Ladies before the gentlemen… and the ladies will be headed to the gate on Friday for the KY Oaks (GI) as the sophomore class will see who will rule the roost, here in Louisville.

I’m probably not going out on a limb much by picking the Australia Wide trained Shake It Off as my top selection.  She hasn’t been to the races much, but she sure does look like a monster.  That was a heck of a run in the GP Oaks (GII) while facing graded horses for the first time… all she did was earn a 98 SRF Speed Figure and win by two, while running the fastest mile and a sixteenth for 3yo fillies this season.

Let’s move in a couple of post positions and put Wicked Heat in the second spot here today.  She went by them like a FedEx truck down the lane at FG last out and that was quite an impressive move.  She’s proven as a top handicap filly and deserves a big look here.

I’m probably keeping it chalky with the selections, but I’ll put Notarized Kate in the third spot.  Half way down he backside in the Ashland (GI) I didn’t think she had a chance to get a check, yet pulled off a win (DH) making an absolute huge move down the lane.  If she repeats that… look out!

Here’s the Field….

About as consistent a filly as you could want in the barn as she has hit the board in six of seven starts.  Her two wins came at MSW and ALW levels, so she’s still looking for her first stakes win, even though she’s been close in all of her black-type starts.  That head-beaten runner-up last out at SA certainly proves that she has the talent to give them a tussle there today, and the rail could lend a helping hand to her front running style.  She may be the toughest non stakes winner there is.

Two wins and two seconds from four starts certainly proves that she is nothing but a tough-knocking race horse.  A DH for the win last out in the Ashland (GI) where she was dismissed at 12/1 odds stamps her as a horse to contend with here today.  And I just don’t think you’ll be getting those odds again either.  She’s undefeated at two-turn races.

Winner of the SA Oaks where she closed like a freight train to win by a head, she was sold after that race for $400.000 and now makes her first start for the new owners.  She was making a nice living on the LA state-bred circuit, putting away cash with 1-2 finishes.  She seems to be this type of horse and I certainly wouldn’t ignore her.

ok…ok…  that was not expected.  A dud in hte Gazelle (GII) where she just never lifted a foot and finished tenth of twelve beaten five lengths as the post time favorite.  For a horse that’s won half of her eight starts and was third on BC Day last year, that certainly wasn’t what the doctor ordered.  Can she bounce back here or are there bigger issues?

Sold twice prior to that last out effort where she was sent off as the 20/1 outsider in the Gazelle (GII) and came home a neck winner to set that one on tilt.  She had failed v. graded company before that, so evidently the barn has her figured out and running on all eight cylinders right about now.  She’s another that just can’t be overlooked.

Her three-race win streak came to an end as she ended up fifth in the GP Oaks (GII) where she seemed to flash a bit of speed and then just folded up and called it a day.  I really don’t see anything that tipped the race as a possible bounce, but she’s going to have to get that old mojo going or it’s going to be a long afternoon.

Classy filly looks at graded foes like making toast for breakfast… just another thing to her.  It was good to see her get back to her winning ways (even if it was a DH) in the Ashland (GI) at KEE last out, where her late turn of foot was a new tool.  If she stays out of trouble and runs her race, she may be the one to beat.

Nice second in the FG Oaks (GII) last out, but she’s still in search of her first graded win and this is obviously a tough spot to be looking.  She was third at GP in her only other graded start, so she has been on the board in both high-class starts and could have her best racing in front of her.

Only four starts for this one, but she has a pair of wins and a pair of seconds including a win in the Fantasy (GIII) at OP last out.  Both of her stakes efforts have been at two turns and she has a win and a second, so you certainly have to think she is a horse that has a huge future in front of her… could today be a start to the future?

Never off the board in nine starts, winning four of those, and looked good winning the FG Oaks (GII) last out, where she showed her late move and just went by everything down the lane for that victory.  She was second in her only other seasonal start and looks ready to knock the door down again.  She’s certainly on the short list for this one.

Another lightly raced filly making her fifth start and has two wins from her efforts including a nice win at SA in the Santa Ysabel (GIII) at 28/1 odds.  She was closing fast last out when fourth in the SA Oaks (GI) and everything points to her wanting the extra half-a-furlong today.  She might be overlooked and that could be a good thing.

The King comes in with this filly that will be making only her fourth lifetime start, yet may be the post time favorite when all is said and done.  Looked mighty nice wining the GP Oaks (GII) in her first graded effort and she sure did make that look easy, in a very quick time.  That 98 speed fig number is pretty big… and so are her chances here.

Sold for $375.000 after that disappointing sixth place finish in the Fantasy (GIII) at OP.  She’s been on the board in just about every other lifetime start and won a graded race at OP prior to that last out fizzle.  It’s a tough spot to turn it around but a wet surface might play into her hands.

Won the SUN Oaks then came back to run up the track in the Beaumont (GIII ) at KEE in her most recent.  That was a flag raising race and catching the fourteen hole does this one no favors.  She’s going to need a major overhaul to get the job done here today.

Also Eligible

Won the SUN Oaks but will need help to draw in off of the AE list.

She’s been close in her last two starts v. graded company and could be a horse that could do some harm if she drew in, which is doubtful.

Another that was close in some nice graded races and certainly would be in the conversation if she were able to get into the starting gate.

            Willie’s Green Card    12  /  10  /  7

Categories: Grade I