BC Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1)- $2,000.000 Purse
DMR- For Fillies Two Years Old
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt
November 1, 2024
The greatest weekend in virtual racing is upon us, and before I get started with my first preview, I would like to congratulate all of the trainers for qualifying one or more horses into these BC races. With this race, we will be looking at the BC Juvenile Fillies, which offers a $2,000.000 purse to be split amongst its top finishers. This race may or may not lead a horse into much greater things as they get older, but the past winners list has some great names on it. None are bigger that the best female virtual racehorse of all time, La Terrifiant, who won the race in 2017 for Jive Inc. The last two winners, however, were not really able to do a lot after their win. 2022 victor Rabbit Bay would not win another stake, although in fairness to her, she had a solid three-year-old season in overnights. Last year’s winner, Agapova, for Royalty Stables, would not see the winner’s circle again. None of the top three finishers from this year’s KYO ran in the BC Juvenile Fillies, though the fourth-place runner in the KYO, Purple Charger, was second in this race. For now, we will enjoy the greatest two-year-old fillies as they compete for this $2,000.000 purse and wish them all the best as they move forward. Let’s meet those who qualified for this big race:
1- Credit Crime (Aer Stables, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- After a good debut, Credit Crime won in her second career start, at WO, by an impressive three lengths and has never looked back. A month later, she was winning the $150.000 Astoria at the Spa, and then followed that up with a good third place performance in the Grade 3 Adirondack. The filly continued to race at SAR afterwards and scored her biggest win to date: the Grade 1 Spinaway at the end of August. Credit Crime continued to show that she could stretch it out and had no problem with her first time going more than a mile, running second in a photo to Out of Tlove in the Grade 1 Alcibiades. She’s never looked bad in a race, and I Ortiz Jr has been her regular rider. Plenty capable of cashing in here, and it would not be a crime.
2- Snow Ridge (Fractious, ridden by F Geroux)- Broke her maiden in her second career start, coming at CD at the start of June. Stayed there for the $225.000 Debutante, and after running at the back early, she passed a few and got closer to the eventual winner, but still only finished sixth. After winning a CA-bred stake on this track in August, she made the cross-country trip to SAR for the Spinaway where she had a similar race to the Debutante but passed enough to be fourth. Comes here off a win in the Grade 2 Chandelier Stakes at SA with a performance that I really needed to see to have a little more confidence that she can prevail against the absolute best. However, I find others in here more appealing.
3- Soliloquy Sunset (Nakamura Stables, ridden by A A Gallardo)- Perfection is the story of her career thus far, visiting the winner’s circle in all four of her career races. During that stretch, she has also shown she is versatile, handling the bullring at CT on debut, and then moving to the turf to win the $100.000 Colleen Stakes at MTH in July. That would bring her here, for the Grade 1 DMR Debutante, where starting from the outside would not stop her either, as she went wire to wire in that victory. Last month, it was back to the east coast, for the Grade 1 Frizette at AQU, and she won that as well. The only real argument against her at this point is that eventually a streak like this will come to an end, but that does not necessarily have to happen here, does it?
4- Escapist (Williams9, ridden by L Saez)- Began her career with Fractious, winning on debut at CD, and then finishing third in the $150.000 Astoria at SAR. It would be after that race where she was picked up by WIlliams9, with the trainer spending $350.000 to pick her up in private sales in July. Since then, she has made three starts, and while the first one did not go well for her, tiring late in the Adirondack, she bounced back well in her last two, each of which had her going a mile or more. She would win the Grade 3 Pocahontas at CD, and then looked good three weeks later when she was third in the Alcibiades, a race that certainly attracts the best. I see her a little like I do Snow Ridge, though. She’s proven she could win this race, but others in here will excite me more.
5- Out Of Tlove (Williams9, ridden by J R Velazquez)- This is the Williams9 filly that excites more, and there are a couple reasons for that. Primarily, I like her overall consistency, as she has never failed to finish in the top four, and if we throw out what is a solid debut at SA where she was fourth, than she has always hit the board. After winning a couple of overnights, she began a three race streak of finishing third in some hotly contested races: first the $225.000 Debutante at CD, and then coming here for the Sorrento Stakes and the DMR Debutante. Last month, however, she had her big win, capturing the Grade 1 Alcibiades with a wire to wire effort, and I think she could very well have a nice trip here to do the same or similar while starting from this post.
6- Luminous Gold (Fractious, ridden by F Prat)- Once she got her debut race out of the way, this filly has primarily run in California State Breds, including two such races here at DMR. Before she came here, she broke her maiden at SA and would then run third here in the $100.000 CTBA Stakes. It was a good performance which saw her only miss the victory by half a length. She would not miss after that, with a little more distance being helpful to capture the $100.000 Generous Portion Stakes. Left the west coast for the Grade 1 Frizette last month and would run with the leaders throughout and place third. Never really seems to be out of a race.
