15/1

10-Overspender (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

Overspender is not considered one of the big three-year-olds in the barn of his owner but has still managed to put together a solid career and comes into the Haskell with a sharp score in the Winn, with one of the best speed ratings in the field. Another who will be sitting off the early fractions, he gets the disappointment of an outside stall and that might force him wide into the turn, leaving some to question his stamina after a campaign that started in the first week of the year.

Analysis-Wide draw might hurt him in the final furlongs

Fair Odds-10/1

11-Copper Beast (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Pan Farms)

Copper Beast basically came from the parking lot to finish an incredible second in the KYD as one of the longshots but showed nothing in the BEL as the well-backed favourite and now, finds himself with the outside stall in the Haskell as he tries to regroup. That effort really was a regression and might have been a factor of his two huge efforts in previous starts but workouts have not been inspiring and he will have to find the right trip, like so many others, to hit the board in another big event.

Analysis-Will take back and make another huge run

Fair Odds-12/1

Overall

The three-year-old division seems to be in flux with a bevy of upsets in the big TC races and that leaves things in the Grade I Haskell ripe for another new shooter, and Indian Chief looks to be in an excellent position to take up that mantle off a pair of massive wins including one against older runners. His speed ratings are great and he gets a nice inside post, making him the favourite over PRK runner-up Atomic Twister as he looks to get back to the Grade I winner’s circle, and Spirits Rewards, who has scored two big wins at WO and hopes to continue that big streak against open rivals.

Prediction

Win-Indian Chief (5/2)

Place-Atomic Twister (7/2)

Show-Spirits Reward (4/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES