The KYD (Grade 1)- $3,000.000 Purse
CD- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Quarter on the Dirt
May 1, 2021
It is the race that we all have in mind when we took on this journey to become virtual horse racing trainers. On Saturday, we will either see one trainer achieve this incredible accomplishment for the first time, or we will see someone add to their legacy. Others will watch, hoping to one day make the field or to return to it. The winning trainer will then be able to dream about winning the TC, something that has not been done in the history of our racing world. Only once has that dream lasted longer than two weeks, but maybe this will be the year that everything changes. As we look at this field, we certainly see plenty of greatness within the starting gate, but we don’t have that Five Fives in the field, or the horse everyone is talking about and is excited about. Pretty Ferro got close to that hype, and you can argue that maybe a horse in this field should be talked about in that regard, but this KYD seems a little more up for grabs between many of its top contenders. But maybe, it won’t be a top contender at all heading into the race. Willow Grove wasn’t considered a top choice in 2011, and Royal Assembly won at 47/1 last year. That is why all trainers will continue to dream until a winner is declared.
Last year in the KYD, Royal Assembly’s win was considered an upset at the time, but he did prove that it was not a fluke when he finished second in the BEL a month later. One thing that we should not see in this year’s race are those crazy early fractions. The stunning fast early pace of the KYD was the primary point of discussion amongst those who observed it, and it would overshadow talk of the winner. In seeing what happened to those who went to the lead last year, it is highly unlikely that we will see that again. Everyone will be in agreement that we want to see a great race, when considering how much goes into the KYD chase every year, both in time and energy, and money invested in it.
Twenty horses. Legendary trainers. Long time trainers in the race for the first time. Three fillies. Plenty of reasons to be excited for what we will see on Saturday. It’s time for the 2021 KYD! Let’s meet the field!
#1- Added Value
Trainer- Alabarda Stable (0 wins)
Jockey- J L Ortiz (0 wins)
Breeding- Dollar Quarters/Osobaya
Ownership history- Bred in Florida as third quarter two year old by trainer.
Form- Made his debut at MNR and lost by 20 lengths. So, remember that now as we race our two year olds for the first time. Anything can happen, and for Added Value, it did! He’d break his maiden in his next race, at PEN, and coming right after he was gelded. Entered 2021 running at TAM, and not seeming to be on the TC trail like others here, but Alabarda Stable knew he had something great. He would take the chance at th FL Derby with very little resume heading into it, and he had to do it from the outside. The result would be a true feel-good story, as Added Value earned the win by two lengths.
Best Chance to win- This gelding still is pretty inexperienced when it comes to stake experience, but in his one opportunity, he would get it done. To win this race, he should tune out all of the noise about that inexperience and simply do what he did the last time. If it worked then, it can work again.
Forecast- This is a tough field for Added Value, and winning from the rail is never easy, and his running style could make that all the more tricky. His trainer has stated that this was the one post that they did not want to get, and I can understand why. Alabarda is one that we can root for, but I’m not expecting this horse to get a cut of the purse.
#2- Darth Charley
Trainer- Diablo Diablo (0 wins)
Jockey- J Stein (0 wins)
Breeding- Darth Andedudu/Charley Girl
Ownership history- Bred in Pennsylvania as a yearling by trainer.
Form- He has been able to win three out of his eleven career races, but the majority of that came on the turf. This is not the typical route we see of a horse in the KYD, but the trainer says that a work on the dirt in March changed everything. At the time, it was the second fastest mile work on the dirt. “I immediately looked for the first big qualifying race and entered him”, the trainer said, “and he ran 2nd which I knew from my research meant he was a shoe in for a run. Hardly a campaign aimed at the TC but won a lottery ticket for a chance!” That race was the LA Derby, where he started from the 11-post and finished second to Evergreen.
Best Chance to win- As a 25/1 longshot, Darth Charley was able to get near the front at the start and was able to stay there until the end. Since he started going longer, this has been his plan of attack for the turf races he was in, as well. Only once did that style fail him, and we could look past that here. Draws a great post for the race.
Forecast- It’s hard to call anyone a sleeper in the KYD, but Darth Charley is certainly one to watch if the betting public forgets about him and his odds start to climb. He doesn’t have the graded win to talk about, but I am encouraged about the way he ran in the LA Derby. Not sure if he will finish top four, but I do expect he will keep the trainer excited all the way to the end. If the odds do seem to get too high, which they could, take a shot.
#3- Ricki Tikki Tavi
Trainer- La Canada Racehorses (0 wins)
Jockey- A Beschizza (0 wins)
Breeding- Bright Command/Perfect Tip Toer
Ownership history- Bred in New York as a yearling by trainer.
Form- Broke his maiden in his fourth career start, which was the first time that he was able to run a mile. Off of that win, he was sent to the Sleepy Hollow for NY-breds, did not run well, and was gelded before he could go to sleep that night. Didn’t seem to get going until March as a threat for the KYD, when he placed second in the Grade 2 San Felipe. The trainer feels that the good post drawn for the KYD will help his chances, “ I think Rikki Tikki Tavi got a bad post last time for his prep (BG Stks) (post 12/14) and the draw for the Derby is great (post 3). I believe as long as he can handle the distance he has a legitimate shot”
Best Chance to win- This is a great post draw, as the trainer mentions. Though this horse has won three of his ten career races, he has not won a stake yet. The good news for him is that he is on his best form right now, but I don’t know if that is at the level of the elite horses in this race. I’ll make this comment a lot during the preview, probably, but Ricki Takki Tavi will have to be at this best.
Forecast- This gelding has certainly earned his way here, but he does not seem to be one of the biggest contenders in the field. As such, I do not feel as though he will be in the money here as he still has not won a stake, and he meets the field of his life here.
#4- Tko
Trainer- Fractious (0 wins)
Jockey- D Saenz (0 wins)
Breeding- Residue/Hunt
Ownership history- Bred in California as a first quarter two year old by trainer.
Form- As a first quarter two year, Tko was able to get on the radar pretty early as a TC contender. He’d run in the Grade 3 Bashford Manor in June, and while he did not win the race, he was the only horse from that race to make it to the KYD. He’d win the Grade 2 Best Pal, and then run in a couple other top two year old stakes before appearing in the BC Juvenile. That’s great, but to be a contender for the KYD, you have to keep it going, and Tko has kept throwing punches this season, winning both of the two races that he has been in. That would be TAM Derby and the Wood Memorial, so he comes into this race looking very good.
Best Chance to win- Tko has seemed to run with differing styles during his career, and when he was looked to come from behind, it has not worked out as well. He won’t go right to the lead, but won each of the TAM Derby and the Wood Memorial with a stalking trip early on. He draws an excellent post to be able to execute that strategy again. I become very concerned about him if he does not break well; more so than with most.
Forecast- He’s only raced twice this year, but in each of those races, he ended up in the winner’s circle. It should also be noted that only his last three races have come since he was gelded five days after the BC Juvenile. His more difficult races of his career were when he did not have a good post, and that is not a concern. Tko should be a major threat at the end.
#5- Sports Page
Trainer- John Henry (0 wins)
Jockey- G Saez (0 wins)
Breeding- Charley Farley/Miss Page
Ownership history- Bred in Florida as a first quarter two year old by Greeko Holdem. Acquired by Aer Stables, still unraced, for $135.000 in June 2020 auction. Sold by Aer Stables to John Henry for $700.000 in December 2020.
Form- This horse had a successful two year old season which culminated in placing second in the BC Juvenile. He did not win a stake last year, but his overall performances were very encouraging. For Aer Stables, that meant “sell”, and that he would for $700.000, in a sale that worked out very well for seller and buyer. After all, Aer still has three in this race. Sports Page did not start this year off that well in terms of gaining KYD points, so needed a big performance in the BG Stakes last month . He’d get that and more, earning the win.
Best Chance to win- Came from off the pace to win the BG Stakes, which was his first stake victory. Looking further back to the Breeders Futurity, this seems to be a good style for him, but do you want to do that in the KYD? Has a couple horses to his inside which are probably looking to get near the front, so theoretically if he wanted to drop back a bit, he could likely do so while holding the rail, or at least the second lane.
Forecast- With Sports Page, I am just not feeling it. This is just personal opinion, of course, and there is plenty that this horse has done to where he should be thinking much better. My concern mainly centers around his preferred running style. It’s best for him, but I think it will be tough to win like that.
#6- Contradiction
Trainer- Aer Stables (1 win)- 2015, King Cobra
Jockey- S X Bridgmohan (0 wins)
Breeding- Shark Force/Because I Said So
Ownership history- Bred in California by Mo Mentum Farm as a yearling. Acquired by Aer Stables, unraced, for $150.000 in an April 2020 private sale.
Form- After having a close call in his second race, Contradiction was gelded and took advantage of his first chance to run a mile after the geld, winning at DMR by three lengths. This propelled him into stake company, and since then he has one win to show for it, the $90.000 Street Sense. Otherwise, he has made it a habit to finish third, running there in his last three races, all of which were in KYD preps. Thanks to that consistency, he was able to make it here, to the KYD.
Best Chance to win- Tough to say, since it seems as though different tactics have been tried with him, and they have led to the same result. The question is what to make of those third place finishes. After all, they are not wins, and not races where he has been in a photo with the winner, either. At the same time, they are in top races, and he was able to get near the front. That hasn’t stopped the trainer from liking him, as he says, “Contradiction is a year long stable favorite. Had some big struggles, but he has been one of the best in my barn since purchase.”
Forecast- I’m high on two of the three that Aer will be bringing to the gate. Contradiction is the one that I am not feeling as excited about. He’s going to represent himself well here, and I would also be surprised to see him not in, at minimum, the top 12. Look one post over, or at the end of the gate for better options from the trainer.
#7- Viral Breakdown (filly)
Trainer- Aer Stables (1 win)- 2015, King Cobra
Jockey- J K Court (0 wins)
Breeding- Tragic/Conkerberry
Ownership history- Bred in Florida as a first quarter two year old by trainer.
Form- I have to admit to having a fun time following Viral Breakdown over the course of the year, because she has always had this race targeted. Her promise showed in winning three of five races as a two year old, with one being an ungraded stake. In 2021, she has exclusively run against the boys, and has done so very well, winning the Smarty Jones in January. There was no recent to deviate from that plan, or to think, “try the KYO instead”. A close fourth in the Risen Star, led to runner up performances in both the Gotham and the SA Derby. The trainer says of her, “Viral breakdown, would be awesome to get a homebred filly home against the boys. She’s a grinder.” I think grinder is a perfect way to describe her, too. Certainly a homebred filly winning the KYD would be a remarkable accomplishment.
Best Chance to win- I want to her to keep doing what she is doing, and we can’t forget to mention the five pound weight allowance that she has here. I’d rather see her stalking than to be at the front (in a style similar to the SA Derby), and it’s possible she could be the early pacesetter here.
Forecast- She’s one to root for, but not going to my pick to win. She is must to place to exotic bets however, as her consistency of being in the top four is very impressive, and she is coming off her best SRF of her career in the SA Derby. Top four, very possible.
#8- Howl Of The Hound
Trainer- Mb Stables (1 win)- 2013, Commanding
Jockey- E Jaramillo (0 wins)
Breeding- Marry Me Mandy/Stop Traffic
Ownership history- Bred in New Mexico as a first quarter two year old by Jive Inc. Acquired by Mb Stables, unraced, in the June 2020 auction for $27.060.