7- The Lioness (Mb Stables, ridden by T Gaffalione)- She will have the sole attention of her trainer here in the BC Juvenile Fillies as the trainer’s only entry. Mb Stables, overall, as three wins in this race. The Lioness was fourth on debut at RUI, and then once the Bute was gone, she hit her best stride, breaking her maiden here before three straight races of cashing a check. Ran second in the $200.000 Sorority Stakes at MTH and would be the runner up again in the Grade 2 Chandelier, with a fourth-place effort in the Pocahontas between them. So, she does only have the one win to her credit right now, but she is consistently in the mix every time she is out there, and nothing from this barn should ever be ruled out.
8- Twizted Tea (Asgar, ridden by P Lopez)- Won in her second career start, coming at PIM, and that set off a stretch where she would win three out of four. This would include two stakes, first being the $125.000 My Dear at WO, and a big victory right here in the Grade 3 Sorrento Stakes. Of the horses that we have looked at thus far, many of them have a style where they like to be on or near the lead, but that is not the case at all for Twizted Tea. In both of those stakes that she won, as well as in her last outing, being the runner up in the Frizette, she has typically been at the back, or near the back and did her best running late. Perhaps, things can set up nicely for her here, and those races have had big fields, so I would not be concerned about the size of this one.
9- Center Of Gravity (Alydar Stables, ridden by T Conner)- Her career got off to a fast start, as she would win her first three races, which was highlighted by the $175.000 ELP Debutante. That was enough for the prior trainer, and Alydar Stables picked her up a week later in private sales for $200.000. Center Of Gravity was good in her debut for her new trainer, running second in the Grade 3 Pocahontas. However, something happened last month in the Chandelier. We can throw out, but of the first eight horses that we have looked at, none of them had a red flag race like that after their debut. I do think Center Of Gravity can bounce back, but in this type of field, more than just getting back on your feet is required.
10- Aye Eye (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by S X Bridgmohan)- Unfortunately for this filly, the BC is in November and not in August. She began her career nicely, as after her debut she won two out of three, including the Grade 3 Adirondack at SAR, as well as the $225.000 Debutante at CD. But that is not where it stops for her. And while Center Of Gravity had the one concerning performance, the last two races for Aye Eye are not encouraging at all. You can look at the bright side and say she was not badly beaten in the Frizette in terms of distance to the leader, but back-to-back races like that means I can’t pick you in the BC. Now, I will put TwinTowersRacing up there with anyone when it comes to turning a horses form around, but he will need to have that magic touch here.
11- Down On The Beat (Night Mare Racing, ridden by D Davis)- After looking good on debut at SA, running third, Down On The Beat went to her home state and broke her maiden against fellow NY-Breds at AQU. This moved her into the stake level, and she would prove that she was up to the task. First, she would run second to Credit Crime in the $150.000 Astoria at SAR, the track where she would spend her summer. In July, she got the win in the $175.000 Schuylerville and continued to run well in the Grade 1 Spinaway, placing second there. In that, again, she was beaten by Credit Crime. Didn’t show much last month in the Frizette, but I wouldn’t call it a poor performance, either. She usually looks to come from off the pace.
12- Stink Eye (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by A Cedillo)- The second of the two entries for the trainer, each of which are sired by freshman sire Expert Eye. It would take this filly a little to get going, with two subpar outings to start her career, and then ultimately breaking her maiden in August at SAR by four lengths. She would be moved right into Grade 1’s after that, and Stink Eye did not struggle to make that jump. Staying at SAR, she would run third in the Grade 1 Spinaway to a couple that she sees here again. Last month, it was off to KEE for the Alcibiades where she did not cash a check, but still ran decently enough, placing fifth. She gives the trainer his better shot to win this race.
13- Princess Caraboo (Fractious, ridden by M Franco)- Fractious may have sold off a bunch in the recent auction, but he kept many good ones for himself, as evidenced by having three fillies here in this race. Princess Caraboo would seem to be his best chance to win this, despite having to start from the outside. She has made four starts and has never finished outside of the top two in her career. Made her debut at PRX and was the runner up there. A month later, she got the job done at CD and followed that up by running second in both the $175.000 ELP Debutante, and then doing the same here in the Grade 1 DMR Debutante. She has never run more than seven furlongs before, which could be a red flag, but I am not concerned about it. What I am concerned about is her working a second slower at SA on October 24 than she did there on September 25.
14- Speed Five (Asgar, ridden by J Lezcano)- Our final horse to look at is this filly by So Profound, a horse that comes here off of a third-place effort in the Grade 2 Chandelier Stakes with a strong come from behind effort. That race snapped a three-race winning streak that she had previously, beginning when she broke her maiden at WO against fellow ON-Breds, and then an allowance at HST where she beat up overmatched competition. Three weeks later, it was off to the Muskoka Stakes at WO, a Canadian bred race that only ran with four horses. She was the best of the bunch that day, sending her into the Chandelier. Coming from the outside is never easy, but it has been done before and can be again.
Prediction: 1-3-5-8
— NS
Categories: BC 2024, Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, THE BREEDERS CUP
