SUN Derby (Grade 3)- $800.000 Purse
SUN- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Eighth on the Dirt
March 26, 2017
The 7th running of the Grade 3 SUN Derby is shaping up to be an interesting race. After this weekend, there are only seven TC prep races left, and it could be a last chance for those who come up short in this race, though the AR Derby will be the last gasp on short rest for some, I assume. Though there will be many that view the AR Derby the same way. So here we are, in the SUN Derby with several horses not even having a single KYD point. The Force Awakens, with 10 points, has the most of anyone. After this race, someone is going to have 50-point boost, meaning out TC qualifying list is going to have an entry on it in the top 20 that no one is even thinking about right now. Should The Force Awakens, Banshee Star, or Winged Feeney finish second, then this race could potentially send two to the KYD that are not on the radar at this point. That makes this race fascinating, and when you look at the field, there is no clear favorite. There are several in here that can get those fifty points. It is going to be exciting, enjoy the race! Here is our full field of 14.
#1- Pain (Smokey Stover, ridden by R Bejarano)- This is one of the top horses to watch in this race, and gets to start from the rail as well. The question is whether or not he can take his turf form, which saw a victory in the always tough Grade 3 Bourbon last fall and allowed him to participate in the BC Juvenile Turf. That race, the first under the guidance of Smokey Stover following a sale for $650.000, did not go according to plan. He is out of the same mare as is Slither, who starred for me for a while, and ran third in the Grade 2 at OP last week. Smokey Stover is still looking for his first win with Pain, and you have to like how circumstances line up for him here. He is working very well and seems to be the one to beat here.
#2- Danzig On The Rocks (Mb Stables, ridden by M E Smith)- Despite some great workout times, this horse was underachieving quite a bit for former trainer Yankee Doodle Stable. That one opted to send him to the March auction, and it caught the attention of many when Mb Stables was the one to be the winning bidder, for $399.000. The new trainer introduced himself to the horse with a snip, so now we will see if a geld will get Danzig On The Rocks to start racing as good as he works. If he wins, geld an underachiever in your stable in appreciation.
#3- Winged Feeney (Four Winds Racing, ridden by C S Nakatani)- One of only a couple in this field who actually has KYD points heading into the race. Winged Feeney has four so far. Those points came in his last start, when he made his graded debut in the El Camino, and finished second. Prior to that, he had been a mainstay on the PA-bred circuit, but even there was seen in maiden claimers as late as August. Four Winds Racing resurrected his career after buying him for $15.010 in the December auction. He seems ready to go, and I liked how he worked at SA about a month ago. To win, he’s going to need to be at his best and nothing less, but opposing jockeys will want to be looking over their shoulders to see where this closer is during the stretch.
#4- The Force Awakens (Diablo Diablo, ridden by R J Albarado)- If I were the owner, I would be thrilled with the opportunity that I had for The Force Awakens here. His 10 KYD points to this point will not get him near the KYD, but he has been on the cusp of earning points in his last two races, most notably the Holy Bull in early February. To his credit, the trainer has been very patient with his Condottieri colt, and he is going to be rewarded here. My thought is that as long as The Force Awakens runs his race, he should be in a position to get in the top three, which should allow him to crack the 20, at least, as long as the April races do not completely go against him. A win here would be huge, of course, and all the numbers point to him being one of the primary horses to beat.
#5- Psychic Ability (Mb Stables, ridden by J R Velazquez)- This colt by Dig Deep has been very consistent, hitting the board in all but one of his eight career starts, and three of those races were win. He knows the track, having raced here in the Allison Derby in January, then winning the Mine That Bird a month later. Both are ungraded stakes, so he steps up to this level for the first time, and appears to a horse getting better and better. His work times are impressive, and if he comes up short, I would not be surprised if he gets a snip like his stablemate Danzig On The Rocks has undergone.
#6- Major Wiener (Night Rider Stables, ridden by R Maragh)- Unfortunately for the trainer, it took Major Wiener a little too long to break his maiden, needing seven starts to do so. He was consistent within that time, and it did seem likely that he would be stake bound once he did. After the win, he went right to the Grade 2 Risen Star at FG last month, but was unable to be anywhere near the front. This will be a pivotal race, and the time is now for him to have a chance to make the KYD. In the long run though, I sense Major Wiener will develop into a second tier type of horse, not quite able to run with the best, but to win smaller graded stakes.
