ELP Derby
ELP Race #12 1m Dirt Stake
Purse $300.000 For Three Year Olds.
A disappointing turn out for this race considering but maybe a sign of the times at HRP as just five three-year-olds race for a prize of $300.000. Here is how they line up:
1 Virtual Sport Mb Stables Velazquez J R 122 —
It is hard to equate that a horse that was beaten in an EMD optional claimer and then won a LS optional claimer would be a contender in a race like this but this winner of four from ten is certainly that. Working 1.10 and 2 for six furlongs last month and a close sixth in the grade one SA Derby sharply contrasts with recent form but as we all know the difference between an overnight and a stakes race is almost nonexistent these days. The gelding will get an economical run from the inside and is a major contender is this rather light field.
2 Black War Axeman Pennington F 122 —
Much of what I have just said about Virtual Sport applies to this son of Wonderful War who won a stakes race and then ran well in the Peter Pan before going back to overnights in his recent runs. Another that has worked very well for a three-year-old, he too has a great draw which will see him launch from further back so I guess it will all be down to the pace this race gets run at as to his best chance.
3 Sky Rider Nakamura Stables Bejarano R 122 —
Ran a very nice race in the Peter Pan to be fourth and then won the Affirmed with a strong front running performance so he must be, on form at least, in with a big chance. Still lightly raced, he seems to have more improvement in him than some of the others but running from a mid-gate he will have to start smartly to get in his favored on-pace position.
4 Black Swan Event Team 7 Illusions Lezcano J 122 —
The winner of just one, a maiden at TAM he was close up in the Rebel but hasn’t managed a win since his early season maiden win. Again his works are as good as most of the grade one winning three-year-olds, so on that score he is certainly a big contender, and his form is certainly comparable with the other four so he too would have to be a winning chance.
5 Magical Embrace Riggins Racing Lopez P 122 —
He has been tested this year but after a promising second in the CAC Derby he has failed to impress in his last two. Probably a little outclassed in the Risen Star and LA Derby he is back at a level where he is more likely to be competitive. A deep closer by nature, I would expect the trainer will be hoping for a speed battle up front and for him to get over the top late but who knows, with the wide gate speed push we could see a fast instruction and this one trying to turn the race on its head.
SUMMARY
This race says a lot about HRP at the moment. Five horses that have run just about as well at stakes level as overnight level, all working within a few tenths of the top 500 three-year-olds and running in a short field for a big prize. To be honest I really have no clue who will come out on top today and the race will probably be decided by the race engine. Either the pace will be too hot for the leaders and stalkers, and something will run over them late or something will zip to the lead on an average pace and stay there. If I had to settle on one, it would probably be Sky Rider.
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded