The Gun Runner
1 Mile Turf Stake Purse $2,000.000 Three-Year-Olds. At KD
This is only the second running of The Gun Runner, and KD doubles the purse to $2,000.000 from the original purse. The first edition was won by Team 7 Illusions’ Winned when that one was winning just about everything in sight. To show how fates can swing here in HRP World, just five races later, that same Winned ran third as the 1-20 favourite in a $100.000 claimer and was claimed in spite of a nearly $2,000.000, bankroll, and has failed to hit the board in two races for his new connections. C’est la vie. So, that leaves us with a field of young turf runners looking for a very big payday and better treatment by the fates in the future. Mb Stables sends out three runners, each with a sudden, surprise interest in the turf, and any one of them likely to score a surprise (or favourite) win. All of the lads in this race have limited resumes, especially on the green stuff, but after McWicked I like grade one winner Western Knight and hot hand Bear Head to fill the board. Here’s the handicap, however messed up I have it:
Horse Owner Odds SRF
McWicked Mb Stables *2-1 99
Western Knight Our Athletes 5-1 96
Bear Head Maxmillion Farm 3-1 100
Extravagant Bigchief Stables 7-2 99
Hail Justice Team 7 Illusions 6-1 96
Neon Lightning Nakamura Stables 4-1 97
Man In A Box Nakamura Stables 5-1 96
Scorched Mb Stables 8-1 99
Woodcock Royalty Stables 10-1 95
Side Eye Mb Stables 12-1 97
Nationalist TwinTowersRacing 12-1 92
Woodcock is in good form placing in a high-priced overnighter at SAR last and the $125.000 Snow Chief Stakes at SA the race before but stepping up to a $2,000.000 race may be a step too far for a somewhat lightly raced colt which just doesn’t have the depth of experience.
2 Bear Head Maxmillion Farm 100
Bear Head just walked away with the grade 2 Secretariat Stakes at CNL, paying back his purchase price and then some in just two races. The gelding has been a natural on the turf since he first stepped hoof on the surface seven races ago, winning his first two starts both stakes races. He looks one of the main threats for the big coin here.
3 Side Eye Mb Stables 97
What am I supposed to do with this? Coming from the top stable, he’s thumping along placing in dirt sprints at mid-level tracks, and out of the clear blue, they take him to a top track, place him in a turf route and he wins like an old pro. Now he shows up here with turf works that challenge most any horse in this race. Well, stop it, Dan. I have enough on my plate without trying to figure out if you’ve managed to create some unbeatable turf monster. Win this one, and I will support him in the next big race.
4 Nationalist TwinTowersRacing 92
This lightly raced colt tried a couple on turf and placed fairly well at a mile, but the stepped off the turf to break his maiden and now is back to try for the brass ring. I’d have to say that stepping up from a maiden win into any kind of stakes race is a huge challenge, stepping up from a dirt win to a $2,000.000 turf stakes is a massive undertaking, and I know one guy who just might pull it off.
5 Hail Justice Team 7 Illusions 96
Hail Justice seems to be getting stronger every race, and I think his recent performances in the grade two National Museum of Racing and the grade 3 Manila at SAR have shown him getting tighter at the wire. It hasn’t been that long since his maiden win, and I see him as a big upset chance here. This is my dark horse.
6 Extravagant Bigchief Stables 99
Extravagant won the grade three Pennine Ridge at SAR at 1 1/16 miles and came back to place third in the grade two Read Stakes at DMR at 1 1/8 miles against older most recently to show us some of the best form in this race. Looking at his history, he shouldn’t have any trouble shortening back up to one mile and make his presence very known down the stretch.
7 Western Knight Our Athletes 96
This I see as a big chance for victory here as long as a mile doesn’t make the race end to soon for him. He’s been working with a steady diet of longer route races highlighted by a one-length victory in the prestigious grade one American Turf at CD at 1 1/16 miles. Plus he comes here off a wire-to-wire win in the $250.000 KD Preview Nashville Derby. He handled the mile well as a maiden, he’ll handle it well now.
8 Man In A Box Nakamura Stables 96
Man In A Box won the $100.000 Murphy Stakes at PIM by an open margin, but had trouble with the graded attempts, so I’m afraid it may take some experience to get to this level.
9 Scorched Mb Stables 99
Scorched won the $100.000 Allison Derby at SUN directly after breaking his maiden. However, a steady diet of dirt graded races has led to a steady stream of also-rans. Now… this is Mb Stables after all, now… they test him on the turf, and he fires a mile faster than just about any horse works in this race. So, here he is , making his turf debut in a $2,000.000 turf stakes. Not just one blow our mind horse in this race, but two.
10 McWicked Mb Stables 99
Make that three because he also has the race favourite in McWicked. More of the same: up until two races ago this horse had never raced on turf. June 10, a work on the turf of 1:34 3/5H and June 22, a win on the grass in the $100.000 Tale of the Cat Stakes at MTH, followed up with a victory in the grade two National Museum of Racing at SAR. So, two starts on turf, two wins on turf. Mb Stables has three horses in this race and not a one has lost a race on turf.
11 Neon Lightning Nakamura Stables 97
Neon Lightning has been near flawless since switching over to turf in late January, particularly his last three, a second in the $275.000 Audubon and the $250.000 American Derby at CD and a four-length romp in the $150.000 La Jolla Handicap at DMR. I know this is a step up and he’ll have to slide back to a mile, but he sure looked full of run winning at 1 1/16 miles and he broke his maiden at a mile at the same massive margin, so I’m giving this lad a lot of respect.
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded