DMR Futurity – Grade I (P4)
DMR Race #10 7f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $300.000 For Two Year Olds.
Last years winner came from the Smokey Stover stable and went on to win the BC Juvenile where as the 2019 winner Weak Sheik can be found at the free track after he fell apart early in his three year old campaign. So this race can be a good pointer to the BC and suits those early types of which there may be a few here.
Lets look at how they line up:
1 Dwindle Mb Stables Ortiz I Jr
In a year when the two year old pond looks bigger than ever it is amazing how this trainer can maintain their dominance in these juvenile contests but whilst others struggle they are taking as many stakes as they always do. This one is already a stakes winner and gets the perfect draw for what looks like a forward running style. A winner way back on the 2nd April he then went and took the Violette 5 months later making all from a wide draw and hanging on gamely. He wont have to work half as hard to get on the pace today and that looks ominous for the rest of the trainers.
2 Mount Tongariro Smokey Stover Davis D
If i drive to some high ground just up the road i could look at this ones names sake, in fact i was skiing there a few weeks ago so there is a part of me that would love this one to win. A good winner over a mile in a big ticket DMR Maiden she earned a 90 speed figure which is very useful over that trip at this time in his career. The draw is perfect and of course we all know how successful the trainer has been with their breeding program so he must be given a big chance despite looking a bit off the pace as far as his works go.
3 Ransack Riggins Racing Desormeaux K J
The trainer was a dominant figure a few seasons ago and it is great to see them back in these big races even if their stable isn’t as expansive as it once was. An improving sort with a good draw he will be in the race that is for sure but he wouldn’t be the obvious choice on works and form so far.
4 Killer Instinct Mb Stables Gonzalez Ru
The second runner from the stable and the rest of the trainers will be depressed enough that they have drawn so well with both their runners let alone the fact that they are both already stakes winners. This one has more experience which may play a big part and his win in the Graduation Stakes from a poor draw make him look even better running from this much better gate. This could easily be a one two for Mb Stables and i feel this one may run on the back of the stable mate and then beat him for a finish at the end.
5 Come With Assets Fractious Van Dyke D
Stuck on really well to finish a half length behind Killer Instinct in The Graduation but the draws suggest he will be very hard pushed to improve on that today. Bought for $550 from the Harrell operation he had run third in the Bashful Manor before that and i do feel he may be better suited by the seven furlongs so there may be a bit of improvement to come.
6 Confirmation TwinTowersRacing Lezcano J
A good winner on debut after being bought for $100 pre race he has failed in both his attempts at black type since and his trainer must be hoping for an improved effort today. A punchers chance and they are always dangerous.
7 Chai West Alydar Stables Elliott S
Won a big ticket maiden in the mud at CD and then ran a cracker in the Best Pal when running on strongly for third. On that last run he would be a huge chance here and i actually think this gate will suit him better than the two slot he got in the Best pal. Look to him coming hard and late and he looks the biggest danger to the big guns.
8 Seismic Our Athletes Smith M E
Still a maiden but working like a winner and they are always tough to read. He clearly has ability but until he wins a race it is hard to weigh him up. He wouldn’t be a shock winner but he would be one that comes from outside the box.
9 Grouse Mountain John Henry Bahen S R
Finished just in front of Chai West when second in the Best Pal and was also finishing off like this seventh furlong will suit. Another from the Harrell operation his biggest challenge may be his running style as in both of his black type runs, including a win in the Tremont, he has come from a long way back. The wide draw will help that late run and with plenty of pace inside he could very well fly down the stands side and take the win.
10 Up In Smoke Jive Inc. Moran D
The car park goes to Up In Smoke who also ran in the Best Pal and flew home from the furthest back to be fifth. We can see how the draw influences these horses in his last two starts as he was drawn better for the CT Futurity and made all in a fast pace to win and was then drawn wide in the Best pal and became a deep closer. There is no doubt this one has a ton of ability but he has been given yet another poor draw and will have to work very hard to get the win.
SUMMARY
These races are never easy to try and read but you generally can’t go wrong with any two year old from Mb Stables. I think the Best Pal holds some keys to this outcome and each of the three runners that were prominent in that race have claims on their performances. The draw favors Mb Stables though so it is hard to go past their runners but i will box up the three wide gates in the hope a fast early pace may see them coming home late.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