Form- Well, try as you might, but you are not going to find anything wrong with his form. Howl Of The Hound is a perfect six-for-six in his career, and that is enough to make me wonder a bit why he is not being talked about in the same light as we did with Five Fives and Pretty Ferro. The gelding debuted in September, and has won the LA Futurity, Risen Star, and SUN Derby in his last three races. Perhaps there are preps with more prestige, and that is why Howl Of The Hound has not been hyped up more, but he has not done anything wrong on the track.
Best Chance to win- This one knows what it takes to win, as it all he has done throughout his career. His recipe for success seems to be to run in the middle of the field, and be 3-4 lengths off the lead early on. Being in the middle of the field could put him at the mercy of others in terms of the trip with a 20-horse field, but he has likely been in that situation before.
Forecast- Six-for-six is an impressive career, though don’t forget that one of them was a dead heat win with his stablemate, Evergreen, which was an exciting race to recap. Should he win, then it is time to talk about him the way we did Five Fives. With a horse like this, there is also the fear in the back of the mind that he is due to not have one of his better races, if that is simply for trip concerns. We’ll pick him in the top four, but I am leaning towards someone else for the win.
#9- Resident Fox
Trainer- Fractious (0 wins)
Jockey- T Gaffalione (0 wins)
Breeding- Residency/Ye Fox
Ownership history- Bred in California as a third quarter two year old by trainer.
Form- Made his debut in December at TAM, and placed third in his only two year old start. This year, he would start with two victories, capturing the Battaglia Memorial Stakes after he broke his maiden. Appeared in the FL Derby next, and was fourth, then on two weeks rest, ran third in the AR Derby.
Best Chance to win- To make it here into the KYD, Resident Fox has had to do a lot of racing since the end of March. This will be his third race in a five week stretch, though it was that or nothing for Resident Fox. Often times, that third race in quick succession is what will get a horse, so this gelding his going to have to be ready to run and not show any signs of fatigue. Above all else, this is the biggest key to success for hi,
Forecast- Obviously, to get into the KYD, there was no other choice to run him in both the FL Derby and the AR Derby, but I think this is a pretty tight workload for him. The silver lining is that he only has had five career races, so maybe he will handle that without any problem. I can’t pick that to happen, however.
#10- Afterburner
Trainer- Arindel (0 wins)
Jockey- D Moran (0 wins)
Breeding- Pinnacle West/Creepy Nightmare
Ownership history- Bred in New York as a second quarter two year old by Fractious. Acquired by Arindel for $500.000 in a February 2021 private sale.
Form- Began his career running for Fractious, and had a very hit and miss early history. He’d have races like his win in the Grade 3 Iroquois, but pull no-shows like he did in the SAR Special. He won the Remsen, but in the race after, finished eighth in the Risen Star. After that race, Fractious chose to sell Afterburner, and did so to Arindel for $500.000. With his new trainer, the gelding has not shown much, placing seventh in each of the Rebel and BG Stakes.
Best Chance to win- This horse has an inconsistent history, so when you look at the last three races, you might think, “he’s due for a big one”. That may be true, but the puzzle for Arindel to figure out is how to make runs like the Remsen keep happening, over and over again. He was on the lead there, but in his last three races has looked to come from off the pace. Arindel is hoping for the best, telling me, “Purchased with the points to get into the derby, just snuck in. Has been seemingly affected by the new race engine, but with the way he’s working, there’s no doubt he has talent.. on his best day, he can win. Hopefully he’s able to break decent enough, something that he hasn’t been doing.”
Forecast: I shy away from horses like this for a smaller $100.000 stake, so that is not going to change for the KYD. There’s talent here, but I will look to win with him, possibly, down the road sometime.
#11- Power Walk (filly)
Trainer- Mb Stables (1 win)- 2013, Commanding
Jockey- Ru Gonzalez (0 wins)
Breeding- Walk Like A Man/Chai Special
Ownership history- Bred in California as a third quarter two year old by El Primero Rodeo. Acquired by Mb Stables, unraced, for $75.000 in a July 2020 private sale.
Form- Our second filly in the race ran once as a two year old, and would start her 2021 off with back to back wins, each of which were in races less than a mile. As her distance increased , Power Walk continued to show promise, placing third in the FG Oaks. However, the trainer was not going to be overshadowed by others having success with fillies, and entered Power Walk in the AR Derby. With a stalking trip, she would power home to the wire to get that victory. From there, the only question would be whether or not she would be chosen as one of the three for the trainer, since he qualified several others.
Best Chance to win- We’re seeing a lot in this field so far that seem to have their best chance with a stalking trip, and perhaps some of that is because of how races seem to run these days. Power Walk is usually near the front, so she is going to have to be part of that early group to run like she has in the past. Of the three for the trainer, she is likely to be the quickest to start. Or maybe he will just change everything around!
Forecast- The trainer had options for the KYD, so picking Power Walk as one of them is a tremendous vote of confidence. She will have a five pound weight allowance, and naturally that is a good thing. I do like that she has never had a bad race, but she is stepping into the toughest field that she has ever been in. Won’t be one of my top four.
#12- Princess Jasmine (filly)
Trainer- Mo Mentum Farm (0 wins)
Jockey- Mar Garcia (0 wins)
Breeding- Brutal/Princess Royal
Ownership history- Bred in Pennsylvania as a yearling by Aer Stables. Acquired by Mo Mentum on April 18th for $750.000, in private sales.
Form- The third filly in the race, with her entire racing career having been under the guidance of Aer Stables. That makes it impressive that he was able to qualify two fillies for the KYD, and he earned $750.000 for that as Mo Mentum Farm purchased the filly. Princess Jasmine ran five times as a two year old, and earned a couple of wins in overnights. Started off the year running against her own gender, and won the $125.000 Gasparilla Stakes before moving on to the TAM Derby and SA Derby, where she placed second and third. Two weeks ago, she changed hands, and Mo Mentum Farm is optimistic, “I bought Princess Jasmine because of her incredible stamina. If you watch the SA Derby she was moving very strong at the end of the race and looks like she will appreciate the classic 10 furlong distance. In her past five starts she’s 2-2-1 and placed in two of the tougher derby preps. I feel like she’s a hard fighting filly who is full of confidence. I’m proud to have Princess Jasmine as my stables first KYD runner.”
Best Chance to win- In the SA Derby, Princess Jasmine was near the back early on, something that represented a change from prior races. She handled this well, and as Mo Mentum Farm mentioned, she was strong late in the race. This leads to optimism that she will be able to handle the added distance which is a question everyone in this field deals with, and even more so when considering there are several here that want to do their running early.
Forecast- Great to see Mo Mentum Farm in the KYD, and there is plenty to be excited about with Princess Jasmine, not just here, but going forward as well. It’s interesting to see if she will handle the tenth furlong better than most, because if so, I think she becomes a sneaky horse to show up and snag away a top spot against some that likely will be running quicker early. That said, she won’t be among picks.
#13- Pocantico
Trainer- Smokey Stover (0 wins)
Jockey- J R Velazquez (0 wins)
Breeding- Decima/Happy Clapper
Ownership history- Bred in California as a first quarter two year old by trainer.
Form- There was a lot of talk about Pocantico as a two year old, and for very good reason. He won four of eight races that year, including the DMR Futurity but none bigger than the BC Juvenile. All seemed great, but he has not been able to get a win this year. That does not mean he has not been good, because there is nothing wrong with finishing fourth in the Davis Stakes, then third in the Gotham, but when you were a BC Juvenile winner, that’s going to get people to stop talking about you, and more about the others. His last race was probably a throw out in the mud, but I watched the Coolmore Lexington with elevated interest and not once did Pocantico pose a threat.
Best Chance to win- Pocantico knows how to win a big race, let’s not lose sight of that. Anyone who can win the BC Juvenile is able to step up. It would not be unprecedented, either, for a Juvenile to appear to have peaked, and then bounce back. Pocantico has certainly not fizzled out, either, because has managed to finish in the top four in two of his last three races. He needs to dig down deep, and to find that form that was so great as a two year old in order to beat the rivals that he faces here. Smokey Stover can certainly be the one to figure that out.
Forecast- Perhaps the number thirteen will be lucky for him, but right now I can’t be optimistic about his chances. Though in covering these races for a while now, I have noticed that some horses simply seem to rise up in the biggest races. Pocantico has done that once, and I would not be surprised if he did so again, but I am lacking excitement otherwise towards him in this field.
#14- Plan To Wheel
Trainer- Fractious (0 wins)
Jockey- J Lezcano (0 wins)
Breeding- Strategic Command/Sweep The Wheel
Ownership history- Bred in Florida by Gdp Inc as a first quarter two year old. Acquired by Fractious for $150.000 in a September 2020 private sale.
Form- Broke his maiden in his second career start, which was a turf sprint. Off of that, he was entered into the Grade 3 With Anticipation, and that did not go well. That would end up being his last race for Gdp Inc, and would also be the last time he raced on the grass. With Fractious, he has adapted well to running a mile, winning the $75.000 Gold Rush as a two year, then getting his biggest win, the Gotham, to punch his ticket for the KYD. A no-show in the SA Derby afterwards is of concern, and Plan To Wheel has not had his best races when the distance was greater than a mile.
Best Chance to win- Tends to like to come from the middle of the field, and when he has been too far back at the start, things have not gone well for him. The concern I have with him is whether or not he can make the ten furlongs. I may be overstating this, but when he has run more than a mile, he has not been as good. Maybe Fractious can figure out how to change that.
Forecast- Right now, it is hard for me to be optimistic about Plan To Wheel, because I am concerned about him getting this distance. In the future, I will be happy to see him at a mile, and eventually he will get better at nine or ten furlongs. Against this company, though, I can’t make him a pick.
#15- Hint Of Sugar
Trainer- Arindel (0 wins)
Jockey- L Saez (0 wins)
Breeding- Crossing The Rubicon/Main Ingredient
Ownership history- Bred in Ontario as a third quarter two year old by trainer.
Form- Made his debut in July, and would finish second in his first four races, one of them being a $70.000 ungraded stake from WO. It took a while, but eventually in his sixth career start, he was able to find the winners circle, coming at GP. Afterwards, came two more second place results, but not the frustrating type when you are trying to break your maiden. Instead, they came against the best, in the Fountain of Youth and then the FL Derby. This is a horse that Arindel has been excited about, ever since he was worked for the first time, “103.2 virgin worker was always high on my radar.. Has been 1st or 2nd in all 7 of his fast track runs. Has been extremely consistent and is training well for his Derby try. Off of his conformation, it would suggest the distance might be a bit far, but he tries every time and has shown in his races that the distance should be fine for him.. Unfortunately we’ve drawn outside, but I expect him to run his best race! My first homebred to make the derby.”
Best Chance to win- This horse knows how to hit the exacta, and all about one of his second place performances have been within a length of the winner. He’s usually near the front, but not right at it, and the biggest concern for Hint Of Sugar here will be dealing with that from this outside post, especially when several others are going to try for a similar game plan. If he can make his post not a hindrance, then his track record of consistency must be considered, and perhaps this time, he’ll get that win.
Forecast- It is hard to look past a horse that has never failed to hit the board in his career, and has been in the top two in all but one race. He showed some good fight in the FL Derby, and nearly won, but was beaten by a horse wearing the same silk number that he has here. It can be done, considering making him a top four pick, and if not, he would not be that far off from it.
