BC Turf (Grade 1)- $5,000.000 Purse
DMR- For Three Year Olds and Upward
One Mile and One Half on the Turf
November 2, 2024

It’s the biggest race of the year for turf horses, and the second biggest race of the BC: the 22nd running of the BC Turf. This year, the purse has been increased to $5,000.000, up a $1,000.000 from where it had been since 2016, and more than double what it was back in 2003. Looking back in history, this is a race where Bronze Sabre won twice, coming in 2009 and 2010, and Dogma won it a few years before that. Other big winners include Clockwork Chai and Billy Joel. This year, we will have the opportunity to see history as King Que Niagra returns to the scene in hopes of accomplishing what Bronze Sabre was able to do. We’ll get to him towards the end of this preview, but certainly he is very capable of accomplishing the double. Thirteen others are hoping that there will a new winner, so let’s take our run through the field for this great race:

1- Penal Hockey Party (Maxmillion Farm, ridden by A Jimenez)- Returns to BC action for the third time in his career, but this will be the first time that the race is the BC Turf. In 2022, he ran in the BC Mile at KEE and finished seventh though greatly improved on that result last year. In fact, it was nearly a victory though he missed the head bob at the wire to Atomic Eclipse. This year, he was hit and miss in his racing early on, causing some doubts as to whether or not he would get into the BC again. That all changed in September, when he went to KD and won the KD Turf Cup, which is a win and you’re in race. I like that he has proven himself in the BC before, but he has not been consistent enough this year for me to put him in my picks.

2- Grand Opening (Riggins Racing, ridden by J R Velazquez)- Looking all of the barns he passed through early in his career, you have to wonder how many trainers are wondering what might have been with them. Grand Opening really is a great example of what can happen when you are patient with a horse, whenever that argument needs to be made. I would never have had that level of patience. Riggins has, and qualified him for the BC Mile last year, a race that he finished fourth. He’s been great this year, finishing first or second in five races this year, and that includes victories in the Grade 1 Forester Turf Classic and the Grade 1 AP Million. I have no problem throwing out his dud in the KD Turf Cup, but whatever did happen there needs to be an outlier.

3- Rearranger (Mb Stables, ridden by M Franco)- The first of the three-year-olds in the race, and they will all get a four-pound weight allowance against their elders here. Rearranger was purchased late in 2023 for $400.000, and Mb Stables put the gelding on the TC trail early this year. The results were not necessarily terrible, but when you are in this barn, they will certainly not be good enough and Rearranger was moved to the grass in July. That’s a move that completely changed the complexion of his career, as he would win the Grade 1 BEL Derby Invitational at AQU in his turf debut and then followed that up by winning the Grade 1 SAR Derby at the Spa. His last two races have not been up to the same standard, but he should be able to bounce back here.

4- Cascade King (Nakamura Stables, ridden by A A Gallardo)- You can make a great case for and against this one’s chances in the BC Turf. Let’s begin with the positive, and that’s the fact that he hit the board in all seven of his races this year. Two of them are wins, highlighted by the Grade 3 Kelso Stakes at SAR in July. He knows how to be near the front at the wire, and it would seem silly to think that he could not be again. Now, here’s the flip side: the Grade 3 Kelso Stakes isn’t the BEL Derby, the SAR Derby, or the AP Million. Cascade King has not run in any Grade 1’s this year, so if he had, would he have been as consistent? The encouraging thing is his last race, the Grade 2 John Henry Turf, and it’s $750.000 purse, where he was second and beat both Rearranger and Penal Hockey Party by a full length. I think he could have been competitive in the Grade 1’s if he had the opportunity.

5- Ziccio (Night Rider Stables, ridden by J J Castellano)- Last year, Ziccio finished tenth in the BC Turf, and I am not really confident that he is about to do much more than that here. That’s a bit of a bold negative statement that I don’t usually say, but I just don’t think that he has been consistent enough in 2024 to allow for confidence that he is about to beat the monsters of the division here. Finishing third in three races, including the AP Million, is what allowed him to qualify for the race, and his lone win of the year was in the Grade 2 Whittingham Stakes at SA. He’s turned in some triple digit SRF’s this year, and if the AP Million side of him shows up that he can content. I simply feel that this will be more like his last race for him: the Hirsch Turf Classic. I have been very wrong before. By the way, J J Castellano only being 9-for-124 this year is a travesty. Obviously, he’s better than that, and certainly Night Rider knows that. Glad to still see him get a mount he deserves here.

6- Albaquirky (Santan Stables, ridden by L Dettori)- After an amazing five-year-old season saw him win six out of nine races and earn $1,500.000, Albaquirky started doing things differently this year. He had accomplished that as a sprinter but was a non-factor in the BC Turf Sprint. The trainer also had to deal with rain frequently early on, but that did not hinder the progress of Albaquirky, as the gelding won the Kilroe Mile (Grade 1) and then after two more strong races, he won the Grade 1 Manhattan in June, proving that he could handle a longer distance. Last time out saw him be victorious as well, taking the Grade 2 John Henry Turf at SA. This is certainly a resume that puts him as one of the better choices in this race, but with his style, it will be important for Dettori to work his way through the traffic efficiently in the stretch.

7- King Z (Mb Stables, ridden by F Prat)- Mb Stables worked his magic with this one, claiming him for just $16.000 late last year, and two starts later King Z won the Grade 3 McKnight Stakes at GP, which is at a mile and a half. Continued to run well as the year went on, and he would adjust his running style from a front runner to a closer this summer here in the Grade 2 Read Stakes and won that as well. King Z has therefore shown that he can be successful with any running style, so his competitors will not be able to predict what kind of race we will see out of him on Saturday. Like Grand Opening, he is another horse that passed through a lot of barns early on and may have those trainers wishing they hung on to him, or at least got more for him.

8- Neds Influence (The Sidley Stud, ridden by F Geroux)- Over his career, Neds Influence has been a steady producer, but perhaps could be one of those horses that would leave you thinking that he could do a little more. His two victories this year came in the Grade 3 San Luis Rey Stakes at SA and the Grade 2 DMR Handicap, the race that got him into the BC Turf. Now, I have the same concern him that I have with Cascade King, and that’s the most of his races this year have not really been against the best horses in this division. Even the DMR Handicap had a field that doesn’t bring another horse into the BC Turf. Last time out, he was in the Hirsch Turf Classic, which was against many of these, and he was fifth, beaten by two lengths. He’s competitive when he’s out there, but this is a field full of starts. His speed figures show that he can have his day and pull this off, but I find others in a little more appealing.

9- Martinez (Royalty Stables, ridden by D E Centeno)- Martinez ran in the BC Turf last year, and had a good run of form leading into the race. However, he was soundly beaten in that race, defeating only one his rivals. This year did not start all that well for him, and it would lead to him being dropped into an open allowance at CD in late April. While he did not win that one, either, it seemed to get him going again, leading to a victory in the BEL Gold Cup. Continued to look good at the Spa after that by running second in the Bowling Green (Grade 2) but has been flat since then. Beaten by five lengths in the KD Turf Cup and could only manage third in the Grade 3 Singspiel last month.

10- Well Done (Team 7 Illusions, ridden by D Davis)- You’re not going to find a whole lot to talk about with this three-year-old. He’s made just nine starts, and not much went on in the first five of them. A couple of strong performances over the summer would lead to the trainer giving him a shot in the $2,500.000 Grade 3 Nashville Derby, but he was soundly defeated. It was his first race with Lasix, and his last one. Then, we have his last race, where Well Done emphatically burst onto the scene by winning the Grade 1 Hirsch Turf Classic, taking down several rivals that he will be seeing again. That effort got him a 103 SRF and now he looks to do it again. He may or may not cash a check here on Saturday, but the future is very bright for him.

11- King Que Niagra (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by P Lopez)- If you’re reading this, you already know that King Que Niagra is one of the best horses in the game, and has been for a while. Last year, he added the BC Turf to his very impressive resume and comes here to try and do what only Bronze Sabre has done and win the BC Turf two times. Last year’s win in this race was the third in a row for this gelding, as he had won the Sword Dancer and the Hirsch Turf Classic right before, and after the BC was done, he had another big win up his sleeve, taking the Pegasus World Cup Turf (Grade 1) in January. Finishing second in the Kilroe Mile ended the streak, but King Que Niagra has continued to be strong every time he is out there. His most recent win came in July, in the Grade 2 United Nations. Seven of his last eight races have seen an SRF of at least 101, so he is still a force. Is there something negative that can be said about him? Well, all (but one in 2020) of his races where he has started from a double-digit post have led to lesser performances by his standards. But it’s been a while since he has started from out here.

12- Life Is Beautiful (Riggins Racing, ridden by S X Bridgmohan)- This gelding might be flying under the radar within this division in terms of name recognition that others get. Life Is Beautiful has really done nothing wrong over his career, especially when you look at races from late 2023 and onward. He passed through a few barns early on, but it was with Luz International that the results began to come. However, after Life Is Beautiful won the Grade 3 Connally BC Turf this January, it was on to Riggins Racing for $230.000. That has paid off almost immediately, as he would go to GP and win the Grade 2 Diarmida in their first race together. This set off a stretch of hitting the board in all six of races in Riggins silks, with another win coming in the Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano. But, if you were worried about him not necessarily facing the strongest competitors in this division, those concerns were put to bed last time out with a victory in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer. Riggins has opted not to run him after that race, so he will certainly come into the BC Turf fresh. Works well, runs well, and is ready to run a big race right here on the biggest stage.

13- Fanatical Empire (Smokey Stover, ridden by Mario Gutierrez)- One of the most exciting three-year-old turf stars in the game right now, and regardless of how this race goes here, it will be exciting to see how his career unfolds afterwards. For the here and now, Fanatical Empire will look to pick up his fifth win of the year. His first graded victory came April at KEE in the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes, and it should be mentioned that he accomplished that while beginning from post 12. Won the Grade 2 American Turf right after that. Each of those wins came on soft turf, so the trainer might have been smiling at some earlier weather forecasts. Not expected to be wet now, though. Was third in the Hirsch Turf Classic last time out, with nothing being concerning about his performance. I’d love to see a current work, though, more out of curiosity than anything else.

14- Killer Instinct (Mb Stables, ridden by W T Buick)- This is the third time that Killer Instinct has made the BC. As a two-year-old, he was a part of the BC Juvenile, but only beat one horse. Two years later, he ran in this one, and only lost to one horse. So, there is a bit of unfinished business for last year’s runner up, and he would hit the board in five out of seven races this year, including two wins. Those victories were in the Grade 2 Pan American at GP, and last month in the Grade 3 Singpiel Stakes. With a little more luck at the wire, he could have also added wins in the Manhattan and United Nations. Has earned SRF’s of 100 or more in eight of his last nine and should be able to adapt to this post.

Prediction: 13-11-12-6

— NS

Categories: BC 2024, Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, THE BREEDERS CUP