July 12, 2015
The best three-year-old fillies on the turf will head to DMR on Saturday afternoon for the Grade I $300.000 DMR Oaks and whomever wins will join some very good company in holding the trophy in this very well-established race. Majesty was the first winner way back in 2003, and she only won the BC F&M Turf and more than $1,500.000 in her career and since then, fillies like Cliche, Just Too Blue, Machiavellian Lady, Funky Music and Tight Pockets have proven best, with many of them multiple Grade I winners apart from this nine-furlong race. This time around, with only have a field of four with one Grade I winner but three enter off victories and one enters off a $500.000 purchase, making this a very intriguing race with questions about who will go to the lead and who will be able to handle the distance.
1-Jawbone (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Chili King Stables)
Grade I BEL Oaks winner Jawbone is the class of the DMR Oaks field and will try to forget her dismal effort in the OT Juvenile Fillies Turf last season, as a condition of a lack of experience that has been remedied in spades since then. Four from ten on the grass with two straight wins including that nice score over the best of the best last time out, she should be able to sit in behind the leaders early and make a determined run and with distance a non-issue, needs only a solid effort to add another big cheque to her bankroll.
Analysis-Grade I winner is the star of this quartet
Fair Odds-2/1
2-Eva The Diva (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Our Athletes)
FL-bred filly Eva The Diva ran the race of her life in the Grade III Senorita when returning to the turf after a long hiatus but stunk in the Grade II San Clemente and will appreciate a firm turf in which to flaunt her speed. She has a sparkling record when racing over a dry surface and there is no rain in the forecast for California so she should be right at home going this nine-furlongs and should rebound in style with another sharp effort.
Analysis-Last race is a tossout and that makes her dangerous
Fair Odds-3/1
3-Queen Elizabeta (Three-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Mb Stables)
Queen Elizabeta seems to do her best running over an off-turf and benefited last time out in the San Clemente when others faltered but with the turf firm and fast, she needs a pace to chase and that might leave her the mercy of others and make her a longer shot than she should be. She is one of the fastest fillies in the field, in terms of speed ratings, and has looked amazing in workouts over the surface so the only question is pace and if she gets it, she is another who could easily win in this spot.
Analysis-Great last time but needs it over a firm turf
Fair Odds-5/1
4-Caricature Flame (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-TwinTowersRacing)
One of two East Coast shippers in the DMR Oaks field, Caricature Flame comes in off a score in the Grade II Lake George on opening weekend at SAR and another who was roused to victory on a yielding surface, she needs to prove that she can close into the pace on a firm turf to prove her doubters wrong. She has been steadily improving but still ranks in the N2X class and off the major ship-in, has to be considered one of the longer shots in the field as the only one routinely unproven at this class and over this kind of surface.
Analysis-Firm turf will be the question mark for this filly
Fair Odds-10/1
Overall
Jawbone has both a class edge and a distance edge over her three rivals in the Grade I DMR Oaks and with the inside run, and the speed right to her outside, should be able to sit the perfect trip and really make a run at things late as she goes for her third consecutive victory. Eva The Diva brings spice into the race as a huge purchase with potential to go gate-to-wire on a firm turf while Queen Elizabeta will be at the mercy of the speed but has enough talent to close into the final three if it sets up for her.
Prediction
Win-Jawbone (2/1)
Place-Eva The Diva (3/1)
Show-Queen Elizabeta (5/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade I
