Lake Ontario Stakes ($100.000 Purse)
WO- For Colts and Geldings Three Years Old Foaled In ON
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt
November 10, 2023

While many of us are still thinking about what happened in the BC, the race calendar never stops, and we move on to the next weekend. The Lake Ontario Stakes will not be a race that makes people forget about the BC, but it’s happening on Friday and offers a decent purse so we can still take a look at it. It’s a bit unique in that it is restricted to male horses and runs for the third time. Last year, State General won the race, doing so for Mb Stables, and he’s had a quality four-year-old season. There are five heading to the gate for this race, and it may not really look like more than an allowance field. But, hey, let’s look at it anyway!

#1- Lunar Victory (Fractious, ridden by P Husbands)- One win in eleven starts, and that came in his debut over a year ago while here at WO. In his last nine race, he has only hit the board once, and that came in his last start, where he was third in an optional claimer at SA. He is working well, but that’s never really been a problem for him. It’s time to translate that to the track in a race, and maybe a small field will benefit him.

#2- Entrusted (Nakamura Stables, ridden by E J Wilson)- Has a worse winning percentage than Lunar Victory, since he has only one win in twelve starts, but he’s done a little better at hitting the board. For his last start, he ran here three weeks ago in the Grade 3 ONT Derby, and was beaten by seven lengths, failing to beat anyone. He has beaten a combined two horses (and dead heating a third) in his last three races.

#3- Treat Me First (Crocker Ggs, ridden by L Contreras)- Well, we can’t say this one has more victories than the two starting to his inside, but he’s been more productive. He’s made six starts, winning one, which came here in June. Since then, he’s run in a pair of stakes, and comes here well rested off of the $400.000 Prince Of Wales Stakes out at FE, where he was second. Beaten by three lengths but running second in that one is something to be happy about. Working exceptionally well and may be the one to beat in here.

#4- Short Order (Crocker Ggs, ridden by R M Hernandez)- The only horse in this field that has won more than one race. He’s been to the winner’s circle twice, with the more recent win coming at ELP in an allowance in July. After that, he took on his stablemate in the Prince Of Wales Stakes, and finished just one spot behind him, running third. Works don’t stand out the same way as they do for Treat Me First, but there’s nothing wrong with them, either.

#5- Tropical Sin (Power Racing, ridden by M Pinto)- Won his last start, but that was just his first win in ten races, and it came in a $40.000 maiden claimer at AQU. Most of his career has been in maiden claimers and not maiden special weights, albeit at mid to high level tracks, so on the surface, this seems to be quite a leap of faith that the trainer has in him. With no real standouts here, anything can happen, and that includes him putting a winning streak together.

Prediction: 3-4-5-1

— NS

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded