KY Oaks (Grade 1)- $1,250.000 Purse
CD- For Filles Three Years Old
One Mile and One Eighth on the Dirt
May 3, 2019

The months of prep races are over. No more calculating points and figuring out scenarios to get your horse in the big races contested at CD. Before the males get to do their thing on Saturday, the top three year old fillies in virtual racing are set to contest the prestigious KYO. While the Oaks does not get the same amount of attention as the Derby, the path to get here is the same. Points must accrued during the preps in order to a part of the field. The most successful trainer in the history of the race is Paradise Stable, something that you don’t get a chance to say every day, but the trainer did win the race in back to back years in 2010 and 2011, with both Rhythm Line and Funky Music. There are also some well known and highly successful trainers who’s names are absent from the past winner list, including the likes of Mb Stables and Smokey Stover. They combine for five of the fourteen runners in this race, so they look to change that! Interestingly, there is only one trainer in this race who has won it in the past. Take a look through the trainer list and see if you can figure it out, first. Did you find Waldo? Congratulations to them, who won it back in 2006. Will a 13 year drought be snapped, or will a new trainer get the win? Let’s take a look at our field to get started!

#1- Totally Baroque (Fractious, ridden by S X Brigmohan)- She will make her debut for the trainer in the KYO after being acquired from Mb Stables for $400.000 a couple of weeks ago. This came on the heels of her winning the Gazelle in early April, in what was the race the immediately followed her maiden win. The 100 points earned in that win were the only points that she got, it does have a feel that she was the not won of Mb’s top choices, and thus sent off to another stable. Whether or not that is a good or bad thing for her chances seems like it could go either way. She is a little tough to pick, though, when going up against this opposition. I love her name, by the way.

#2- Tenrikyo (Smokey Stover, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- Finished third on the KYO leaderboard, something that was largely helped out by her win in the Ashland, with the great F Pennington aboard. That jockey has won the last two editions of this race, but will be riding someone else in this field. Tenrikyo is appealing because of her overall running style in the ability to stay close, but run well in the end. She has not gone nine furlongs yet, but should be one to thrive in the final furlong here. In workouts, she has been firing nothing but bullets lately. This isn’t the first name that has been talked about in this division, but maybe she should be.

#3- Appealing Ginger (The Sidley Stud, ridden by J L Ortiz)- Ran second to Totally Baroque in the Gazelle last month, but did win a prep back in March as she finished first in the Grade 3 Honeybee. She does end up being the only one in this field who ran in that race, which is worth noting. The also eligible, Camp Hollywood, did run there for full disclosure. It is probable that we will be seeing her looking to make up ground in the stretch due to her running style. Does not have a public work since late March.

#4- Cannolo (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by A A Gallardo)- This is a filly who knows how to get it done, winning three of her five career races thus far. In March, she won the Grade 2 Davona Dale Stakes down at GP, a result that was critical in getting her into this field. Her 60 points put her 12th on the leaderboard, getting a boost with her fourth place showing in the Grade 1 Ashland last month. It appears as though she tried a different tactic in that race then she normally does, and it did not go as well as the trainer would have liked. I really do like how she ran in the Davona Dale. If she does that again, she can win.

#5- Deliberate Miss (Mb Stables, ridden by A Beschizza)- One of the three chosen by the trainer to run in the KYO as he hopes to win it for the first time. He purchased Deliberate Miss in private sales from Our Athletes in February, and all she has done with him since is win. Most recently, she captured the SUN Oaks in March, accounting for her 50 points. That was enough for her to finish 15th on the leaderboard, which for the trainer’s purposes was going to be adequate. Likely to be near the front early unless the trainer chooses differently.

#6- Z Command (Joshua Stables, ridden by R Bejarano)- While the trainer has the horse to beat in the KYD, he can’t be overlooked her in the Oaks, as well. Z Command has been a very consistent racehorse for her entire career, dating back to when she was two. She ran third in the BC Juvenile Fillies, and successfully carried her form into this year. The knock on her, though, is that while she is always near the front, she only has two career wins. Might be tough for others to predict what she will do in this race, tactically, since she has run well both while on the lead and while coming from the back.

#7- Stormy Embrace (Mb Stables, ridden by D Van Dyke)- As a third quarter two year old, she was a late bloomer, not being able to run in big races as a two year old. She did well in California, then the trainer took a leap of faith for just her fourth career start, coming in the Grade 2 GP Oaks at the end of March. That would be a win, and a 96 SRF earned in the process. That’s a figure only Love Struck Baby has matched in this field, and that came in the same race. Read what you want into that, but it does show that she matches up well when running against the best and still may not have peaked yet.

#8- Blue Caviar (Waldo, ridden by J Lermyte)- The trainer looks for their second KYO win, and Blue Caviar has a very good chance to do so. She has a great record thus far, with five wins in eight races, as well as two additional third place finishes. Several of those wins were at WO, taking a pair of strong ON-bred stakes to close out her two year old season. In 2019, she has carried her momentum well and comes off a wire to wire win at SA in the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel Stakes. Those results allowed her to get 52 points, and to place 13th on the leaderboard. Has great chemistry with regular rider, J Lermyte.

#9- Cardi B (Gdp Inc, ridden by E J Wilson)- The trainer had to like it that his filly finishes at the top of KYO leaderboard with 120 points. Much of them were gained last month, by winning the Grade 3 Fantasy down at OP on three weeks rest following a third place run in the FG Oaks, a Grade 2. So, while those races were needed to get her here, this will be her third race in seven weeks, can be a little iffy as to whether its too much or not. Like most of the others in here, she is consistent, with eight finishes in the money (three wins) in her nine career starts. You don’t have to like her namesake to like her chances.

#10- Southern Two Step (The Sidley Stud, ridden by F Pennington)- Pennington looks to extend his winning streak to three in the Oaks, and let’s not forget that great weekend that he had at CD last year, which is only natural for a legendary jockey like him. He has not always ridden Southern Two Step, but was aboard for her biggest win so far, the Grade 1 Starlet at LA last December. That gave her some points, and her consecutive third place efforts at the GP Oaks and Fantasy got her into this race. That will mean three races in six weeks, a tough assignment.

#11- You Just Have To Wait (Estero Farms, ridden by J Talamo)- Estero Farms had many three year old fillies have success, but as we got closer to this race weekend, he saw many of them drop out of the top 14, and end up with just one in the race. He had five horses finishes between 18th and 27th on the leaderboard. Perhaps Camp Hollywood gets in on a scratch. So, it’s all about You Have To Wait for him, a filly that he acquired in private sales in November for $250.000 and had success with, highlighted by back to back wins in the Santa Ynez Stakes (Grade 2) and the ungraded Busher. Was 10th on the leaderboard.

#12- Panentheism (Smokey Stover, ridden by J Alvarado)- This looks like one of the favorites in the race due to her overall consistency. In seven races, she is always near the front at the end, demonstrating great stretch desire, and always hitting the board. Her signature win up to this point is the Grade 2 Alexandra Stakes at FG, but other then that, with just a little more luck at the wire, she could have a couple more big wins. I also really like that she is well rested coming into this race. This is not a filly making three starts in six weeks, or something to that effect. She’s been off since the end of March and is ready to fire a big one. I know her full brother will be rooting for her!

#13- Dream Whisperer (Mb Stables, ridden by T Gaffalione)- The most experienced of the three that will run for Mb Stables. Dream Whisperer has won a nice four-of-nine clip for her career, and is on a recent string of winning every other race. If that trend holds up here, then Mb will need one of his other two to get the win. Two of her last three starts have been graded wins, including the Grade 2 FG Oaks in late March, where she slipped by Panentheism in the late moments of the race to get the win. Like that rival, she is very fresh, and has actually only raced two times this year. Works are great, and if I were to pick and Mb horse for this race, she is the one.

#14- Love Struck Baby (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by J Velazquez)- Drawing the outside post, this is a filly that has also won four out of nine, but none of them have been in her last five starts. After starting her career perfectly with four wins, including capturing two big SAR races: both the Schuylerville (Grade 3) and the Grade 1 Spinaway, she has been shut out of the winners circle. But before beginning to ponder if she really wants to go a mile or more, she stepped up and finished second, to Stormy Embrace, in the GP Oaks. That got her into this field, where she hopes to start a new winning streak.

Prediction: 9-6-12-7

— NS

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES