September 16, 2016
Annually held in mid-September as one of the key preps for the Grade I BC Mile, the WO Mile has become one of the most sought after turf events and over the years, has been one by numerous champions both in Canada and the US. Izvestia, Dance Smartly, Peteski, Peaks And Valleys and Quiet Resolve were all Horse Of The Year in Canada after their victories while champions Leroidesanimaux, Ventura and Wise Dan all scored over the tough WO course, with only the latter having the distinction of being a BC Mile champion and Duel Horse Of The Year.
At HRP, the best of the best have won over the firm WO turf including inaugural winner Alpha Ultimo, BC Mile winners Victory Rain and Trading Punches and Seven Years, a winner two years ago who is back to reclaim his title against 13 very well-meant opponents. No three-year-old has even won this race but they are well represented here but have to do battle with the division leader and some local specialists, making the post position draw and the run into the turn crucial for those are forwardly places, and those trying to find space into the stretch.
1-Antelope Storm (Five-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Grimley)
Grade I Woodford Turf Classic winner Antelope Storm is one of those in-between horses who found the Grade I Manhattan a little too long but might find the WO Mile a little too short and after cutting back to nine-furlongs for a confidence boosting win at SAR, he moves north in search of his 11th career win. He has been excellent this year after a tough four-year-old campaign and has really improved at the extended distances, adding to his capabilities from the rail as a stalker with a chance to find enough room late to hit the board.
Analysis-Solid win at SAR sets him up nicely
Fair Odds-10/1
2-Jamfest (Eight-year-old gelding / Owner-Jkk Racing Stables)
Already assured his spot in the BC Mile, Jamfest would be the feel-good story of the WO Mile should he prove best on Saturday and if you throw out his try in the Whitney over a sloppy main track, you has a multiple Grade I winner at one-mile this year with a score in the Shoemaker that was about as good as it gets. Tight turns at SA were no problem and the sweeping turns here should be just as natural so look for early speed from the inside and a wire-to-wire score that will make him the logical choice on the biggest stage in a few weeks time.
Analysis-Has all the speed to burn from the inside
Fair Odds-2/1
3-Compress (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Cherrytree Hill Farm)
The most high-profile three-year-old in the field is Compress, the FL Derby winner who tested two legs of the TC before failing as the tepid favourite in the BEL Derby after breaking poorly from an inside post. He has been off for more than two-months but comes in with a series of sharp six-furlong workouts and with a three-for-four record on turf, could be a potential upsetter if he can at least break better than he did at BEL.
Analysis-Good on the turf but needs a sharper break
Fair Odds-12/1
4-Well Suited (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
DMR Mile winner Well Suited scored that victory over three rivals as the culmination of a four-race winning streak but really steps up in class and field size in this spot and will aim to sit a stalking trip and pounce on the inside speed. Speed ratings have been steadily increasing and a workout at BEL was blazing; there is plenty of upside to this gelding and he could one of those who is finding his best at the right time after a modest campaign thus far.
Analysis-Grade II winner seems to keep getting better
Fair Odds-5/1
5-Iron Mann (Four-year-old gray colt / Owner-Aer Stables)
Iron Mann was made the favourite in the 2015 Mile after just missing in the Fourstardave at SAR but could only manage seventh in an even effort and will look to improve on that attempt as a more seasoned four-year-old. He ran his best speed rating of the year last time out in the same prep and while he could only finish third to a rival he faces again, he should be better suited outside of runners and could get a midpack trip with clear running down the long WO stretch.
Analysis-Will look to move forward off a good effort at SAR
Analysis-10/1
6-Mean Street (Six-year-old bay horse / Owner-Nakamura Stables)
Mean Street would have been the favourite in the Northern Dancer BC after a series of excellent efforts going a marathon distance but actually cuts back to one-mile off a win the Bowling Green at SAR and could be one of those who gets to the lead. His 103-speed rating is tied for the best in the field last time out but the move back a full three-furlongs will force him to get into the race sooner and that could be prove interesting against a field who are almost all specialists as this distance.
Analysis-Cuts back to one-mile in hopes of a career-defining win
Fair Odds-6/1
7-Eastern Townships (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)
Stranger things have happened in Grade I races this year and Eastern Townships was second-best in the Shoemaker Mile and third in the BEL Derby but two efforts since being purchased have not been good and he will simply have to be better to hit the top half of this field. She showed nothing in either of his SAR starts this Summer and hasn’t really posted a workout of significance since June so you have to take his preparation with a grain of salt and hope that Sanny Village has him ready to run his best, even if it is not good enough to win.
Analysis-A cut below the top runners in this field
Fair Odds-25/1
8-Hold The Mach (Six-year-old black gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)
Hold The Mach is a winner at one-mile this year after taking the Appleton at GP but he failed to hold his lead in the Grade II Nijinsky over this course last time and will be hard pressed to hold again with added pressure to his inside. He prefers to go out and show speed if he can and absolutely blitzed a five-furlong workout earlier this week so look for a quick start once again, with the idea of running fast and far into the towering turf stretch.
Analysis-Will be close to the lead for as long as he can be
Fair Odds-10/1
9-Missing In Action (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-John Henry)
Missing In Action was a TC participant before switching hands in a private sale back in May and since then, has a third in the dirt and a wonderful win in the Play The King on the WO turf, which is the local prep but one that does not usually produce big results for the winner in this race. That being said, his final time and speed rating are very high class and more importantly, came from off the pace, and with an abundance of speed, he looks to be the best one to capitalize and make a huge run down the lane, with the extra furlong only adding to his appeal.
Analysis-Sophomore has the right running style for this group
Fair Odds-4/1
10-Tin Lizzie (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Stald Gullis)
Tin Lizzie is winless since an 18-1 upset in the Kilroe Mile at SA back in March and as that effort came from nearly last-to-first in the final quarter-mile, he does have the talent to run down the speed if the pace is lightning quick. Unfortunately, he has been up-the-track in a series of starts since then and could not run into a top placing going longer last time when given every chance; all in all, a tough prospect to back unless you think the speed will simply collapse around the final bend.
Analysis-At the mercy of the pace in this event
Fair Odds-20/1
11-Swamp Fox (Five-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Blushing Meadows)
Swamp Fox has been all over the racing spectrum this season with dirt sprints, turf sprints and turf race at one-mile and off a score in the Fourstardave, has to be taken with consideration but also as a serious contender to drop off form or bounce. He has experience over the WO turf with a closing fourth in the Highlander and has speed ratings that keep getting better but his win-shy form always sees him getting a minor award and until he puts two big races together, he will have to put behind others with more consistency.
Analysis-Grade I winner needs to put it all together again
Fair Odds-6/1
12-Sir Tom (Five-year-old bay horse / Owner-Brave)
Sir Tom was sixth last year in the WO Mile and came back to score the BC Mile as part of a huge campaign and while he does have three big wins this season, that glaring effort in the AP Million is a big cause for concern with the idea being that the move back to one-mile will up his form again. An outside draw will allow him to find a clear spot down the backstretch and move forward early if he chooses and with a familiar jockey back in the irons, he has every chance to put that last effort behind him and look forward to a repeat in the biggest race of the year for this division.
Analysis-Throw out his last start and you have a logical choice
Fair Odds-10/1
13-Rare Coincidence (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
A top three finisher in all seven starts this year, Rare Coincidence is probably better suited to longer distances than one-mile but comes from the loaded Mb Stables and might not have any other place to run, especially being a three-year-old with a break in the weights. Second in the BEL Derby to the AP Million winner and a winner of the AP St Leger as the favourite, he has every chance to get into the race early and with an outside stall and a well-regarded rider, could be a huge play if he can save ground and make the best of an inside speed duel.
Analysis-Might be better suited for a longer race
Fair Odds-8/1
14-Seven Years (Seven-year-old black horse / Owner-Alydar Stables)
Seven Years is a former winner of both the WO Mile and the BC Mile but has not won since the second day of 2016 and will hope to rebound after some hit-and-miss efforts over both one-mile and going longer this campaign. He has not been bad by any means with a few top three placings including a second in the Dixie and a third in the Kilroe Mile but he was not effective going long in the AP Million and will hope that a return to a flat-mile will get him back on the right track.
Analysis-Former champion looks for a rebound
Fair Odds-12/1
Overall
Jamfest might be the veteran of the Grade I WO Mile, as an eight-year-old with 59 career starts under his belt, but a pair of Grade I wins at one-mile and seven wins and two seconds in his last nine starts over a firm turf make him the favourite against a field that will be crying out for a command performance. Missing In Action gave just that in a blazing seven-furlong win last time in the Play The King but needs to duplicate that against older rivals to prove his worth for his new connections while Well Suited might be the up-and-comer in the field with a four-race winning streak for a top owner who knows how to win big events.
Prediction
Win-Jamfest (2/1)
Place-Missing In Action (4/1)
Show-Well Suited (5/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