#7- Towering Above (Mb Stables, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- I made the mistake of immediately looking at his 89 SRF from the last race and almost falling into the trap that such a figure will never get it done. Towering Above has never seemed to get that big SRF number, but he has been winning, and I think that last race was a much more impressive performance then that figure implies. It was simply an optional claimer at GG, but he closed well there in what seems to be a good time for the track. If horses could read the past performances, Towering Above would certainly have plenty of motivation. He’s going to contend here!
#8- Banshee Star (Joseph Racing, ridden by J L Ortiz)- This gelding by Star Admiral has six KYD points coming into the race, earning them in his last start when he ran second in the Grade 3 Southwest at OP last month. That is an appealing race, given his 99 SRF earned and that everything seemed to go his way. I am a little concerned. However, about his only having one win and one place in seven career starts. The ability is there, but he seems to be inconsistent. He has yet to put together back to back strong performances. This is the time to start.
#9- Sea Bird 11 (Blushing Meadows, ridden by K J Desormeaux)- Like Towering Above, Sea Bird 11 is coming off a strong performance that has an SRF figure associated with it that seems too low. This will be his graded stake debut, and he has only raced in an ungraded stake once, that being the Pasco Stakes at TAM, when he was third in a four-way photo for the win. After that race, the trainer brought him to SA for that aforementioned race, a CA-bred optional claimer. He was brought along patiently as a two year old by Blushing Meadows, and may be peaking at the right time.
#10- Bronx Bomber (Aer Stables, ridden by J Alvarado)- If nothing else, this horse should get you ready for baseball season, and if Bronx Bomber could make it to the third jewel of the triple crown, he may be a favorite by name alone. He has to get there first, making victory here essential. Unfortunately, he has been more Ellsbury inconsistent then Jeter consistent, with one good looking victory in the $150.000 NY-bred Great White Way being sandwiched between four finishes of fifth and worse. The last two were tough assignments in the Lewis and the Risen Star, but if he wants to make the KYD, he has to make contact against those who run in races like that, and not strike out.
#11- Red Panther (John Henry, ridden by G Franco)- This one has a lot in common with Bronx Bomber in that they have been unable to step up their game against better competition, despite showing the potential to do so in other races. For Red Panther, he has been here at SUN for the last two, just like Psychic Ability. While Psychic Ability was third in the Allison and winning the Mine That Bird, Red Panther was seventh and fourth, respectively, losing each by three. He was also a non-factor in the Jerome at AQU before that. The time is now to show us all that he belongs in the KYD.
#12- Dixieland Force (Aer Stables, ridden by F Prat)- Another one in this field who fits the mold of a horse getting a last gasp effort to qualify for the KYD. So far, Dixieland Force has won only once in his seven race career, but at the same time, he’s hit the board in five of them. We know, then, that he can near the front, but he did not step up well to this level before in the Grade 3 Remsen. A lot of time has passed since then, including him going through the December auction and joining Aer Stables for $51.010. He’ll be one of the longer shots on the board in this race.
#13- Haynes Away (Stone Creek Farm, ridden by J Talamo)- The trainer seeks their first career stake win of any sort with this pickup in this recent March auction from Ollieland from $47.010. Stone Creek liked what they saw, and less then a week after the purchase, put him right here in the SUN Derby. What is interesting to watch is that he is only sprinted in his career, so the trainer is banking on him being able to stretch out without a problem. His mile works, with Ollieland exclusively, would point to him being a tick slow for this, but then in his first work with Stone Creek, he dropped a couple tenths on a six furlong work, so if he can do that on a mile as well, that may be all he needs to do. Intriguing.
#14- Shrek (Crocker Ggs, ridden by J R Leparoux)- The unlikely winner of post 14 would have been one of the longshots regardless of post position. Shrek has only raced four times, and the first three were at modest tracks. After breaking his maiden, Shrek made a strong leap to the Grade 3 Withers, and was 10th, beaten by over a second and a half. His work leading up to this race is identical to the work prior to the Withers, so I am thinking its more of the same here unless the Withers was a fluke for some reason. Only the trainer knows that. Like everyone else, the trainer also knows that the time is now to take a chance to get where everyone wants to be on the first Saturday in May.
Prediction: 1-4-8-5
— NS
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
