Raven Run (Grade 2)- $250.000 Purse
KEE- For Fillies Three Years Old
Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
October 20, 2018

The Grade 2 Raven Run is one of the few remaining graded stakes of the year that will allow three year old fillies to race exclusively against their age group. It will be the 14th time that the race has been run, and trainer John Henry will be looking for third straight, weather appropriate, winner. In 2016, he was thinking warmer weather when Summer Sampler took the win. A year later, he was still out in the sun, but the skies were beginning to turn grey. Still, he scored the win with Black Sunshine. Now, the sun is gone, and the skies have opened up. He’ll hope to win this with Rainy Day Woman. That could be fitting, because at press time, there is a 40% chance of rain for Saturday. There is some sun in the starting gate thanks to Team 7 Illusions, however. A field of six will head to the starting gate, none of which are trained by Mb Stables. Can’t remember the last time that happened in a race I covered.. Let’s take a look at them now!

#1- Rainy Day Woman (John Henry, ridden by J R Velazquez)- This is who John Henry pins his hopes on to continue his winning streak. She has bounced around between going just over and just under a mile over the course of the year, but did manage a win in the Lady Angela Stakes for ON breds at this distance in late June. That was followed up very well, winning the Grade 3 Pitcher Stakes in late July at MTH. Despite the two wins, she was dropped into an optional claimer just two weeks ago, and ran fifth. Wish that race line wasn’t in her past performances. Has had some duds every now and then.

#2- Out Of Wedlock (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- The Unsuited filly has had a fair amount of success throughout her career, with five wins, but still may be looking for that true signature victory. As of right now, that would be the $100.000 Lady Finger Stakes at FL over a year ago. Otherwise, she’s won optional claimers, but has run competitively in the stakes that have been attempted. First time trying this exact distance, which could be interesting because in several six furlong races she looks like she just needed a little more race track.

#3- Sunsweet (Team 7 Illusions, ridden by L H Colon)- Had a good streak of third place finishes on the grass against LA-breds, and needed to drop down to a $10.000 maiden to finally get that win. After that, it was LA-bred stakes for her, and she finishes in what has been a theme for her career: third. She did, eventually, win one of them. This is a step up for her, but she has progressed well, based on SRF’s, over the course of the summer. It’ll take her best effort to get a win here, but another third place can’t be ruled out.

#4- Fortune Tune (Aml Racing, ridden by F Pennington)- So this is where the great F Pennington will be running, choosing Fortune Tune over spending the day at BEL with the NY-breds. She looked good as a two year old, but so far this year has only managed one win in eight starts. By the same token, though, that was a good looking win, coming in the Grade 3 Selene at WO. Her last two starts were against tougher competition then she sees here, so I won’t worry too much about them. Having Pennington aboard can really help her find that Selene form, which is a must in order to win this race.

#5- Once Upon A Bombay (Hambletonian Stables, ridden by R Bejarano)- This filly was acquired by Hambleonian in the June auction for just $20.010, and is an investment that is paying off for him. In her four races since, she has a pair of second place finishes while running in ON-bred stakes before finally getting a stake win last month at CD at the $100.000 Dogwood. That is also a seven furlong race, and it seems to be her preferred distance. She gets a tougher challenge here, but she has been stepping up well for Hambletonian to this point.

#6- Cocoa Nut (Team 7 Illusions, ridden by A Beschizza)- This one could have been running up at BEL in all of the NY-bred races, as she raced with that condition in four of her seven races. However, after winning the $100.000 Dancing Renee, Team 7 Illusions increased her competition level to graded competition, and she looked sharp in a third place run at the Grade 1 Ballerina. I wish that was the last race in her past performances, as she struggled at the CT Oaks. Maybe she just didn’t like that bullring, which would explain everything. Has a good shot here, and I see her being in the top three, but not on top.

Prediction: 4-6-3-1

— NS

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded