BC Fillies & Mares Sprint – Grade I
KEE Race #9 7f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $1,000.000 For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward.
This is the one race where three year olds don’t have a dominant record with just 5 wins from the 15 races so far. The most successful age group is four year olds with 6 wins, with 3 five year olds and 1 seven year old. Last years winner Slckmoment Laga was the first three year old since 2017 to win it so this is a race that is far more reliant on speed than weight. Mb Stables has won twice along with D J C Racing Stables and Dynark and the track record was set in 2012 by Avery Island at 1:20.78, a record that is likely to stay a while because that was the year when everything at HRP was juiced.
So here is the field for the 2022 Ladies Sprint Championship, good luck to all the runners:
1 Ifyerwokeyerajoke TwinTowersRacing Gaffalione T
Bred by TwinTowersRacing
A three year old filly
2022 form: 11400113
Total Purse: $690.98
WR: 109
I think there is a message from the stable in the name here but there is also a message from them that this filly could run a big race. She only broke her maiden at the start of the year but since then she has won the Iowa Oaks and The grade one Test as well as a great third in the Cotillion last time. That is top three year old form and it is good enough that she could almost have the choice of assignments in the BC. She gets the ace draw which doesn’t suit everyone but i think she is just fine with it having won the Iowa Oaks from there and run her best races from an inside gate.
2 Starting Over TwinTowersRacing Davis D
Bred by Axeman
A four year old filly
2022 form: 1102430
Total Purse: $547.36
WR: 104
Started off the year with a bang with two grade three wins but hasn’t been in the winners circle since although very nearly won the grade one Derby City Distaff when going down by a neck. Her form is hard to read as she has run and done well from 12 furlongs on the turf to 7 furlongs on the dirt but if you look at her last three sprints alone she has a record of two black type wins and a grade one second and i think that gives us a much better idea of her chances. She gets the perfect draw and with the stable drawn one and two it gives them a huge chance.
3 Oceanus Wood Duck Stables Cedillo A
Bred by Team 7 Illusions
A three year old filly
2022 Form: 011101
Total Purse: $408
WR: 109
This filly has only raced six times but has won four of them and has been building a hugely impressive record. Her racing style as a closer is tough to win with these days but when things go right she can produce a devastating burst of speed at the finish as she displayed in the TC Of America last time out. The frailty of the closing style however was evident in the race that preceded that when she got too far back in the Ballerina and hit all sorts of speed bumps in her effort to get through late. I am not sure the BC is the time to try and mess with her running style so she will need some race engine luck to give the trainer their first BC win. I feel if things go her way she could well win and with this great draw she has been given a good chance to do so.
4 Catch The Trip Gdp Inc Lopez P
Bred by Gdp Inc
A five year old mare
2022 form: 3100120
Total Purse: $346.48
WR: 105
Doesn’t come into this with an outstanding record but has shown glimmers and is working very nicely. I like five year olds in these sprint races as they often run well as an under represented group and if you take away her terrible run last time in the ONT Fashion Stakes then her previous two runs stack up pretty well. She carried bottom weight in the Honorable Miss Handicap but won well with Christina G behind and then ran a strong second in the PID Masters. Whilst it is true her body of form doesn’t look as good as some here she gets a great draw and a case can be made for her chances.
5 Slckmoment Laga Night Rider Stables Saez L
Bred by Lagastable
A four year old filly
2022 form: 410400
Total Purse: $2025
WR: 105
When you look at the facts here you do wonder how she only has a WR of 105 and only just sneaked into this race. The reining BC Sprint champion she has won the most money and is a grade one winner this year, how is she not top rated and into this race with ease? Well it all comes down to how she has performed since that brilliant Vinery Madison win in April over this course and distance. The figures don’t look good on paper but if you take out the Ballerina where a wide draw destroyed her she hasn’t been beaten more than two lengths in any of the top races she has run in. Could she defend her title, well it is very easy to make a great case for her especially as four year olds have the best record in the race but there is always this doubt that she wont be as good this year as she was last. I must admit i am tempted to give her the benefit of the doubt and can see her doing well.
6 Christina G Mb Stables Hernandez R M
Bred by Gustafason Stable
A five year old mare
2022 form: 3122031
Total Purse: $913.41
WR: 107
Ran in this race last year from gate nine and ran on late to be eighth and can be a bit susceptible to a strong early pace. She has been better placed this year to run in the top half of her races and did well to win The Bloom Handicap last time from the stalk. She is one of those who always gives you a run for your money and wins her fair share of good races but can also be a bit one paced at this level so will need a decent run to get into a winning position down the stretch. The draw suits her perfectly and is worth a length which brings her right into things.
7 Main Flirt Mb Stables Velazquez J R
Bred by Gdp Inc
A three year old filly
2022 form: 402021220
Total Purse: $759
WR: 106
A three year old so there is some weight relief for her and she has the right sort of form to be a real contender. Laid out as an Oaks prospect early in the year she made the KYO field and ran a cracker to be fifth beaten just a length in that championship race. She got through that race well as some can falter after a big start and her next start was in the Acorn where she ran a big race finishing strongly to be beaten a half length into second. With two big runs over ground it was a surprise to see her back in sprints for her last four starts but she was impressive in the Victory Road and then ran a super race to be second in The Test. She did well in the Ballerina but a wide gate ruined her chances in the TC Of America last time where she covered too much ground to end up sixth. You have to like what she has done and she clearly has enough stamina if this ends up as a lung buster.
8 Lady Narloff TwinTowersRacing Gonzalez Ru
Bred by TwinTowersRacing
A four year old filly
2022 form: 1430014
Total Purse: $868.80
WR: 106
Another from this stable that has up and down form but her up is very good and she must be rated a chance as an automatic qualifier. She dug deep to win The Princess Rooney over the seven furlongs from a wide draw which was a very good effort from just behind the speed but then changed tactics completely in the PID Masters last time to turn into a front runner and weaken into fourth. As usual the correct tactics or at least being chosen to run the perfect transit will be the difference here and the trainer would’ve learned plenty from those two efforts.
9 Spearmint Rhino Arindel Jaramillo E
Bred by Arindel
A three year old filly
2022 form: 10104404
Total purse:
WR: 103
It is funny to think that this horse qualified for the BC in April after taking the SantaYnez and the Beaumont because she hasn’t even made the top three since then but still gets into the race. To be fair to her she has run pretty well in some tough races but it has been rare for her to run the same way twice in a row so that may be the reason behind her slide in form. She ran pretty well in The Acorn storming home late to be beaten a length but then switched to front runner in The Test where she weakened into fourth. Her best chances will come with some race engine luck but she has proved to be a capable sprinter so she can’t be counted out.
10 Canary For One Mo Mentum Farm Van Dyke D
Bred by Wood Duck Stables
A four year old filly
2022 form: 40032322
Total purse: $374.84
WR: 103
It is not ideal to be coming into the biggest race of the year without a win from eight starts this season but she has been consistency personified and you can’t knock her effort. Second to Christina G in the Bloom Handicap last time she is worse off at the weights so it is hard to see her turning that around but she will run an honest race and is just the sort that could make her own luck and get some place money.
11 Baptisted By Fire Mo Mentum Farm Maldonado E
Bred by Jive Inc
A six year old mare
2022 form: 23424111
Total purse: $813.28
WR: 112
This mare has really hit her stride recently and is a 15 race winner that flies a little under the radar coming into this championship race. Most of her wins came through a career that saw her running for a $2.50 tag at one time but since this stable bought her for $45 she has been proving that she has been climbing her improvement curve to come into this race as the top qualifier. Racing over longer trips for much of last year she came back to sprinting in April this year and really hasn’t looked back since. Her last win was in the PID Masters where she broke last and produced a devastating finish to win by a length going away. With all of her three recent wins coming from the back we can probably expect the same today but this is a much bigger field and it will be far harder to do that. Her biggest problem may be traffic but this wide draw should allow her to track a little wide and avoid some of it. A winning chance for a stable looking for their third BC win.
12 Bella Chica Mb Stables Franco M
Bred by Mb Stables
A three year old filly
2022 form: 2001421211
Total Purse: $1240.59
WR: 108
This is one of those seven furlong specialists that has raced other trips because of the lack of suitable races but she showed last time in the Raven Run just how good she can be when raced over her optimum trip. She is certainly effective at further as she showed in the WO Oaks but her run from wide last time was so dominant that i feel she is one of the favorites to win here. She started off the year a little slow but has really honed her skills over the summer and is in tip top shape for this. The three year old allowance wont hurt her chances either and the wide draw may help her come from behind style.
13 Zero Twist Smokey Stover Centeno D E
Bred by John Henry
A five year old Mare
2022 Form: 11232000
Total Purse: $958.21
WR: 104
Started the year with a bang winning two in January and was then bought by this owner for $424. Things continued in the next few as she placed in the grade one Vinery Madison, only going down by a half length, then third in the grade one Derby City beaten less than a length. She looked to have found a winning spot in the Chicago Stakes but just failed by a head but it was after that race that she has struggled to find her form. Her best is good enough to put her in this finish but i am always wary when a horse goes off the boil approaching a big race like this especially when she ends up with a nasty draw.
14 Last Call YME Stable Espinoza V
Bred by YME Stable
A three year old filly
2022 form: 1041210
Total Purse: $527.30
WR: 108
Her win over the seven furlongs in the Ballerina was super impressive running from wide for a comprehensive two length win. That was a very clear cut win and it is hard to see how any of them that finished behind could turn that form around and lets not forget in winning that race she remained unbeaten at seven furlongs. She has run well enough over a mile plus but looking at her effort at the end of her races seven furlongs is definitely her trip. With only nine races under her belt she is one of the lightest raced and least exposed in the field and in a race that the younger fillies have done well in she must have a huge chance of giving the stable their second BC win. The car park will of course be a big blow for the trainer as they seek their second BC win but she did it in The Ballerina so there is hope she can do it again today.
15 Dialing Angelos Stable – Also Eligible –
When you compare her form to some of the qualifiers in this race it actually stacks up pretty well, in fact i would give a better chance than many of them and if she got into the race i would give her a winning chance.
16 Queen Mother Wood Duck Stables – Also Eligible –
Another AE who would have a decent chance with a run. She was huge in the ONT Fashion last time showing great improvement through her season and again if something happens and she gets in i would be serious about her winning chance.
17 Always A Virgin Tinkey – Also Eligible –
It is great to see this under rated trainer with such a good filly and on her second in the TC Of America last time from the car park draw you would have to give her a big chance with a run. It is unusual to have the AE’s with a better chance than many of the actual runners but that is the nature of the qualification process and very often the best ones don’t get in. I feel her time will come, but maybe not this year.
18 Kreepy Chill EasyMoney Stables – Also Eligible –
Highly unlikely as AE 4 but nevertheless like the others on the substitute list would have a chance should she draw in.
SUMMARY
It is not often i go through a BC race and see so many AE’s with better chances than some of the runners but in truth pretty much anything could win this on its day. Once again i tend to go with the WR and Baptised By Fire but the two closest to her in Oceanus and Ifyerwokeyearjoke have much better draws. It will be an interesting race as there are a few very effective closer’s in the race and i do wonder whether we will see something snatching a lead from nearer the pace and getting a break on them. Whatever happens this looks as though it will be a great race so good luck to all the runners and may the race engine be ever in your favor.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, THE BREEDERS CUP
