The MTH Cup, Purse $200.000, Grade 2 One Mile and 1/16th, Dirt for 3+
This is the conclusion of my race coverage at Monmouth today but this is a very nice race for dirt routing horses. There were 6 horses signed on but one of them has already scratched out. 4 out of the 5 left in are 4+ with the lone 3 year old drawn on the rail. Let’s take a look at the field:
1-Christmas Damsel (MB Stables)- Has won 4 out of 11 lifetime starts all of them going long on the dirt. He has had a busy 2015 so far starting 7 times this year winning 3 with 1 second. He started the year off on the derby trail but fell off a bit but did have a nice win in the Illinois Derby in April of 2015. Since that race he has run 3 times and has 1 win that came in his most recent start which was an OC race on the fourth of July. That win was by a nice 3 length margin. Since that race the public works have been very nice on this one, including a fast 6 furlong work 2 works back that was the fastest of 20 at Monmouth Park on July 23rd. Can he get back into the form he was in when he won the Illinois derby? It’s possible and his works appear to show he may be primed and ready to run.
2-Dubai Life (Joseph Racing)- Has won 4 of 10 lifetime starts while hitting the board in 8 out of the 10. He did not get a start in his racing career until halfway through his 3 year old year and that has proved to be a good decision, as since then he has worked his way through some of the classes. His shining moment so far came back in November 2014 where he won a nice Grade 2 race, the problem is this was on the turf not on dirt like today’s race. In fact every win except this horses maiden score have come on the turf. Current Owner Joseph Racing did not care about those previous turf runs and after he bought him at auction brought him back to the dirt in the only race he has run for him. The horse responded with a nice closing 2nd in an OC here at Monmouth where he lost by a head. Since that race he has been working well on the dirt which shows that he may be ready to fire a big race.
3-Expect (MB Stables)- This is a lightly raced 4 year old that made one start late in his 2 year old year and only 3 starts as a 3 year old with one being a maiden breaking score in September of 2014 and another being a 3rd place finish in a Grade 3 race. This year he has started 5 times with 2 wins and a 2nd place finish in those 5 starts. One the wins came in a state-bred allowance race and the other came in a state-bred overnight stakes race. Those races came 2 and 3 back respectively. Off that overnight stakes win he was then stepped up to Grade 2 Suburban Handicap where the horse just did not fire as hoped. This race does not appear to be the norm for him and he will be happy to get off the rail in this race. He has come out of the race well and has fired some nice public works that shows me he is ready to roll in this race. I say throw out the last race and keep your eye out on this one.
4-Victory Meal (Pumpkin Racing)- Has started 25 times in his racing career with 6 of those starts resulting in wins. This horse likes to keep good company in his running lines as he has run in some top paying races as of late. In 2015 he started off with a bang and won his first 2 starts, but has managed just 1 3rd in the next 3 starts. That is nothing to be ashamed of though as these were all in very tough races. The second start of 2015 saw him win a nice Grade 3 race which was his first ever graded stakes win. This horse has been a very nice and productive home-bred horse for Pumpkin Racing and to me appears to get a slight class break from what he has been running in. His public works since the last race show that he is on par with this group.
5-Blown And Left (Sanny Village-) Scratched
6-Teased (D J C Racing Stable)-Has won 5 out of 15 starts in his racing career however he has only won 1 out of 3 racing routing on dirt, and has missed the board in the other 2 routes. The positive the route win came in a Grade 3 race 2 races back, the negative the race was going a 1 turn mile at Belmont which some people consider similar to a sprint race. None the less this horse is in great form and has run great in his last 5 starts with 3 wins and 2 second place finishes. He has also had the lead at one point or another in each of these 5 races which tells me he is as sharp as you can get right now. The big question for me is how he will handle the 2 turns as the only time he has gone 2 turns was back in Jan 2014. He is fast and should be in front at some point in the race, the question is can his speed hold?
I really enjoy looking over the past performances and seeing a great field signed on where there are graded stakes winners everywhere you look. This is going to be a tough race here on Haskell day! Here is my prediction. 3-2-1-6
Warbucks
Categories: Grade II
