1 Officer Outcast, trained by Downwind Stables

With the three years old seemingly given a boost recently I can understand why Downwind has thrown this gelding into the mix in a race in which he looks well outclassed. A cheap claimer and well beaten before being bought for just twelve dollars he managed two ungraded stakes wins making a mockery of that form. Most of that improvement seems to have come from a change to turf after failing so often on dirt but it has to be said his limitations did look exposed in his last start when taking on graded company for the first time. That was in the DMR Handicap and he never really got involved finishing well back in seventh. I will shave my privates and do a streak if this one wins but with HRP being a bit of a lottery sometimes I may just sharpen the razor in case.

2 Spanish Showboat, trained by Mb Stables

It looked like this super five year old was going to take the season by storm when he made all to win the Woodford Turf Classic but whilst he has run well since he hasn’t looked as sharp as he did that day. It is possible the wide speed push gave him a lead that day and it won’t happen again but even if he runs his more normal race and comes from a little further back you have to give him a big chance. Forgetting his rather good run in the Gold Cup as that was on the dirt he could only managed eighth in the Arlington Million last time out but got rather stuck in traffic and was only three lengths back at the line. You do have to take the rough with the smooth with this one as he isn’t the most consistent of horses but at his best he wins hands down today so we will just have to wait to see which horse turns up today.

3 Sri Lanka, trained by Axeman

Like a lot of the older generation he has enjoyed a huge season even as his whiskers turn a subtle shade of grey. Three triple digit speed figures in his last three starts tell you he is bang in form and his scrambling win over this trip in the AP St Legar last time was good enough to put him right in eth firing line today. Will this one add to the list of improbable old age pensioners that have sprung into the limelight this year, well there is no reason why not but he will have to be at his very best to take this one out. Probably his best race of the year came when carrying top weight in the Manhattan Handicap and finishing close fourth behind Breiterate and excellent performance as he was giving weight to all that beat him.

4 Skhyperion, trained by Yahudi Stables

I won’t be doing any streaks if this three year old wins as with the weight advantage he may well run a big race. Having said that I don’t believe three pounds puts him anywhere near the likes of Sri lanka but the three year olds at HRP have been flying recently and that must make you take notice of the colt. Second in the Breeders Stakes over this trip last time he ran pretty well in the BEL Derby and won the Pennine Ridge before that so has certainly shown some ability against his own age group but he is a long way from the best three year old on turf and I think he would have to be to win today.

5 Tucson, trained by Aer Stables

If you have an old horse who can run a bit you may as well throw him in the big races because you never know. That seems to have been a sad fact just recently and this one claimed for $35 in July looks a real hit and hope. He actually ran a great race to be a closing second in the Johns Call last time but surely that isn’t good enough today? Or is it. His works have been pretty good and his last start was nice so you can’t write him off but it would be a big surprise if this six year old is ready to run the race of his life today.

6 One Off , trained by Chili King Stables

A winner of five from nine he has been sold more times than a cheap hooker but seems to have found a home with his current trainer and is settling in well. He ran much better than expected in the Arlington Million last time out running on well to be sixth beaten just two lengths and his works have actually been as good as any of these recently so you have to give the four year old son of Chai latte a pretty good chance. I guess the question will be how he will handle the draw but his running style suggests he is happy anywhere but a long way last so as long as he doesn’t get hung out to dry he should be Ok.

7 Eve Of Destruction, trained by Emerald Racing Inc

At five years old this gelding is having his best season ever and is coming off a career best win in the Arlington Million last time. In fact every race he has run this year has earned triple digit speed figures which makes it even more surprising that the Million win is his only one of the season. Having said that he has been in the very best races all year and has yet to finish out of the money so on balance he is the best horse in the race, so what can beat him? The draw could be sticky but he is happy enough on the speed so that should be OK. He hasn’t got the services of his usual jokeys today so that may be a factor but I have to say he still looks the best in the race.

8 Mean Street, trained by Nakamura Stables

A winner of only one race this year this could well turn out to be the dark horse of the race. That win came last time out in a big open allowance at DMR and he beat some good horses very easily and it could be a matter of an extreme trip, a five year old getting an improvement bump and a trainer who can find one from the left field that give this one a winning chance. Looking at his works they are every bit as good as the best of these on turf so it may just come down to what the outside gate to do to his chances.

SUMMARY

Well there are two horses that can’t win this race but with HRP being the lottery it can be at times you would do as well to put your hard earned dollars on one of those as try and pick the winner out of the best three horses in the race. On balance I have to go for Eve Of Destruction to beat Sri Lanka and Spanish Showboat but I have a sneaking suspicion that Mean Street may run a big race.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES