The KYD (Grade 1)- $2,000.000 Purse

CD- For Three Year Olds

One Mile and One Quarter on the Dirt

May 7, 2016

It’s that moment we were all dreaming about when we were creating yearlings in the fall of 2014, or when we were selling two year olds last year.  It’s the reason most of us were repeatedly checking the KYD Point leaderboard for months and months, figuring out how we will get our best horse or horses to the big race.  There is no single race that has the prestige of the KYD.  The chase for the Triple Crown begins now.  We saw it finally happen in the real world last year, and now we wonder if we will ever it see in our own virtual world.  There’s a large bonus that the game promotes, after all.  Will we see a Triple Crown winner here, this year?  If you ask around the game, pretty much anyone will tell you that it is unlikely, simply because of how close our best horses seem to be.  Post positions, trips, and flat out luck play a great role in our results, more then they may in the real world.  But it was almost done.  In 2010, Five Fives only missed by a nose when Mrs Bombastic stole the show in the PRK that season.  Maybe that should have been the year.  This year, we have many great horses, and because of that fact, the likelihood of one horse taking all three races seems small.  If all of that was not challenging enough, the added distance to a mile and a quarter, and the carrying of 126 pounds raises the bar of difficulty and unpredictability up a couple more notches.

Dreaming that you can overcome those long odds is part of the fun, and why the KYD is so special.  Large stables and small stables come together to form our field of 20 for this race, as they do every year.  Past winners of this race show that it doesn’t matter which end of the spectrum you are on when it comes to successes elsewhere in the game.   For every powerful stable like Mb Stables or Sanny Village that has won the race, you have your Wild Aces Stables and Malettos as well.   That’s what makes this race great!  For the winner, the dreams of the Triple Crown will begin, and last for at least two weeks.

No trainer has won this race more then once, another eye opening fact.  There are only two trainers with an entry here that could be the first to achieve that: Eastern Equine and Mb Stables.  K J Desormeaux is the only jockey to have won the race more then once, and he has done so three times.   There are indeed some very good trainers and very good jockeys that are not yet on that list of past winners.  The fastest edition of the KYD came in 2012 with Cryptomagic winning in a time of 2:00.56.   Many may think that this year will break that record.   As for the elements, rain is not expected to be a factor, with just a 20% chance.   Here is our field!  Enjoy the race, and if you have an entry: good luck!

#1- Water Mummy (Downwind Stables, ridden by G L Stevens)- Starting on the rail for the KYD, both virtual or real world, never seems to work out.  Water Mummy would love to make it happen, but he does look like one of the longer shots in the field.  He finished 18th in KYD points, with a third place finish in the Wood Memorial in April going a long way to getting him here.   In his career so far, he has won three of 11, but none of those wins have come this year.  His big score came in September last year, winning the Grade 1 DMR Futurity, which is a seven furlong race.  It seems as though Water Mummy will be at his best in races going about a mile, rather then stretching out to this distance.   His last two races have seen him get beaten in the ninth furlong.  Though I have to wonder if we’ll see a tactical change up here more like he ran in the BC Juvenile, when he came from well off the pace to finish fourth.  If Downwind’s other entry, Missing in Action, does go to the lead, the trainer may look to have Water Mummy come from off the pace.
Projected Odds: 30/1

#2- Compress (Cherrytree Hill Farm, ridden by V Espinoza)- The FL Derby was the most difficult of any of the prep races this year.   There are five in this field who ran in that race, and there are a couple others who may be watching the race back in their stalls this weekend who would have been here if they had a better run the FL Derby.  The winner that day, was Compress.  Heading into that race, we already knew that Compress was a great horse and one of the better KYD contenders.  After that win, he may have made himself the favorite.  It was not just that he won the race, it was the way that he did.  Up to that point, he had won four out of five races by coming from off the pace.  In the FL Derby, Compress did not mess around, went right to the lead, and never looked back.   He had to hold off a strong late bid by Ned Isakoff, and that one will certainly like the fact that he has an extra furlong here, but don’t think for a moment that Compress won’t be able to get this distance, either.  He’s done everything that Cherrytree Hill has asked him to do so far, and has done it in impressive fashion.  Many will be putting money down on him here.
Projected Odds: 5/2, Probable post-time favorite.

#3- Moment Of Madness (Mb Stables, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- A win in the Grade 2 Risen Star at FG helped get Moment Of Madness to the big race.  He still may be finding his way with just five races under his belt, three of which ended up with him going to the winner’s circle.   He is most recently coming out of the LA Derby, and his race there can fairly be described as flat.  In that event, he did run against a few that he will see here again, including stablemate Cliffs of Moher, who won that race.  What I really like about his are some of his recent works, both a mile work at AQU on the 18th of April, and his most recent bullet work at PRX at six furlongs.  It should be mentioned, too, that Mb Stables had to choose three out of a potential five qualifiers for this race, so he believes in this colt.
Projected Odds: 15/1

#4- What A Guarantee (Blushing Meadows, ridden by M E Smith)- This colt by What A Rush has the attention of quite a few after a powerful close in the Grade 3 SUN Derby, going from 10th to the win in the final three furlongs of the race.   So the question will be how much we want to read into that.  This could potentially be a race with a lot of early speed, though that’s always difficult to predict, and probably moreso in this race, but that speed may be there and What A Guarantee could capitalize.  It may also be possible that this colt has been craving these longer distance that the TC will provide to him, and that could see him play the role of spoiler.  He has been nicely consistent so far, winning two of four starts, with the non-wins seeing him finish second. M E Smith has become his regular rider, and with him aboard again that will only help matters.  The only guarantee I have concerning him is that he’ll be having other trainers checking on where he is what its time for the stretch run.
Projected Odds: 8/1

#5- Copper Opus (Big Guns Stables, ridden by Mar Garcia)- The Broomstick Opus colt only participated in one prep race for the KYD, and that was a second place finish in the Grade 1 AR Derby.  To get the win, he beat several good horses including the likes Fearful, a victim of the numbers game for Mb Stables.  The only one he could not beat was his fellow Copper rival, Copper Beast, and there’s no shame in that.   Now that these races start being long enough for Copper Opus, we can expect to see more from him.  Like What A Guarantee, he came from well off the pace to get his runner up finish.  Comparing the close of each of them, What A Guarantee comes out ahead, but both of them will need to be watched in the stretch and it will likely be a matter of which one is in the right lane at the right time.
Projected Odds: 10/1

#6- The Perfect Day (Pan Farms, ridden by R A Baze)- You can’t look at The Perfect Day without mentioning the $1,350.000 purchase price involved to send him from Australia Wide to Pan Farms.  So, now with that out of the way, The Perfect Day comes into this race with just one race with his current trainer, and it ended up being a good one as he finished second to Dial It In in the Grade 1 SA Derby.  We will not see that winner in this race, however.   Ever since he was gelded just a couple days before New Years, The Perfect Day has been seeing perfect results. A win in the $250.000 CA Cup Derby was the start of it, and then he was best in the Grade 2 San Felipe at SA.  That is his signature race because it was there where he faced his toughest competition, including the likes of the Spring Lover and Atomic Twister (the latter known as something else on race day).   He looks like he wants to come from behind as well, but I’m not sure he’s the best choice among the closers here.
Projected Odds: 5/1

#7- Atomic Twister (Blushing Meadows, ridden by J Alvarado)- Most of us know this horse with its middle name included, and it is a shame that there had to be a name change on this so late in the game, coming after his impressive win in the Wood Memorial.   Up until that race, he had raced against the best, and had been within a length of victory in several different races, including the BC Juvenile, but he still had been looking for that win in a non-maiden race.  It was inevitable and it finally came at AQU in his most recent start.   He likes to close as well, but he does not seem to want to come from as far back as the trainer’s other entry, and I like that about Atomic Twister here.  It appears as though he will like the longer distance even if that goes against his conformation a little bit.  Alvarado has been aboard in his better efforts, as well. No matter what we call him, Atomic Twister is one of the top threats in this race.
Projected Odds: 6/1  

#8- Ned Isakoff (Jerry Garcia Racing, ridden by J J Castellano)- May this finally be the year? No, we’re not talking about a certain baseball team winning the World Series, but how about for a trainer who saddled a horse in our very first KYD, but never one the big one? There are many reasons to like Ned Isakoff, the first of which is his successful bloodlines.  Every year it seems like a given that there is an Il Miglio Fabro foal in this race, and the Die Laffin bloodline, which is on his dam side has been very successful in this race in the past.  He is coming out of that powerful FL Derby, and was the only one to get anywhere near Compress.  If he has just a little more race track, that race is his, and today he gets another furlong to do it.  A stalking trip or being just off the lead early may be the ideal strategy for this race, and that suits Ned Isakoff very well.  J J Castellano knows everything there is to know about this horse as well.
Projected Odds: 9/2

#9- Rising Light (Nakamura Stables, ridden by J J Hernandez)- Part of the Die Laffin line himself, Rising Light’s career really got started in the right direction after he was gelded shortly after the new year.  He had been good, but in his first race after the geld, he showed that he may be something special in winning the Grade 3 El Camino over a couple who, at the time, seemed like automatics to be here but they never made it.   In his next race, the Grade 2 Rebel at OP, Rising Light was beaten only by Fearful, who would be here if not a casualty of the numbers game for entries his trainer could have.  Most recently, he ran in the SA Derby and ran well but beaten by a couple he sees today.  His works are terrific, showing that he has the ability to run a big one, but I am tempted to look elsewhere here. This post has been a little unlikely in past KYD’s, having never hit the board in the game’s history.
Projected Odds: 25/1

#10- Copper Beast (Pan Farms, ridden by R Alvarado Jr)- The other horse that Pan Farms purchased on March 18th got a lot more publicity that day, but picking up Copper Beast as well from Australia Wide may have made that the perfect day for Pan Farms. Copper Beast “only” sold for $250.000 that day.  Heading into the AR Derby, he had never run in a graded race before, but this is clearly a horse that was wishing races would not end so soon.  There is a lot to like about the way he came from behind in that race, but I am not going to be as quick to say that he is the better of Pan’s two entries in the stretch.  Surely though, we’ll need to be watching for him in the stretch, and it is all about whether he gets room to run.  His sire, Copper Bottom (also part of that Die Laffin bloodline) was no stranger to getting longer distances either.
Projected Odds: 8/1

#11- Dogs Got Wings (Grimley, ridden by M Franco)- While so many ran in the FL Derby, Dogs Got Wings was one of two that day who went to the Grade 3 Spiral at TP instead in hopes of picking up the necessary KYD points to get here, and it’s a decision that paid off for both.  Dogs Got Wings was impressive in that race, jumping out to big lead of about two to three lengths, and never conceded any ground to his rivals.    That was the first race for the gelding with Grimley, and the first time that he had been sent to the front so aggressively.  Under former trainer Downwind Stables, the Dogs Bachelor Party foal had a very good two year old campaign, but it looked like things might be tailing off before he won the Spiral for Grimley.   It would be a surprise to see him to do anything but go to the front in this race.  He figures to have more company up there this time around.
Projected Odds: 12/1

#12- Palestinian (Nakamura Stables, ridden by K J Desormeux)- This was one of the best horses in the game as a two year old, winning six out of seven races.  During that streak, the trainer opted more for the NY-bred scene and ungraded stakes instead of chasing a berth in the BC Juvenile, and it paid off with those wins.  In January of this year, he would make his graded debut in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes, and the result would again see him go to the winners circle.  Nakamura Stables has done very well to gradually stretch him out this year, leading to a couple of good results.  In late February, he would be third in the Fountain of Youth, topping a few that he sees again here, while ironically not seeing the two that finished in front of him.  Then, last month, he was part of that way too good FL Derby, and while he never threatened Compress or Ned Isakoff, his third place finish there cannot be taken lightly.  If you liked Palestinian as a two year old, nothing has really changed this year, and is still one of the best in the game.  A couple of others may have simply come a little more “here and now” and Palestinian may be getting lost in the shuffle.  He should be one of the favorites, but probably won’t be.
Projected Odds: 10/1

#13- Phooeys Ideal (Nynl Stables, ridden by K Carmouche)- Most likely, you will be inclined to bet #13 in the real derby as opposed to throwing a bunch of support behind Phooeys Ideal.  After all, this Hong Kong Phooey colt still only has one career win to his credit.  It has been a plethora of second place finishes that has earned his trip here, including in the BC Juvenile.  With Carneyman not likely to run (he is an also eligible), we chalk another one up to the Juvenile jinx and Phooeys Ideal becomes the best finisher there to make it here.  Overall, he has finished second in four of his last six races, including his most recent performance, the Grade 3 Spiral where he was beaten by Dogs Got Wings, but showed a lot of heart to hold off a bunch of challengers in the stretch.   That race just got him into this race as one of the last qualifiers, and naturally the trainer, who also happens to be writing this sentence, is thrilled to be a part of the race.  Don’t rule out his consistent nature and possibly surprising with a piece of the earnings at the end.
Projected Odds: 50/1

#14- Missing In Action (Downwind Stables, ridden by J R Leparoux)- The trainer may have given us the most exciting moment of the prep race season when he called his shot in the days leading up to the Grade 3 Gotham.  He declared that Missing In Action would be fired out to the lead, and did exactly that, and it resulted in a victory.  That win put an end to a string of seconds that he had in the DED Jackpot, LA Futurity, and the Withers.  Most recently, he was part of the FL Derby field and ended up only being able to muster a 7th place finish, and that result may have put him on the back burner as far as those being most talked about now.  He may be fine with the distance, but does he want to go ten furlongs while on the lead, or is he better off going back to his style of coming from off the pace.  That gives Downwind Stables a tough decision for this one.
Projected Odds: 10/1

#15- Champagne Supernova (Eastern Equine, ridden by R Bejarano)- I really wanted to write his preview using a ton of lyrics from the Oasis song that I cannot get out of my head whenever I see his name, but I’ll digress.  Like Palestinian, Champagne Supernova was one the best in the game as a two year old, winning five out of six races, including two wins in the always difficult FL Sire Series.  He followed those up with an impressive win in the DED Jackpot, and finished the year by winning the LA Futurity.  At the time, you would commonly see him talked about as being a top KYD threat.  But here we are now, and Champagne Supernova might be lost in the shuffle a little bit.  He has raced just twice this year, and while the Southwest was a disappointment, all good horses will have a race like that.  The colt bounced back nicely in the LA Derby and should have restored all the confidence those had in him before.  If he were to win, it would be the second such victory for the trainer and would finally get Bejarano on the winners board.  Where will you be, if he wins?
Projected Odds: 12/1

#16- Snowmizer (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by J L Ortiz)- After having several KYD contenders come up short in the prep races, D J C Racing Stables looked like he would be on the outside on Derby day.  That was not good enough for the trainer, and in order to get into the field, he made a huge purchase, acquiring Snowmizer from Sarah Stables on the 27th of April for $1,250.000.  It is a long term investment, and we can count on D J C getting everything he possibly can out of Snowmizer long after this race is over.   This colt has been very consistent, and we will throw out his performance in the BC Juvenile.  He particularly caught my attention in the Grade 2 Gotham, where a lot seemed to be working against him until he found a hole late and made an impressive close to get the runner up finish.   Most recently, he was again second, this time in the Wood Memorial.  Snowmizer and D J C might need a race together, and I am a little more inclined to like him in the BEL next month, if entered.  He’s going to love to go longer and longer.
Projected Odds: 10/1

#17- Blue Guy (Grimley, ridden by E Cancel)- This March, Blue Guy went to the TAM Derby, and picked himself up a win.  Thanks to that result, he earned himself a berth in this field.  Naturally, that is what the trainer is hoping to repeat here, but it is worth noting that there is not another runner from that race competing in the KYD this weekend.  That win is also between a pair of disappointing finishes, where he was six lengths back in both the Grade 3 El Camino, placing 9th, and then 10th in the strong FL Derby.  This race will be much like the FL Derby was, and even a little better.  Blue Guy is simply an inconsistent horse, and I usually shy away from this type when making my picks.  Getting this outside post will not help, either.
Projected Odds: 50/1

#18- Spring Lover (Mb Stables, ridden by R J Albarado)- If you have read this far, you have heard a lot about some of the closers that may be coming from well off the pace in this one.  Well, Spring Lover may be the deepest closer out of all of them.  In his last two races, it seems as though the Proud Chai colt came from the parking lot to win or nearly win.  At the San Felipe at SA this March, Spring Lover was dead last and seven lengths out of it at six furlongs.  In the stretch, he made up all that distance to the leaders at the time, but missed out to another who came from off the pace that was a little closer to the front, in The Perfect Day. A similar performance was witnessed last month in the BG Stakes, and this time, he was the winner.  There is no denying that he is going to be charging at the end, and will like going this distance.  The question is, how far behind the others with the same strategy in mind, will Spring Lover be? It is a race that may very well set up nicely for the closers.  I like Spring Lover much more in the BEL.
Projected Odds: 8/1

#19- Coup de Lyon (Nakamura Stables, ridden by J Talamo)- The Knowledge Geek gelding was the last one from the KYD point leaderboard to find his way into the race.   He was at his best over the winter months, with a pair of wins and a pair of places over a four race stretch that included the Grade 2 Nashua, and then the Grade 3 Southwest at OP.  In the latter race, he showed uncanny resiliency in being on the lead, then dropping back, then being resurgent in the stretch to get up and win the race.  That is a very nice trait.  Following that, he placed third in the LA Derby before a head scratcher of a race in Wood Memorial, where he was 13th out of 14. That result will have people looking at others in this race, but if the trainer knows why that happened, and can fix it easily, then he may light up the board here.
Projected Odds: 40/1

#20- Cliffs Of Moher (Mb Stables, ridden by J R Velazquez)- Any horse that starts from this post position will have the biggest question being whether or not they can overcome it first, rather then if they simply have the ability to win the race.  We know that Cliffs of Moher has that ability, being one of the leaders on the KYD point leaderboard, thanks in large part to winning a pretty strong LA Derby in March.  With that win, he was been to the winners circle in four out of five races, though that has been his only success at the Graded level so far.  An effort in the Grade 3 Jerome was the aberration in that four of five streak.  His style suits the race nicely, as while he will not be on the lead, he does not have to come from way out of it like Spring Lover might prefer, and as such I like him a little better then his stablemate.  So now the question: Post 20.  Can it be done? Fusion says yes.
Projected Odds: 12/1

My Prediction: (other predictions at end)
– I see a few going out to the lead early: (in order of post position): Compress, Dogs Got Wings, and Missing In Action.  Champagne Supernova may tuck in there right behind, perhaps with some company from Palestinian and Phooeys Ideal.  If this happens, we will see several from double digit posts crossing over joining Compress and taking up lanes that closers may want later.  Just how fast these frontrunners go will be very important, especially for Compress.
As the closers begin to kick it into gear as the run into the final run begins, there may be a traffic jam, so I like a horse that can potentially follow Compress through along the rail at this point. If What A Guarantee is close enough to pounce on this, then things set up terrific for him, but it may be Moment Of Madness in that spot instead.  The trio of The Perfect Day, Atomic Twister, and Ned Isakoff will be searching for the perfect lane, and the one that finds it first is the one that going to have the better race of those three.   Snowmizer and Spring Lover may find themselves a little wider here then their trainers like.  With What A Guarantee, I am a little concerned about him being in a traffic jam if he allows Moment Of Madness to get ahead of him.
In the stretch, I see Compress and Palestinian battling hard to hold off the closers as the others who had been with him start to tail off, and the closers make their presence felt.  Moment Of Madness, if he is behind Compress here, and has the leg kick to do it, may be very capable here of pulling off what will be considered an upset.  Otherwise, it greatly boils down to which of The Perfect Day, Atomic Twister, or Ned Isakoff had the better lane and made their move first.   Copper Beast can be added in here as well.  Those who had wide trips will see that seal their fate.  Can Compress hold on?  I’m going with Ned to turn the tables on Compress here.

Prediction: 8-2-12-6
More Predictions will follow!  But first, some more history.

KYD History By Trainer:
How have the trainers competing this year fared previously in the KYD?  Here’s a brief look.  Listed alphabetically.

Trainer: Blushing Meadows
2016 Entries: What A Guarantee (#4), Atomic Twister (#7)
KYD History: Blushing Meadows is most well known on the TC scene for being the trainer of Mrs Bombastic, who thwarted Five Fives triple crown attempt in the PRK of 2010.  He would saddle his first KYD runner in 2009 with Sweet Talking Jed, and finished 6th that year.   The next season would be the only time that he has hit the board in this race, doing so with Shanghai Mystery, who was third.    A couple years passed before the trainer re-appeared in 2013 with the 6th-place Call The Race.   Last year, he ran Spotted Cat, who would be 13th from post 13.  This year will be the first time that he has had multiple runners in the derby.   Both of them seem to be peaking at the right time, and are quite dangerous.

Trainer: Big Guns Stables
2016 Entry: Copper Opus (#5)
KYD History: The trainer, who’s been in the game since 2008, is likely thrilled to have their first ever entry in this race.  Copper Opus looks to be a potentially sneaky longshot in here.

Trainer: Cherrytree Hill Farm
2016 Entry: Compress (#2)
KYD History: The trainer proudly saddles his first ever KYD entry, and it is one that should be one of the top choices in here.

Trainer: D J C Racing Stables
2016 Entry: Snowmizer (#16)
KYD History: The first time D J C was in this race, he brought two horses and one of them has become legendary.  Niagra would only get a fourth place result in this race in 2014 though, before going on to bigger and better.  Diplomatic Immunity was 7th the same year.  Last year, he again brought two well regarded horses, but neither Port On The Horizon or Unsuited would get in the money, finishing 6th and 7th respectively.   Snowmizer was a last minute purchase, doing so on the 27th of April, but he will have a good chance to get a great result in his new silks here.

Trainer: Downwind Stables
2016 Entries: Water Mummy (#1), Missing In Action (#14)
KYD History: The only other time Downwind Stables has had runners in the KYD was in 2014, and that year he had two as well.  Both runners finished off the board with K T running 6th, and Hardline finishing 16th.  Missing In Action should give him a great shot this year!

Trainer: Eastern Equine
2016 Entry: Champagne Supernova (#15)
KYD History: Eastern Equine is past winner of the KYD doing so with Fusion, and from post #20 to boot, in 2007.  That was a year after he debuted in the race with Bernard, who was never a factor in the 2006 edition.  After the win, the trainer was not in the race again until 2012, when he ran Righteous, seen then as one of the favorites, but would finish 12th.   That has been his last entry until Champagne Supernova this year.

Trainer: Grimley
2016 Entries: Dogs Got Wings (#11), Blue Guy (#17)
KYD History: Last year was the first time that Grimley had a horse entries in the KYD, and Mars put in a very strong run, finishing in a third place dead heat.   His entries here could get overlooked here, but both are very capable, and Dogs Got Wings is probably one that we will see get out with the leaders early.

Trainer: Jerry Garcia Racing
2016 Entry: Ned Isakoff (#8)
KYD History: The longtime trainer ran in the very first KYD, having two entries, including 2nd place Heidegger in 2014, as well as Wharf Rat.   He was right back in the second race as well, with Sweet Jack, who finished 9th.   His 2006 entry is a very well known to the breeding scene, as The Maestro finished 7th.  After a year hiatus, he would saddle two in 2008, one of which is Ned Isakoff’s sire, Il Miglio Fabro.  Generalmajor, also seen in the shed from time to time was the other, and the two finished 7th and 9th, respectively.  Jerry Garcia Racing then had a brief cold spell in terms of getting runners in the race, but returned in 2012 with Condottieri, who placed 10th.  In 2014, he almost got back in the money with Kavorka, but he would be fifth, and last year Sindaco di Firenze was towards the back.  He has been patient and picked his spots well with Ned Isakoff, and his experience here today should not be overlooked.

Trainer: Mb Stables
2016 Entries: Moment of Madness (#3), Spring Lover (#18), Cliffs of Moher (#20)
KYD History: It might be hard to believe now, but it actually took Mb Stables a little while to make his presence felt in this race.  His first runner came in 2012, with Vroom Vroom, and that one failed to beat a horse in the race.  All of that changed the next year when the trainer won the race with his most well known horse, the great Commanding.  Though it may be forgotten that he actually went 1-2 that year, having the runner up, Hick Up as well. His third entry that year, Red Echo, was not as fortunate.   That’s been the highlight year for him in this race.  2014 saw his finishers place 7th, 10th, and 13th; and last year his entries finished 15th, 16th, and 18th.  A couple outside posts in this race won’t make matters easier this season, but his runners are of course, very capable.

Trainer: Nakamura Stables
2016 Entries: Rising Light (#9), Palestinian (#12), Coup de Lyon (#19)
KYD History: The trainer saddled his first KYD runner in 2015, with Prince of Monaco, and would finish 8th.  This year has certainly been his best year with the three entries in this race.  Palestinian is one that many people like, but Rising Light should not be overlooked, either.  Coup de Lyon figures to be a longshot.

Trainer: Nynl Stables
2016 Entry: Phooeys Ideal (#13)
KYD History: This will be the trainer’s first runner in the KYD that will actually go to post.  In 2012, the trainer also had Champion Instincts as an entry, but opted to scratch him before the race.  Phooeys Ideal will be a longshot, though he’s run well when the brightest lights have been on him before in the BC Juvenile.

Trainer: Pan Farms  
2016: The Perfect Day (#6), Copper Beast (#10)
KYD History: Pan Farms had his first runner with Skeleton Key in 2012, who would finish in a dead heat with Australia Wide’s Vouvray for 4th.   His only other entry to this point was Model American in 2013, who was 5th.  Pan Farms and Australia Wide this year are about as inseparable as they were in that 2012 dead heat, given that Pan purchased each of his runners here from Australia Wide, for a combined $1,600.000.

KYD History By Post Position
(So what’s really a good and bad post?)

#1- (12-0-1-1)
#2- (12-1-0-0) Winner: Half Spirit (2008)
#3- (12-0-0-0)
#4- (12-1-1-1) Winner: Ghost Walker (2009)
#5- (12-1-1-1) Winner: Who else? Five Fives (2010)
#6- (12-2-0-0) Winners: Sleepless Nights (2005), Laffin To Mia (2014)
#7- (11-1-1-1) Winner: Dani Dauntless (2006)
#8- (12-2-0-0) Winners: Fuji Ninja (2004), King Cobra (2015)
#9- (12-0-0-0)
#10- (12-0-1-2)
#11- (12-0-2-0)
#12- (10-0-0-0)
#13- (12-1-1-2) Winner: Commanding (2013)
#14- (12-1-0-0) Winner: Willow Grove (2011)
#15- (11-0-0-1)
#16- (12-0-0-1)
#17- (12-0-2-0)
#18- (12-1-0-1) Winner: Cryptomagic (2012)
#19- (12-0-2-0)
#20- (12-1-0-1) Winner: Fusion (2007)

Most Wins: #6, #8.  Good News for: The Perfect Day, Ned Isakoff
Most ITM: #13.  Good News for: Phooeys Ideal
Never ITM: #3, #9, #12.  Bad news for: Moment of Madness, Rising Light, Palestinian.

Predictions:
I couldn’t keep all the fun to myself.  Here’s what other SRF writers think about this race.

Stu: 4-8-5
“I think more than ever the field is even and the result will be down to trip and draw. It saddens me a little that I am looking at the field and wondering not who is the best horse but who had a bad trip last time or who can get a good position in the race. I like the three I picked because they have either overcome poor draws and ran well or are positioned in the gate to advantage. “

Iwin: 2-7-11-10

Cozman:
1st – Cliffs Of Moher – huge horse, horrible post
2nd – Copper Beast – AW will be sorry he sold him
3rd – Compress – should be a good horse for years to come
4th – Atomic Twister – real good no matter what his name is

Triple T:
Win- Compress
FL Derby was the toughest prep and he won.  Top speed rating and knows how to win.

Place-Spring Lover
Comes from off the pace and gets a great post to do so.  Improving with each start and switches to a top jockey.

Show-Palestinian
Always been a fan and gets a repeat jockey unlike others.  Third in that FL Derby and will be closing for a piece

4th-Copper Beast
Loves his win at OP and could find the best trip of all from the middle post.  Would not be a surprise over his more expensive stablemate.

Alabarda:
2-7-10 with the 4 as a surprise to be included in  trifecta wagering.
I am partial to Compress, often the Florida derby winner repeats himself in the KYD.
He is also one of the few with a regular jockey, Bejarano, unlike many who changes every race (on this point I included #4 also because of M. Smith).

Categories: TC 2015-2020, THE TRIPLE CROWN