The Beldame – Grade II
BEL Race #3 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $225.000 For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward.
As we enter that period of time that the cream of the crop are starting their final push to the BC we start to get good races that can come up a bit light. This is certainly the case with this race however at grade two and still a month out i am surprised that it has come up with just 6 runners. Short of runners it may be but there is still plenty of interest for the 6 trainers and it is sure to be a good race.
Here is how they line up.
1 Laffer Our Athletes Ortiz I Jr
It is always nice to find an improving four year old and whilst this wasn’t a bad three year old by any means her last run suggests something may have clicked in her improvement curve. After 16 races on turf the trainer tried the old hack of a total change in surface and sure enough she went to the Shuvee and very nearly won going down by just a head and recording her best ever speed figure. The key now will be to do it again and with this draw in a light field there is no reason why she can’t. The downside of course is that she didn’t face three year olds in the Shuvee and she does today which of course is usually the kiss of death for four year olds.
2 Forever Phooey Party Night Rider Stables Alvarado J
Hasn’t exactly been blowing the roof off but you don’t have to be a top three year old to beat older horses and it should be noted that she ran the 9 furlongs faster than Laffer did in the Shuvee when beaten in an Allowance last time. So the question here is whether she is the best three year old and on form i am not sure she is. However, and there is always a however at HRP, she gets the two box which is a huge advantage and as an on pace type she could just be hard to peg back if the race is run to suit.
3 How Trait Gdp Inc Bravo J
This is just the type of three year old to win a race like this. Although she has only won once this year she has run some nice races including a one length fourth in the grade one Hirsch and then did pretty well with less than two weeks break to run sixth in the Alabama last time. A longer break will help and on the balance of her works and form she looks to be the one to beat in this field.
4 Spicy Poke Estero Farms Saez L
The remaining three runners are all four year olds and are probably the best three runners in the race. That distinction however has been handicapped by the three widest draws which even in a small field can make a difference. We know this one has the class gene but what we don’t know and what is probably the biggest doubt with her is her ability to get home over this nine furlongs. She did win the Chilukki over a mile at the beginning of the year but ever since she has run on pace and faded at the end. I have a feeling the trainer will need to fight the race engine today and take her back but that can be dangerous if the pace is slow. If all the ducks line up she could win but she has more ducks than a couple of others.
5 Kalaeloa Smokey Stover Franco M
A grade one winner when she took the Beholder she has been lightly tried since and comes here pretty fresh. Her last start eighth in the Ballerina wasn’t as bad as the 8th looks on her record and she does have a 1.36 and 2 mile work in September which is the stand out work in the race. The trainer is on fire this year so she must be given a huge chance even though this draw may pose a few problems for a horse that seems better on the speed.
6 Grand Cyclone Maxmillion Farm Carmouche K
A real consistent type she has one of those horses that has form figures that you can only get at HRP. Fourth beaten a length over ten furlongs in testing conditions followed by fourth in a six furlong handicap of the same grade on a rock hard fast track is not something we would see in real life form but here at HRP it merely means the horse is good. The only races she has won have been turf sprints but of course that again doesn’t mean the same as in real life coming into a nine furlong grade two. So the question is can she win? Well her dirt works are as good as everything else, she certainly has the class gene and her trainer has been known to pll off the odd miracle so just maybe as the most unlikely winner this may be the one.
SUMMARY
For me this is between How Trait and Kalaeloa on form with How Trait being the more likely to see out the trip that is the one i would go for. However as is always the case anything COULD win and if you are looking for odds it may pay to just take the longest ones.
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
