5/7/2022
12 CD THE KYD (GI)
$3,000.000 3YO 1 1/4 mile Dirt (Main Track) Weight 126lbs Fillies 121lbs
What appeared to be “Girls Just Wanna Have Fun” turned into “Men Men Men MEN!!”… so the over-hype of twenty eight fillies making it to the 2022 KYD (GI) was just that… over. When we look at the field for this historic event, only Shadow Police was given the chance to represent the ladies, but the gate will be full of the best sophomores in the land, regardless of how any of these identify.
Looking at the field, I landed on Ocean Of Wisdom as my top selection. I just have to believe that he is the one horse that has proven that a mile and a quarter is not just obtainable, but in his wheel-house. Not that there were every any doubts of his fondness for a route of ground, but that win in the LA Derby (GII) solidifies it for me. Could traffic get him? Sure… but he usually finds his way around, over or through it, and I think he takes home the roses.
Another that deserves a big look is right next door, Everymanforhimself. It seems that every year, there’s a horse that when I pick them, they run poorly, and when I ignore them, they run off of the charts, and he’s been it for me this year. As a polar opposite to the top selection, I expect this one to be wingin’ it on the front end and it’s just a matter of how far can he go?
It a move I’ll probably regret, I’m going to stay in the outside post positions and put Mickey on my tickets. He’s won four of his five recent starts, three of those graded races, he wins on turf, dirt… run it in the parking lot and this one is in the picture. He also has the tactical speed to stay close, yet he doesn’t have to get involved in any type of speed duel… he’s just an honest, hard knocking type and I think he will be in the picture late.
I love Mr Pancake if it rains, and showers are in the forecast… the filly certainly deserves serious consideration after beating the boys a couple of times… and sure, you can make a case for any or all of these… you don’t get here by running for $4.000 claimer at MNR… this is the best of the three year olds and you must tip your cap to each of the trainers and entrants. This is guaranteed to be one hell of a show. Again, congrats to everyone in the gate, their owners, breeders… this is what it’s all about.
Here’s the Field for the 2022 KYD…
OUR ODDS 8/1
BIGGEST RACES
Won the CT Futurity and DMR Futurity (GI) as a 2yo, and the Wood Memorial in his most recent trip to the starting gate
OWNERSHIP
Fractious purchased this one prior to that Wood Mem win for $350.000, so they certainly saw something they liked off of the poor pair of performances prior to the purchase.
COMMENTS
I like that the horse as he won at first asking for the barn, but one has to wonder if the muddy surface played into that big victory. Note that his only G1 win, at DMR, was on a fast track, so perhaps that played nothing into it. Either way, the rail can be a tough place to be in this large field, so he will need his absolute best and some luck.
OUR ODDS 20/1
BIGGEST RACES
Won the Gun Runner to close out his 2yo season and the TAM Derby (GII)
OWNERSHIP
Alydar Stables purchased this one after that Gun Runner win. He was sold by his breeder, then again after two successful starts.
COMMENTS
He’s been a mixed bag where he’s either right in the middle of things or seems to leave his best in the barn some of the time. Third in the Davis (GII) before that TAM Derby win, but was 9th in the Wood Memorial, so he’s going to have to improve from that start.
OUR ODDS 20/1 (wet track, dramatically less)
BIGGEST RACES
Won the NYSS Great White Way and the FLA Derby (GI) – both on wet tracks
OWNERSHIP
This is a NY homebred for Arindel and of his three wins, two (both stakes) have come on wet surfaces. He’s part of a three horse entry, so they have the wet-track hope in this one.
COMMENTS I’ve probably said it too may times, but I think they are hoping for rain with this one, and that 83% on Friday and 32% on Saturday (depending on when you looked), it could go his way.
OUR ODDS 8/1
BIGGEST RACES
Won the Ruby Stakes (GIII)
OWNERSHIP
Broken Spoke Stables has a pair in here today and they’ve done a great job getting this one in the gate with only five starts.
COMMENTS
That was a big win in the Ruby Stakes (GIII) and he looked good when 3rd in the Gothan (GIII) prior to that. He’s lightly raced, but looks to be liking things as the distance gets longer, so if the traffic doesn’t harm him, he could be in the thick of it down the stretch.
OUR ODDS 10/1
BIGGEST RACES
He’s still looking for his first stakes score but had the lead into the lane in the SA Derby (GI) before getting caught late in that one.
OWNERSHIP
Second part of the Arindel coupling (with one waiting on the AE list) and they paid a pretty penny for this one, so you know they like him.
COMMENTS
Don’t be fooled by the fact that this one doesn’t have a stakes win. That was a big run at SA and with only five starts, he could improve in a big way here today. The distance also seem to be something he will like.
OUR ODDS 12/1
BIGGEST RACES
Won the SA Derby (GI)
OWNERSHIP
Gdp Inc continues to impress with another superstar.
COMMENTS
Broke maiden in his fifth start then shook up the world with that big win in the SA Derby (GI). I didn’t see that one coming and neither did the betting public, as he was dispatched at 33/1 odds. I don’t think you get that today… people are watching this one.
OUR ODDS 15/1
BIGGEST RACES
Won The Fountain of Youth (GII) and also a FLA-bred stakes as a 2yo.
OWNERSHIP
Second part of the Broken Spoke Stables couple and has been consistent sans the wet track start..
COMMENTS
Not a bad race out of this one until it rained in Hallandale for the FLA Derby (GI) and that certainly didn’t sit right with this one. As much as the three horse wants it to rain, this one is probably hoping that it doesn’t.
OUR ODDS 6/1
BIGGEST RACES
Won the Pasco at TAM and the Risen Star (GII) at FG)
OWNERSHIP
If you like to cheer for the little guy, this is your barn. Only in his third season as a trainer and this one delivered his only graded stakes win to date, but this could be a place to move into the spot-light.
COMMENTS
As mentioned, his Risen Star (GII) win is the barns only graded win, but this gelding is very consistent, has a dynamic running style and could be an a horse ready to burst onto the scene.
OUR ODDS 9/2
BIGGEST RACES
Won the Speakeasy Stakes as a 2yo and the BG Stakes (GI) at KEE in his most recent, with a slew of other placings vs. graded horses
OWNERSHIP
D J C Racing Stables has a pair of nice horses in this big big race.
COMMENTS
That BG Stakes (GI) win certainly was what the doctor ordered as he had a bunch of seconds/thirds/you get the idea and that victory came at the right time. He closed well in the LA Derby (GII) going a mile and three sixteenths, so the distance could be to his liking as well. I think he’s got a big shot today.
OUR ODDS 8/1
BIGGEST RACES
Won the LA Futurity (GII) but has done a great job of being around when they hand out checks in just about every start.
OWNERSHIP
Smokey Stover is always a threat in any race, .
COMMENTS
That was a big win in the Ruby Stakes (GIII) and he looked good when 3rd in the Gothan (GIII) prior to that. He’s lightly raced, but looks to be liking things as the distance gets longer, so if the traffic doesn’t harm him, he could be in the thick of it down the stretch.
OUR ODDS 20/1
BIGGEST RACES
MSW at AQU
OWNERSHIP
D J C Racing Stables has a second entrant, but I think there better chance is with the other half of this pair.
COMMENTS
Only a MSW win vs. NY bred types, so he’s going to be up against it today. He did close to be second in the Wood Memorial, coming from far back on a muddy surface, and I’d have to think they want rain, like a couple others. If it is wet, he could be a bigger factor.
OUR ODDS 9/2
BIGGEST RACES
Back to back wins in the Jerome and Withers (GIII) but a couple of seconds as a 2yo may have been just as important.
OWNERSHIP
First of the two South Shore Stables coupling, and he’s been a hand-full, just about every time he’s gone to the gate.
COMMENTS
He just missed in the BC Juv (GI) and was the runner-up in the FLA Derby (GI) so he runs big in big races. Add in those back to back stakes wins at AQU and you know you have a solid competitor with this one. I like him a lot.
OUR ODDS 4/1
BIGGEST RACES
Back to back wins in the Nashua (GIII) and Remsen (GII) where he won four of six as a freshman, then took the Gotham (GIII) from his three sophomore races.
OWNERSHIP
We finally get to our first Mb Stables starter as he catches the 13, 15 and 17 post positions. Still, you cannot ignore his horses.
COMMENTS
A win in the Gotham and a pair of sixth place finishes is probably not the year that the big stable was hoping for with this one, after winning four of six as a freshman. Still, he’s a rea nice horse and you have to keep an eye on this trainer, after all, he’s the defending champ.
OUR ODDS 7/2
BIGGEST RACES
He closes like a freight train and used that style to take the Southwest (GIII) and more importantly the LA Derby (GII) and that mile and three-sixteenths win certainly makes him stand out.
OWNERSHIP
Nakamura has a single entry here today, but this one should be fear into everyone.
COMMENTS
I think he should go off the favorite today, winning two of three as a sophomore and I repeat, that LA Derby (GII) win sure does get your attention. It looks like traffic is the one thing that you have to worry about, but I think he makes a big big move.
OUR ODDS 9/2
BIGGEST RACES
He seems to run 1/2 in every start, but his seconds in the Risen Star (GII) and LA Derby (GI) certainly make him dangerous.
OWNERSHIP
The second of three from the big barn and perhaps his bet opportunity. I know he hasn’t won a stakes this year, but something tells me…
COMMENTS
You have to think this one is about as due for a win as you could want a horse to be. Speed is the name of the game and I think you will see him on or near the lead again today. I just think he’s due for a big run and we all know this trainer produces when the big bucks are on the line.
OUR ODDS 7/2
BIGGEST RACES
She beat the boys in the Lecomte (GIII) and Rebel (GII), then just missed int he ARK Derby (GI)
OWNERSHIP
We all know Smokey Stover is a top-notch conditioner and his horses are always a danger… don’t be fooled by the polite girl thing. She’s dangerous.
COMMENTS
Now we all know I’m no fan of the girls vs. boys thing, but this filly can flat out get it. She’s beat the boys twice in graded races and just missed in the other. She showed a bit more speed last out, and that may have been a bad move – let’s see if she’s a bit more patient today, and if so, it could be a Kodak moment.
OUR ODDS 12/1
BIGGEST RACES
He won the SUN Derby (GIII) last out to stamp his ticket to this race, and with only five starts, watch him.
OWNERSHIP
What hasn’t been said about Mb Stables? They just don’t get any better and he has a dangerous dangerous horse with this one.
COMMENTS
He’s won two of three since Mb plunked down $300.000 for this one, and the other was a second in the Rebel (GII). I think there may be some questions, but he just keeps putting up answers, and they are the right answers. I put him at longer odds than he probably deserves, and I may live to regret it.
OUR ODDS 12/1
BIGGEST RACES
He’s still looking for his first ’22 win, but was second in the Ruby Stakes (GIII) (DH) and the Lexington (GIII), so he may be coming back into form at just the right time.
OWNERSHIP
Mo Mentum Farm is sitting on a nice horse here, and is willing to sell his soul to the devil to get his AE into the field. He’s been on a bit of a hot streak, and may feel that this is his year to bring home a big trophy.
COMMENTS
Things were looking bleak for this one after going 6-9-6 vs graded stakes types, but turned it around in those last two starts and looks to be in the best form of his life. He will probably have some odds, and does have a chance of making some noise down the lane.
OUR ODDS 7/2
BIGGEST RACES
He’s won three races this season including the Gotham (GIII) (DH) and ARK Derby (GI) after being switched off of the grass.
OWNERSHIP
Another for South Shore Stables and they may have the horse with the hottest hand right now. Four wins in his last five starts… yeah, that’s hot.
COMMENTS
I love that he has the ability to sit mid-pack or move up a bit closer, if needed, and his style just screams winner, winner… order what ever you want for dinner. He’s also been ignored at the betting windows, but I don’t think they will skip him here.
OUR ODDS 5/1
BIGGEST RACES
BC Jub (GI) winner, won San Felipe (GII) last out.
OWNERSHIP
Another from the Fractious outfit and they plunked down $650.000 to secure this one after his San Felipe (GII) win.
COMMENTS
My “BC Curse” has been alive and well for years, but this one could finally break the voodoo and make it a thing of folklore. That was a nice late kick in his most recent, so it will be interesting how the new barn directs the jock today. Obviously, he’s a late threat.
COZMAN Picks 14 / 15 / 19
Scotty 15 / 14 / 8
Willies Green Card 8 / 14 / 4
Categories: FEATURED STORIES, Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, TC 2021-2023, THE TRIPLE CROWN