#16- Invade The Storm
Trainer- Saratoga Stud (0 wins)
Jockey- A Cedillo (0 wins)
Breeding- Storming/Invade
Ownership history- Bred in California as a third quarter two year old by Team 7 Illusions. Acquired by Fractious for $75.000, unraced, in an August 2020 private sale. Sold to Saratoga Stud for $500.000 in a February 2021 private sale.
Form- You have to give a quick shout out to Fractious on this one, who qualified two for the KYD, then made $1,000.000 selling two others that ended up qualifying. This one ended up in the hands of Saratoga Stud, who has never been shy about making a big purchase in pursuit of a KYD victory. This gelding has made four career starts, winning twice for Fractious, with one of those wins being the $150.000 Jerome. After the sale, he finished in the middle of the field at the Gotham but bounced back very well to finish second in the BG Stakes.
Best Chance to win- Twice we have seen this horse jump out to the lead, and one of them came in the BG Stakes. I’m concerned about him getting the distance, though, as he did not exactly set the world on fire in the way that he finished the BG Stakes, and that also showed in the Gotham. Dealing with an outside post adds to the task that the trainer has in front of him with Invade The Storm.
Forecast- This is not a horse that I feel good about, as I am not confident that he wants to run ten furlongs. A tactical adjustment could change that, and Saratoga Stud has surely been working hard to figure out how to make him last to the end. He’d deserve a lot of credit if it worked out, but I have to look past him here.
#17- Evergreen
Trainer- Mb Stables (1 win)- 2013, Commanding
Jockey- D Davis (0 wins)
Breeding- Centerpiece/Calm and Collected
Ownership history- Bred in Florida as a yearling by trainer.
Form- When the draw was announced, this was the first horse that I looked for. That might be a product of having covered multiple wins of his, and being quite impressed with what he saw. Post 17 has not historically been a great one, but things can change! As a two year old, Evergreen won two of six, and spent time pursuing the generous purses of the FL Sire Stakes. Then, it was to the grass, and he ran in the BC Juvenile Turf, finishing sixth. Evergreen has not been back to the green since then, and we can be glad for that. Now, he is on a three race winning streak, with wins in the Sham, Risen Star, and the LA Derby. His Risen Star win was in a dead heat with stablemate Howl Of The Hound. So while that one has not been beaten, he’s at least been equalled, once.
Best Chance to win- Evergreen does not go directly to the back early on, but he has typically not been one to stir it up with the frontrunners from the start of the race. Mb Stables will change things up from time to time, and while this post will be on his mind, I don’t think the tactics change with Evergreen. If he can use his outside post and settle into a midpack position in what I often call the “money lane”, then I think he would be great position for the stretch run.
Forecast- As the TC chase went on, Evergreen began to excite me more and more as the one to beat in the KYD. The draw puts a damper on it, but many winners have come from the outside posts as well. I also think his running style works pretty well for how I envision this race going. Picking a KYD winner is always tough, but is equally fun. Evergreen is my pick to come out on top.
#18- Sacred Order
Trainer- Alydar Stables (0 wins)
Jockey- L Contreras (0 wins)
Breeding- Charley Farley/Queen Niagra
Ownership history- Bred in Ontario as a third quarter two year old by trainer.
Form- Raced three times as a two year old, but did not break his maiden until his fourth start, which came at the start of January. That is still his only win to this point, but that did not stop him from having success during the prep race season. Sacred Order would finish fourth in the LA Derby, missing by half a length and doing so while start from post #14. He followed that up be running second in the AR Derby, a critical result in getting him the needed points to make it to his race.
Best Chance to win- Whether it’s a seven horse field or a fourteen horse field, Sacred Order always seems to have to run from the outside. That continues with having to start from #18 here, but it’s better than not being in the field at all. This means that he has been able to overcome starting here before, and that Alydar Stables can fall back on that success to get him an adjustment that works here. Might be vying to be one of the stalkers in this field, but is probably okay with settling into the middle of the field. He always gets near the front at the end, and is running well late, so the tenth furlong may be something that he really enjoys.
Forecast- I’ll be passing on Sacred Order, but if you are looking for a likely longshot that might adapt really well to running ten furlongs, then this is a horse that you do not want to pass up. The trainer would have loved a better draw, but he does know what to do starting from the outside.
#19- Cheesy
Trainer- Keikowin Racing (0 wins)
Jockey- D Van Dyke (0 wins)
Breeding- Exultant/Amazing Andrea
Ownership history- Bred in California as a yearling by trainer.
Form- One of the more experienced racers in this field, as he prepares to make his eleventh career start here. As a two year old, he raced six times, breaking his maiden in his second start. For a while to start off, he was running on the turf, and won two races on it before switching to the main track. Thankfully he did, because he’d run second in the Champagne, and closed late for a sixth place run in the BC Juvenile. This year, he has stayed hot, and comes into the KYD winning his last three races, sweeping the show at SA, winning Lewis, San Felipe, and then the SA Derby. He brings D Van Dyke with him to CD in hopes to add to the streak.
Best Chance to win- Surely, Keikowin Racing groaned when he saw the post draw, but there are plenty of examples out there of horses that have had success from posts like this to get a KYD win. Cheesy has been a versatile horse over his career in terms of racing style, running well or winning while running at or near the lead, or coming from behind in the stretch. In his case, then, it’s going to be all about the trip.
Forecast- Comparatively speaking, I didn’t see as much of Cheesy as other horses in this field in what I have covered, so others may have piqued my interest a little more. You can’t deny what he did at SA, to sweep a track’s prep races is very impressive. I like that he did that from differing posts and with differing styles. Considering putting him in my top four, and if I don’t end up doing so, he’s very close.
#20- Locamotive
Trainer- Aer Stables (1 win)- 2015, King Cobra
Jockey- S Ryan (0 wins)
Breeding- Manhunt/Yosemite
Ownership history- Bred in California as a second quarter two year old by Two Hearts One Love. Acquired by Aer Stables, unraced, for $40.000, in an April 2020 private sale.
Form- Locamotive had a great two year old season, winning twice in his five starts, with two other second place results. Included in that is the Grade 1 Hopeful at SAR, which is always a very difficult race to win. This put him on the right track to the BC Juvenile, but had to settle for a midpack finish there. As a three year old, he has won two out of three, including the Holy Bull and the Wood Memorial, making me label him in the past as the top threat to win the KYD. As for trainer Aer Stables, he says that, “ Locamotive seems to have heart….he makes me nervous every run…alot of people like him better than me.” Well, I am definitely one of the ones that like him a lot more than the trainer! What a great prep race period this has been for Aer Stables.
Best Chance to win- Don’t look at post 20 as being the far outside. Look at it as being a post that has produced two KYD winners! No one wants to start in this gate, but it does not have to be a hindrance, and Locamotive has the ability to make this work. Will it be tough to execute his preferred racing style, though, from this spot?
Forecast- As we reach the end of this preview, we’ve looked at the rest of the field and see so many horses that are probably looking to get to the front early. Locamotive likely wants to as well, but he’s going to have a lot of company there, and from this post, the trip could play a large factor. I like this horse a ton, but as much as I don’t want to, I am going to pass on him to be in my top four picks. I’ll look for him wherever he shows up next.
Also Eligibles (not already scratched): Breath Of The Wild (Smokey Stover), Need 4 Speed (Kingelleinc)
Race “fun fact” you may have picked up on: There is not a single jockey, as of press time, running in this race that has won it before.
Breeding “fun fact”: Good variance between the different quarters bred of the horses running. I was surprised to see so many third quarter two year olds making the field.
CD Weather forecast for May 1 (as of April 28): Sunny, 3% chance of rain.
Prediction: 17-4-8-7
— NS
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, TC 2021-2023, THE TRIPLE CROWN
